Will President Biden’s Response to Putin Win the War of Public Opinion?
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, the pictures continue to just get worse and worse out of Ukraine, where Putin’s tactics continue to get more gruesome by the day. How will President Biden’s response to those tactics impact his approval at home? That’s where we begin before turning to some new post-SOTU polling and tidbits with a return to Georgil-Vania.
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Let’s begin…
WHERE DOES PRESIDENT BIDEN GO FROM HERE?
POTUS holding a cabinet meeting on the Ukraine crisis last week (Credit: Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images News)
MURPHY: With the tragic events in Ukraine entered a high drama phase, is President Biden moving up or down in political standing with voters? While I think his working of the international inside game has been very strong, the political question for Hacks like us is how go his political fortunes? How will Biden look politically in 30 days; too strong, risking a nuclear standoff with an increasingly unbalanced looking Vladimir Putin, or two weak with daily images of Ukrainian civilians dying under brutal Russian attacks? My view is mixed, which Biden off to a good start but looking a bit wobbly as of late. The big NYT story from David Sanger about the massive surge in new arms shipments from the USA/NATO to Ukraine should help; I think Biden should also put a big spotlight on those numbers – with lots of updates – to constantly show both resolve and accelerating action. It looks like Biden will call for an embargo of Russian oil imports today. It’s a good move and Biden out to make a big deal out of it; why not go big and ask the American people to enlist an embargo to help Ukraine and punish Russia? I think it would play, and to the nervous White House political staffers who will want to downplay it as they fret about even higher gas prices (yesterday I saw a $6.00 a gallon price sign here in gas tax crazy CA today, albeit near Gibbs’ favorite elite hangouts and custom sharkskin suit makers in Beverly Hills) being a political killer for Biden, I say don’t worry he’s already looking politically sunk in the midterms… how much worse can it get? So, try a big move; rally the country against Russia and make high gas prices about something else that people can get behind.
GIBBS: Yeah, in addition to Sanger’s piece, Murphy, there was also a pretty fascinating story reported by CNN about the Eastern European base we’re shuffling weapons through. The war is now getting very real with a near constant number of tragic stories and gruesome pictures, sadly more every day. There’s also the impact in this country from gas to food prices. Our decision on Russian oil and gas is a much easier one now than it was last week. Europe is far more dependent on Russia for energy. I think the initial resistance from Biden was a combination of not wanting to get ahead of something Europe will have a harder time doing and therefore appearing less together in sanctions and actions, plus the worry about what it would mean for global oil prices and the cost of a gallon of gas here in the United States. Biden looks likely to move on the ban later today because it’s the right thing to do.
MURPHY: It would be the smart move. I remember back in 1991 when my client John Engler was elected Governor of Michigan in an upset. We did a lot of tough stuff in year one and had the awful polling numbers to prove it. Cagey Engler’s attitude about the polling was smart; double down. “If I’m already Dracula, let’s use that to be fearless and do more tough but needed stuff and fix the state. It’ll work in the end.” It did. Despite CW breathlessly predicting his bad early polling numbers meant he’d was a one term dead duck, John Engler went on to win three terms.
GIBBS: The price of gas has gone up 63 cents a gallon since the terrible invasion began 12 days ago, with the national average above $4.
The good news for Biden is that, at least according to a new Reuters poll, some 62% of respondents said paying more for fuel and gas because of the crisis is worthwhile to defend another democratic country. So, hopefully the White House can take some cues and continue to shut Putin out economically.
BIDEN’S POST STATE OF THE UNION BUMP – IS IT REAL?
GIBBS: Speaking of polls, there was an NPR poll out Friday that showed a big change in his Ukrainian approval (+17%!) and a fairly large change in his overall approval. It showed his overall approval up 8% to 47 percent. It showed big gains among independents (+10%) and Democrats (+11%). Does this represent fundamentally people looking at him differently? Or is this an outlier poll? This morning, another poll, this one from Politico and Morning Consult showed a +4% in his approval (to 45%) and a decrease of 5% in his disapproval (down to 51%). Definitely worth watching. Was this because of the State of the Union? Are people reassessing their view of Biden on Ukraine? Rallying around the flag? We'll probably know more later in the week when we see other posts State of the Union poll. Right now, as you can see, we have more questions than answers!
MURPHY: It’s going to be quite a week in DC as the big wave of post-SOTU and mid Ukraine crisis public polling starts to run it. The narrative of D.C.’s neurotic opinion salons will be less about the actual numbers and more about the direction. Are Biden’s numbers – even if still shaky – improving? Moving up. That will create a feedback loop; and a growing perception that Biden is back in the political hunt. If they move down, it’ll be the opposite and that will be grim for the White House political team. Get your popcorn ready. And better yet, listen to the new episode of our Hacks on Tap podcast when it drops tonight, as we talk polling with Dem Super-pollster Mark Mellman.
POLLING? SCHMOLLING?
We ask the Man Who Knows, tonight on Hacks on Tap!
Mark S. Mellman, President & CEO, The Mellman Group - Our Guest This Week on the Podcast!
TIDBITS:
MURPHY: Since it’s been a while, I think it’s worth getting back to our obsession with Georgil-vania. In Pennsylvania, where David McCormick continues to apply a needed, but sad glassy MAGA red paint job to his candidacy with an Earl Scheib level of hard sell and gusto (80’s flash back here...)
Public polling – hoping for more soon – shows a wide open GOP race with all three contenders stuck in the low teens and within the margin of error. Now it’s time to let the race cook a bit. Unlike many past PA primaries, none of the R’s have a traditional geographic base; no Congressmen or local muscle from the west, center or east from the mighty Philly burbs. These are all media creation candidates: McCormick and Sands from early TV ad spending and Doc Oz from his TV show. Need to let this one cook a while, and of course a Trump endorsement would have a strong impact. All three are sucking up to him.
GIBBS: Yes, and turning to Georgia, a new poll there has Herschel Walker way up for the GOP nomination set to face the incumbent Raphael Warnock. Though on the less Trumpy side of things, Governor Brian Kemp continues to outpoll former Senator David Perdue. It turns out even the Trump wing of the party can see right through Perdue.
MURPHY: I’ll just add that the crafty Kemp is outraising Perdue and blowing him out in TV spend, hammering Perdue with attack ads. So far it’s working, even with Perdue’s support from El Trumpo.
See you on Friday!
Murphy and Gibbs