Which News Cycle Wins in November?
Hello Hackaroos!
We are fresh off the autumnal equinox telling us Fall is in the air and that means Election Day is rapidly approaching! And much to the chagrin of Mitch McConnell, Supreme Leader Trump just won’t go away and leave the midterm elections in peace; his legal woes continue to fill the headlines and his candidates continue to fill the ballot. How much will the Trump headlines impact the vote in November versus headlines about everything else going on in the world (namely inflation and all things economy…and even Ukraine)? That’s the question we consider in this issue. Plus, the latest on the House race, a great Mailbag question, and tidbits.
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Let’s begin…
Will Trump, Trump All Else with Voters?
Former President Donald Trump campaigning for Senate nominee JD Vance in Ohio last week spoke (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)
GIBBS: We've been saying what dominates the conversation and campaigns could be decisive in the Fall. While obviously we've got a lot of news cycles to go, looking at the last few days, Trump seems to be, well, everywhere. The past few days have seen a majority-Trump appointed Appeals Court ruling in the Justice Department’s favor and allowing the further investigation of Top Secret documents and a big civil suit against Trump and his family, courtesy of the New York Attorney General. All in all, this can’t be (and isn’t) good for Republicans on the ballot in November. Meanwhile, a new poll from Florida shows Governor Ron DeSantis (fresh off his terrible political stunt now being investigated as potential human trafficking) leading the document hiding former President (did you know Presidents can declassify Top Secret documents by “just thinking about it”?!). Not to mention, Trump gets 52% with Republican voters in a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll (down 5 points from where he was a month ago). That means around 50% of the GOP is not with Trump right now. (By the way, in that same poll, Biden has his highest approval rating since December). So, it’s an interesting set of dynamics as we know he's inserted himself in such a fashion for this campaign that it gets people excited on both sides. But, I think the upside for Democrats is far, far greater than the upside for Republicans, leading to a very engaged electorate and the possibility of record off-year election turnout.
I did love that somehow Trump brought Hillary’s emails back into the news too in that absolutely bonkers Sean Hannity interview that even seemed to have Hannity trying to cut off the former President from his wild, conspiracy-filled ranting. Now, of course, Murphy, as you’ll rightly point out, the other side of this is that the markets have tumbled a bit this week and interest rates are going up. All the talk about needing a recession to get rid of inflation could still very much override all the Trump craziness as we get closer to November. I don’t discount the power of pocketbook issues at all here. Murphy, I’m assuming you’ll more than agree with that? So where does this leave things six and a half weeks out?
MURPHY: My take is that the Orange Menace – always a heavy anchor around GOP candidate necks in a general election – has added another ton or so to his political dead weight. But I don’t think it will be enough to save Democratic control of the House. My math is simple: take the almost always midterm election loss average for the President’s party and combine it with the worst inflation rate in 40 years and, well, folks are gonna lose. It is the Senate races that are interesting and that’s where Trump has been a huge gift to the Democratic party. Between shoving whacko-bird (in John McCain’s great phrase) candidates upon the party and now lumbering his way into the general election debate to spew madness about stolen elections and howl “I’ve been framed” with the credibility of a mob torpedo being caught with a cleaver in his hand and a dead Boss’s blood still on his shiny suit, the Trump noisemaking machine is doing everything it can to divert attention from the economic issues that help Republicans onto the Trump cult craziness that hurts them. Still, I would not be surprised if some struggling GOP Senate candidates still manage to crawl over the finish line in November. But that’s ground we’ve covered before. What interests me most is more data echoing something I’ve been saying – often to hooting giggles from my Dem Hack podcasting pals – for a while; Trump is slowly melting inside GOP world. We’ve seen polls for a while with a very telling delta in the numbers. On the one hand 80%+ of Republican voters rate him favorably. But asked if Trump should be the party nominee in 2024, the numbers cut roughly in half. You can see it in the DeSantis vs. Florida numbers Gibbsie mentioned. Trump losing Florida? It’s a base state for him in the larger GOP universe. It’s now pretty clear, if given a Trump Lite alternative, a large chunk of the GOP is ready to thank Trump for his valuable, if exhausting, service… and move on.
Still, one should not underestimate him. With media expectations (and projected personal hopes?) quickly rising that the Dems will hold control of the Senate, a few GOP upsets that lead to Republican Senate control will give Trump new, if totally undeserved, bragging rights. I can already hear the media hysteria… Trump saves the Senate, Trump voters cannot be underestimated, blah, blah, blah. That will give the old anchor weight a massive shot of adrenaline. I think the bottom line is that while Trump is in decline, tactical considerations and the crazy expectations game could give him a comeback jolt – think dead Frankenstein awoken by 10,000,000 volts of electricity – and make next year even more interesting. It’s a battle between short-term Trump tactical wins versus a long term trend of decline.
The House Party
Source: The Cook Political Report / Dave Wasserman
GIBBS: Murphy, I think the economic news continues to be a driver in the House races. Of course, the dynamic in a Congressional race is quite different than in a statewide race, where you can cut a bit more of your own identity as a candidate. Our friend Dave Wasserman posted the latest scoreboard of ratings in the battle for control of the House with 31 toss-up races (though it doesn't mean that lean Democrat or lean Republican races won't help decide who controls Congress). If you just isolate those toss-up races, Republicans have to win just six out of those 31 toss-up contests. Democrats would have to win 26 out of those 31. Batting .838 is, ummm, hard. Again, lean D or R races will certainly come into play here, but you have to admit the Democratic Party maintaining control of the House is still an uphill battle even as the fortunes of Democrats have gotten better in the past two months.
MURPHY: Yup. It looks dim. The only question to me is will the Repubs finish below the sky-high expectations inside the Republican House Caucus?… If so, Kevin McCarthy’s road to the Speaker’s office may well get a lot more complicated. Plotting has already started.
TIDBITS:
GIBBS: Another week and another poll from our friends John Anzalone (Biden pollster) and Tony Fabrizio (Trump pollster), this one out of Arizona. It has Mark Kelly up eight against Blake Masters and when it’s head-to-head (leaving out the Libertarian Marc Victor), he’s up seven at 52%. Democrat Katie Hobbs is up in a very important Governor’s race. This race is a bit of a microcosm for the GOP this cycle: narrowly elected and vulnerable Dem draws a Trump-endorsed, election-denying Republican opponent in one of the most purple of all swing states for what should be among the best opportunities to flip a seat to the GOP. Today, while the race is still contested, it’s not in the GOP’s top tier. The Cook Political Report Thursday moved it from Tossup to Lean Dem. Earlier in the week, the McConnell Super PAC canceled TV buys to help Masters and, while GOP groups made up most of what McConnell scratched, it shows the GOP Senate Leader and his political team think there are better races out there right now. Maybe this is a different story at this point in the cycle if we were headed for a big wave election.
Source: NBC News / AARP
MURPHY: As Mitch would say, weak candidates do hurt you. I expect Masters to close a bit off the economy… don’t be surprised to see a late Dem panic in AZ. But money talks in campaigns and the fact that Team Mitch is pulling back TV is clear proof the GOP no longer considers Arizona a top tier pick up opportunity. Behind the scenes, there is a lot of GOP DC heat directed at Silicon Valley billionaire and Trumper Peter Thiel. His moneybag helped propel both JD Vance in the Ohio Senate primary and Blake Masters in Arizona to election victories over far better candidates in both states. Now the party is saddled with Thiel’s two slow horse candidates, while Capt. PayPal’s moneybag has taken a big flyer and is no where to be seen. My guess is Mitch pulled his dough out of AZ to help in other places, and made those two states Thiel’s problem now. “You bought it, you can own it” as the saying goes.
Meanwhile, from the Mailbag…
Andrew Kiesow: Has the defining of a recession become politicized? Will more D’s use the word post-midterms?
GIBBS: Hmmmm, interesting question. Of course, the traditional economic definition of two consecutive negative quarters of economic growth generally carries the day here. This may sound easy since my name (thankfully!) isn’t on any ballot this Fall, but I think candidates have to call it like it is, especially when it comes to economic pain. Voters can smell bad spin on economic issues a mile away and the result is usually voters tuning out that kind of talk and labeling that candidate “out of touch,” which can be politically fatal. Better to be honest and simply call it what it is, whether it’s bad inflation or possibly next a recession.
Andrew, thanks for the question! Keep those questions coming and we will try to get through more of them as we head to November 8th.
MURPHY: Yup!
See you next week!
Murphy and Gibbs