What Will It Take for Biden and the World to Stop Putin?
Hello Hackaroos!
Well, the images out of Ukraine continue to get worse and worse, which just continue to force the world and President Biden to figure out what to do next and how far to go to stop Putin. We start with the politics of that, then turn to some tidbits on the latest in the Supreme Court nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson and the return of the one and only Sarah Palin. With primary season upon us, we’ll be focusing on a different state every week (with probably some extra love for Georgil-vania), so stay tuned!
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Let’s begin…
THE POLITICS OF ESCALATION IN UKRAINE
MURPHY: I think we've all been dreading finding out just how horrible the Russians have been in the Ukrainian towns they took control of and now we know as the pictures and stories are coming in. They are horrific. Some military analysts call it the Russian way of war. For me, it looks like the inhumane way of war and world outrage has soared to a new pinnacle. And that means new pressure on President Biden and NATO leaders to turn up the heat on Russia and its gruesome leader Vladimir Putin. Politically, this is raising the stakes for Joe Biden. The administration has been very sensitive about any criticism they are “escalating” the situation but now firm and thoughtful escalation is exactly what is needed. Biden needs a strategy to do that and expect to see even firmer sanctions – we are already at a 9.25 on the sanctions scale – and even more serious military hardware flowing into Ukraine. None of this will be easy; Europe remains a winter prisoner to Russian natural gas and there are limits to what military hardware the Ukrainians can quickly put to work. The heavy Western stuff needs lots of lengthy training. Still, expect to see former Russian weapons the Ukrainians are trained on like T-72 tanks and S-300 anti-aircraft missiles heading to Ukraine soon; something that was unlikely just a few days ago. Will it be enough? Will the idea of using NATO airpower to enforce a no-fly zone return? It’s a new game now and we’ll see. The bottom line is pressure is growing on President Biden to push even harder on the Russian dictator.
GIBBS: Wholeheartedly agree, Murphy. It seems like Ukraine is at a fairly large inflection point. The gruesome and painful pictures of the weekend underscore that the West, I believe, has very little choice, but to escalate in a way that defeats Putin. I don't see how given mass graves, genocide, and saying Putin should be tried for war crimes, how you can play this out to a stalemate and end up at a negotiating table with a butcher. By the way, what Biden said in Poland about removing Putin was exactly what he meant to say and it’s sort of hard to argue it any other direction. The Biden administration hinted late last week that tank transfers were going to happen. My hunch is that the Pentagon will find a lot more hardware to ship Ukraine's way. This will galvanize the West to do even more. They simply have to at this point. This isn't something to negotiate. It's something to win now. And I think there's going to be an incredible amount of pressure for everyone to do more. Will it cause the Europeans to finally give up Russian gas? Hearts and minds are slowly changing on that front. I am a big believer that in a case such as this, the best policy is also the best politics. I recently heard former Governor Chris Christie, quoting the late John McCain with a great line that said, “Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country.” Come to think of it, Murphy, sounds like something you’d write! I think it is a perfect encapsulation of the only thing left that Putin has. If and when that energy exports from Russia are cut off, real progress will be made. And, as we always talk about, let’s not forget that the Chinese are watching what’s happening in Russia as closely if not more so than anybody else in the world.
MURPHY: Absolutely, the atrocities have also changed the game for the Chinese. It’ll be harder for them to skate on the pals with Russia issue now. They don’t want to be isolated and the West can crank up the economic pressure on them as well if they try to throw Putin an economic lifeline. Beyond jawboning and more sanctions there are other things Biden could do that would have a real impact on Putin. The President could launch a crash program to build LNG export terminals in the USA so American natural gas can prop up Europe during the winter and defang Russia's vaunted energy blackmail weapon. As outrage grew this week it was interesting to hear the German defense minister is actually talking about cutting off Russian gas inputs, which would be a huge blow to Putin, but it's very tough for Germany and others to do unless you have replacement supplies and the infrastructure to bring that gas into Europe. It’ll take a real crash program to get anything done. Another problem for Biden, his lefty enviros will be dubious about a massive U.S. effort to ramp up natural gas production. Still, if Biden can defang Putin’s energy leverage, it'll be an economic death blow to Putin.
TIDBITS
GIBBS: So, this is an inelegant segue to the domestic campaign politics just as we wrote that Biden shouldn't be focused on it. Luckily, we’re Hacks so we’re not only allowed to but, frankly encouraged to write about this stuff! As you can see from this nifty calendar, we've got really important primaries on the horizon to determine nominees on the Republican and Democratic sides in key states. Over the next seven weeks, we’ll see VERY spirited races in Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Alabama and runoffs in Texas. We’ll look at the bigger races in each state as each party selects nominees for the important November ballot. We’ll also chart how Trump is doing in endorsing candidates and what those outcomes say about his own political strength. We’ll do a different race each newsletter for the next few issues. But, Murphy, let’s start with a blast from the past… Sarah Palin for Congress?!
MURPHY: Well clearly with the Ukraine crisis ramping up and being able to see Russia from her porch, she felt the call of leadership! This caper – running for Alaska’s one at-large Congressional seat will be a tricky lift for her. First, she’s running in a special election to replace legendary Congressman Don Young, a fearsome appropriator who spent decades bringing freight cars of federal money back home. Famous for brandishing his trusty Bowie knife, Young was also the scariest thing to come out of Alaska since Jay York. Young’s stature in the state raises the stakes a big for Palin. As the only Congressional Member from the state, he was sort of Alaska’s third Senator. High stakes are not great for Palin; especially since her popularity numbers took a dive after she bailed out as Governor.
There is also Alaska’s new voting system; everybody runs in the primary on one ballot and the top four, not top two, go on to the final election. Plus… it’s ranked choice voting! Simple, eh Gibbs?
GIBBS: Not only that Murphy, there are over 50 candidates running! Putting it mildly, this is a unique election and a new process in Alaska, which you can read up on here. I don’t believe there would have been a Donald Trump without Sarah Palin. Also, no coincidence that Trump has jumped into this race by endorsing the former governor (though he’s never one to actually pay it forward). Nevertheless, it has instantly become a test of his sway as well. One thing to remember, as this story in Politico mentions, the challenge that Palin will have is in the latest poll that was done about a year ago, her favorability rating was only 31 percent, as people still remember her quitting office in 2009. She’s not the only name in the race but she’s by far the biggest, So, lots of intrigue in Alaska.
MURPHY: I’d bet against her this time, but as we’ve seen so often, these are crazy times so a crazy candidate always has a chance to prevail!
GIBBS: Lastly, the Senate moved forward on the Supreme Court nomination of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson yesterday. While the Judiciary Committee deadlocked on moving her forward, a floor vote started the process that will end this week with her approval. Two more Republicans also yesterday came out in favor of Judge Jackson. Mitt Romney of Utah and Alaska Lisa Murkowski said they’d vote yes. While some, including me, wondered whether Murkowski, given her primary, would vote for this nominee, this new election process we talked about above may have given her more reason to vote yes, as the system favors candidates who can draw from all parties. Look for final confirmation on Thursday or, at the latest, Friday. A big accomplishment for this President, the White House and Democrats.
Much more to come! We’ll be back on Friday.
Murphy and Gibbs