Will Biden’s Big Win Matter In November?
Hello Hackaroos,
We’ll begin with last night’s very big BREAKING NEWS: FBI Raids/Searches Mar-a-Lago apparently looking for classified material Trump left the White House with in 2021.
Then, we’ll dive into what we planned to be our main topic: President Biden and the Democrats finally got the win they were (mostly) looking for. But as both parties’ election schemers in Hackworld are asking: how much will any of it matter in November? Plus a few tidbits around today’s big primary in Wisconsin.
Let’s begin!
Hard Knocks From a No-Knock Warrant
GIBBS: Just when you think you’ve seen it all, the FBI comes knocking. We will likely learn more on this over the next few days, but what we do know is that the highest levels of the Justice Department and a Federal judge, convinced of probable cause that a crime was committed, had to sign off on entering the house of a former President.
MURPHY: That’s the big question, Gibbsie. Fact is, nobody knows anything about this, yet, other than a Federal judge had to look at the request, read it over and then utter the well-known legal term Holy F*&k, see probable cause and sign the warrant. We know it’s Federal and we know it’s real – FBI raids of ex-President’s residences are no small matter – so this whole caper will be very big (and historic). Politically the question is how credible will Joe Public find the charge? If Trump allegedly broke the law about taking secret documents out of the White House, the Orange Menace will have plenty of room to scream victim and his loyal (if shrinking) goat herd will line up behind him. We can already see that House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy has taken the whole Be A German General Und Follow Zee Orders persona to heart and has lined up behind Trump 110% (before any real facts are known).
Stepping back and looking at this whole mad thing, I will close with my favorite funny tweet of the month from Late Night with Seth Meyers writer Mike Scollins (@mikescollins):
Biden Gets a Big Win, Now What?
GIBBS: So we're 13 weeks away from Election Day and the most pressing question for the political world to ponder at the moment is with the Democrats big legislative package cutting drug prices, making health insurance more affordable and big investments in fighting climate change package virtually done, how does this change the trajectory of the election for President Biden and the Democrats?
Make no mistake, Joe Biden has accomplished a lot legislatively in the first two years of his term in the White House, no one can argue with that even if you don’t agree with it all. The last few weeks have seen huge investments in computer chip manufacturing, a health bill for suffering veterans, an expanded NATO to combat Putin’s aggression, just to name a few. Like him or not, the history books, when you add in the infrastructure funding, the COVID recovery legislation and more, will remember this period as an important one. But, will it change voter’s minds a little more than 3 months before this consequential election?
The obvious and unsatisfying answer is it's too soon to tell. So, let me outline some things to think about and watch as we figure this all out. Part of me wants to say that this impressive legislative bounty will have a hard time changing hearts and minds for the simple reason that a lot of it won’t impact people directly for some time. I say that having sat through 2010 in the White House after we passed healthcare reform – a big (f’ing) deal for the country and for Democrats. The problem was it would be years before it would make a positive difference in their lives. What they could feel back then was an economy that wasn’t firing on all cylinders after the crash of 2008. Yes, the numbers were improving, but it just wasn’t enough. Today, Joe Biden and Democrats on the ballot in 2022 are fighting the very real feeling on inflation and increased prices for energy, food, school supplies, you name it. So, right now these legislative accomplishments most won’t feel in the short-term are fighting against economic pain people are feeling acutely every single day.
But, all hope is not lost for Democrats. Just take a look at both the Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight.com’s tale of the tape on the generic Congressional ballot.
Real Clear Politics' Roundup:
Source: Real Clear Politics
Five Thirty Eight's Roundup:
Yup, 13 weeks to go, in a pretty terrible political environment for Democrats and the vaunted generic ballot now shows Dems and GOPers virtually tied. This is one to watch over the next several weeks to see if and how it changes after these legislative wins.
Of course, also worth watching with be Joe Biden’s approval ratings.
Real Clear Politics' Roundup:
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Five Thirty Eight's Roundup:
FiveThirtyEight.com
Here, Joe Biden’s numbers continue to sit below 40% nationally. In swing states with hotly contested races, the President’s net approval is decidedly more negative than Democrats up for re-election.
Source: Morning Consult
Surely, Dems are benefitting from bad nominees and lackluster campaigns from many GOPers in tossup states. As we’ve discussed a lot recently, can Democrats up in 2022 defy history and political gravity to outrun an unpopular party leader? Again, these numbers bear watching because if Democrats can get a little help here it could mean a big difference in November’s results. Also, we can’t overlook the role abortion could play as well throughout the country this Fall. Was Kansas a canary (Jayhawk?) in the coal mine? To me, the most telling piece of data I’ve seen in in the past few days is optimism about the future of inflation and what that could foretell about how voters see their personal economic situations heading into Election Day. To be sure, a lot worth watching closely to see what happens next.
Murphy, the Democrats finally did what the Democrats had been trying to do for a year and a half, will it change the political fortune of this election?
MURPHY: I think they are still sunk in the House, but the Senate races are getting more interesting. Sure, Biden’s at long last legislative victory will finally end the parade of NYC/DC “think” pieces meowing about his fumbles on the Hill. But voter-land doesn’t follow that stuff in search of the right CW line to use on a daytime cable news hit. In the real world it’s gas and food prices. But… Biden’s win does give the D’s something to fight with: drug prices, climate, and most of all: GOP stupidity. The Dems now have their own set of attack issues (Roe, veterans, insulin cap) that all play nicely in a real family dinner table issues election. Combined with weak GOP Senate candidates in many key races, the D’s now have the means (and the small donor fueled money engine) to go on offense. But… do they know how? The Democratic communications machine, at least over the last year, has been nothing to brag about. If they can execute, and if the GOP continues to be too cocky and tactically stupid (and the federal prisoner currently known as Trump, Donald insists upon putting himself in the center of the midterm spotlight), the Republicans may well blow what should be an easy opportunity to win the Senate in a wave election.
GIBBS: I think historically, the last six weeks and really the last year and a half are going to stack up pretty well for Joe Biden and for Senate Democrats, particularly when the history books cover the fact that it was a 50-50 Senate. I just don't know whether that's going to necessarily translate into the voting booth in 2022. That’s because people are still being driven largely by their emotions around the economy and predominantly inflation. Some real feeling around gas prices declining and some psychological impact around inflation would have a bigger impact on how people feel about an election 13 weeks from now than legislation that they probably really won't feel. There’s also the question if it will begin to help Biden's approval rating? We don't see a lot of evidence of that to this point. And we still need some improvement in Biden's overall political standing or it really is counter to the laws of political gravity that you're going to have a lot of people in swing states in places like Georgia who are going to be able to out run a 25% presidential approval. Though I will say that there is a little bit more of a sense in the macro political environment that the overwhelming tidal wave from Republicans is likely to be less so. That seems now to be not necessarily correlated between what just happened or the President's political standing, but just the fact that they've got, in a lot of important races, weaker candidates who just aren't running good races.
TIDBITS:
GIBBS: I’ll start with Georgia where the Fulton County special Grand Jury continues to get interesting. Lindsey Graham and a couple of the Orange Menace’s team of brilliant superlawyers, including John Eastman, are fighting subpoenas to compelling them to testify. And it looks like Rudy Giuliani is trying to get a doctor’s note to avoid his own testimony scheduled for today because of an “invasive” procedure. Knowing the record of the MAGA world’s presidential doctors, sort of sounds like an “evasive” procedure to me.
One other tidbit, it is really interesting to see the reaction of the business community in Indiana around the legislature's approval of a virtually no exceptions abortion ban. It’s not exactly a traditional liberal state, but when some of the state's biggest employers are saying they're going to look outside of the state to expand jobs, it gives you a sense that this is not just a cultural thing that is going to play out, but in a number of these states moving toward very restrictive abortion policies, it's going to be an economical one too.
MURPHY: Businesses today face a very different HR world than a generation ago. In a brain power-based economy, recruiting new talent is everything and talent these days cares deeply about corporate social responsibility. So states making themselves into pariahs on issues like extreme abortion policy or gay marriage rights will pay a huge price economically, losing employers that cannot be at a fatal disadvantage in recruiting. Eli Lilly is making that point very clearly in Indiana and more businesses are certain to join in. Unless they want to hinge their entire state economy to a 60 employee My Pillow factory, Red state Governors had best smarten up and fast.
GIBBS: The big primaries we’re watching today are in Wisconsin where Democrats will almost certainly nominate Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes to take on vulnerable incumbent GOP Sen. Ron Johnson. In the very important Governor’s race, it’s another showdown between a Trump-endorsed candidate (construction exec Tim Michels, who’s pumped millions of his own money into the race against a Mike Pence/Scott Walker-endorsed former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch. Other states going to the polls today include Connecticut, Minnesota and Vermont. More on these results later in the week.
See you on Friday!
Murphy and Gibbs