What To Make of the Midterm Message With 49 Days to Go
Hello Hackaroos!
Well, as we march closer to Election Day, the polling debate over which party has the upper hand with their message continues. We give our latest take on that, plus map out developments in a few big Senate races and share our thoughts on President Biden’s 60 Minutes interview.
Let’s begin…
What’s The Right Midterm Message?
GIBBS: While I know we've cautioned readers about polling lately, we did want to highlight the latest NBC News poll because it’s done by people we know and trust.
MURPHY: In other words, real campaign hack pollsters!
Source: NBC News
GIBBS: Ha! Yes, indeed! The poll shows President Biden’s approval rating up +3 to 45% (the highest rating in this poll since October 2021) and a generic Congressional ballot all tied at 46-46. But, it also has some results that should scare both sides of the aisle with just 7 weeks to go. And while threats to democracy (the top single issue) and abortion are important in the issue landscape, inflation and the economy seem to have the upper hand. When you look through the toplines, if I am a Democrat, what alarms me is question 16 which is a forced choice question that asks respondents to say which issue matters most in deciding their vote for Congress between the cost of living and abortion. A candidate’s views on the cost of living wins that 59% to 37%. Fret not, there’s evidence later in the questionnaire that provides more nuance than the above question. Question 24 is a hypothetical race between Candidate Smith and Candidate Jones (the pollsters here clearly picking the most generic last names so as not to inject any nomenclature bias!) Candidate Jones says “we need to keep getting things done for working Americans by lowering costs, including health care and prescription drugs, and ensuring corporations pay their fair share. We need to stand up for our democracy and freedoms, rejecting dangerous election lies, opposing attempts to ban abortion, and making sure we have the right to make our own health care decisions.” On the other hand, Candidate Smith is campaigning by saying “record high gas and grocery prices are hurting middle-class and working Americans. There has been a surge in violent crime and millions of migrants have come across the border illegally. Our kids’ tests scores are the lowest they have been in fifty (50) years because of COVID lockdown policies. We need a change.” In this race, Candidate Jones leads this race 46% to 32%. Neither questions are perfect in laying out the exact scenario we find ourselves in at the moment, but both show important distinctions about the contours of many of the races going forward. As you’ve said before Murphy, maybe we shouldn't even be paying attention to anything in terms of polling for another couple of weeks. But the one thing that I think Democrats have at least accomplished thus far, and this poll shows it well, is they’ve so far bucked history and made this race winnable. It’s clear if this was purely a referendum election, it would be very, very ugly with deep losses for Democrats. But because of Donald Trump (who’s favorable rating in the NBC poll is down to 34%) and the Supreme Court, which sort of sounds like a Fifties band, the Democrats have at least made this into a referendum. So it’s really about what are we going to be talking about for the next seven weeks? Is it going to be is it going to be inflation, immigration and crime or is it going to be Trump, abortion and democracy? And that decides where this thing nets out.
Source: NBC News
MURPHY: Like nearly all campaigns, the closing weeks are like ball position in sports; each side wants to control the daily debate and talk about the issues they think will frame the election choice on areas most favorable to them. The Democrats want the election to be about Roe, crazy Republican extremists and the meat and potatoes accomplishments of the Biden administration. The Republicans want the election debate to be over inflation, economic pain, surging crime and the crisis at the border. Both sides, in the end, want to define the last thoughts voters have when they cast their final ballot. What makes that struggle especially interesting this year is the question of will issues like Roe and GOP/Trump wackiness overpower historically powerful issues like inflation and gas and food prices. Most history would tell you to bet on the Republican issue set in a midterm like this. (That’s my bet too.). But maybe the push back from the hot Democratic issues can combine with a truck load of weak cheese GOP candidates to tip the Senate. While DC conventional wisdom has been tilting toward the Democrats in recent weeks – fueled mostly by more optimistic polling – I think it’s time to turn up our DC Dems Pearl Clutching Index because there is some new emerging evidence of a GOP comeback. Now first, let me caution about polls. I’m more interested in the inflation rate in October than I am in August/early September polling; especially when it comes to the massively over-rated “generic ballot” question that the media so loves when they are playing Kreskin and trying to predict the November outcome. (Speaking of polling, I had great fun last Friday doing a deep dive on the mis-underestimating so common with media polling on our friend Dan Senor’s great podcast “Call me back!” You can check it out here.)
Again, these races are tight, but my feeling is the reported death of the GOP midterm wave has – as I’ve said on Hacks and in this newsletter – been premature. The new NBC poll has a big tell: voters give President Biden a 58% disapproval on his handling of the economy and a whopping 65% disapproval on handling “the cost of living.” Those are iceberg numbers Gibbsie. Our friend Josh Kraushaar of Axios addresses this in a new column that may not get him on Chuck Schumer’s most beloved analysts list.
GIBBS: Josh, like us, believes we are down to a small handful of races that will decide control of the Senate. My take on that list: where is Wisconsin? I think everyone's writing the state off way too early. Plus, I’m more partial to our Final Four, as it accounts for the very real scenario that we find ourselves back at 50-50.
MURPHY: My obsession is in Nevada, where Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto has been seen as vulnerable for two years, due to flimsy polling approval numbers. While the state is a bit underserved in public polling, GOP challenger Adam Laxalt (grandson of venerable GOP institution Senator Paul Laxalt) has a tiny lead in polling. I’ve written here that Nevada’s California level pro-choice views on abortion might give Cortez Masto a handy tool to reinvigorate her stalled effort. And she has been busy pounding the pro-life Laxalt. But the GOP challenger has been adroit, pointing out that abortion rights are enshrined in Nevada’s state constitution so the SCOTUS’ decision will have no impact there. He’s also counter-attacking Cortez Masto as too extreme on abortion, given her past votes to legalize late term abortions (a position as unpopular with most voters as the equally extreme pro-life “no exceptions" stance). Laxalt lays out his counter attack in a somewhat overly defensive op-ed here.
While I’m sure that Team Laxalt would rather be debating inflation and economic issues, his counterattack and “nothing will change” strategy will provide a good test of the actually potency of the Roe issue on election day. We’ll keep a close eye on the Nevada race going forward; along with Pennsylvania and Georgia (and perhaps Wisconsin and Arizona), which could hold the key to control of the Senate.
TIDBITS:
GIBBS: Murphy, I know neither of us are necessarily in the 60 minutes demo quite yet, but I did catch President Biden’s interview on Sunday. First, he answered the question around the U.S. policy known as strategic ambiguity in Taiwan for maybe the fourth time by saying our soldiers would defend the island against invasion. And, for the fourth time, the staff walked it back to say, despite the President’s changing the policy in the interview (again), that nothing had changed and left it up to the listener to decide if we’d send troops or not. I suppose finally we have some genuine ambiguity around the strategic in the policy of strategic ambiguity. You can bet they’re re-watching that part a lot in Beijing.
MURPHY: SPEAK INTO MY HORN, SONNY! Sorry… I kid, the 60 Minutes people. No doubt the POTUS did pivot from strategic ambiguity about the PRC and Taiwan to plenty of it about his own re-election, here:
GIBBS: In reality, I don't think his answer here is actually that far from what he’s said in the past, but 60 Minutes promoted it otherwise, saying it was controversial. Earlier, he said his intention has always been to run, but he’d need to decide that we could do it for four more years. To me it was very much matter of fact and, frankly, I believe honestly where Biden truly is on this, but it’s going to get hashed and rehashed probably unnecessarily. Just like every other President, they want to run for reelection. But, each of those Presidents has to look at the totality of the situation and decide to run. It’s also worth noting, if he said he was running right now, he’s need to file paperwork with the FEC and start paying for certain things, including political travel, out of a campaign account. Biden understands his situation and there’s no need to decide and announce it now. Yes, the staff is planning for him to run and getting ready, but that’s exactly what they should be doing at this stage.
MURPHY: The whole “are you running again” question is sort of joke, since it is a sort of Heisenberg uncertainty principle question, since the very asking of the question distorts the results and prevent a true answer. Say yes, and you box yourself in way early. Say no, and your Presidency instantly becomes a lame duck. It is a question that is – this early – unanswerable. And I thought Biden did a solid job of… not answering it.
And on that note, we’ll unambiguously see you on Friday!
Murphy and Gibbs