What Happens In Georgil-Vania Will Decide it All
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, don’t say we didn’t warn you! It looks like the Senate is going to come down to Georgil-Vania. For our newer readers, that’s our super clever combination of Georgia and Pennsylvania, which we came up with months ago because we thought these were the two most interesting political states in the 2022 midterms. The bigger developments are happening in Georgia where more personal revelations continue to dog the campaign of GOP challenger Herschel Walker. We start there then give our take on the race for the House and the early answers to our question on October Surprises plus some tidbits.
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Let’s begin!
More Bad News for Herschel in Georgia
GIBBS: I guess, Murphy, we can both say in this issue, we were right! Many months ago when we started to focus on the Midterms, we told readers the two most interesting states were going to be Georgia and Pennsylvania. It turns out, the Senate is almost certainly going to come down to those two. Today, I want to focus on Georgia because, well, that’s where all the smoke is right now. Monday the Herschel Walker campaign was rocked by a story in The Daily Beast claiming he’d encouraged and paid for a pregnant girlfriend to get an abortion in 2009. The proof offered was literally a receipt from the abortion clinic, a check and a get well card. That led to Herschel’s son Christian hopping on his popular TikTok account and proclaiming his Dad to be a liar, who’d endangered the family. Walker denied it ever happened (even going so far as saying he had no idea who this person could even be), proclaimed love for his son and said he’d sue for defamation. On Wednesday, that person he didn’t know gave an interview to The Daily Beast and said she was in fact the mother of one of Herschel’s children (that was a whole other controversy earlier in the campaign). Once again, Herschel’s son took to social media. Many GOP leaders have stuck with Walker while some in the state are keeping their distance. Oh, and that defamation suit has yet to be filed as someone likely reminded the famous football star of the peril of answering questions and offering denials under oath. So how has this all impacted the race? A Fox 5/Insider Advantage poll showed Walker’s opponent incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock now leading Walker 47% to 44% after trailing in a poll conducted by the same group a month ago by the same numbers. Is it a trend based on Walker’s falling support because of the revelations? Likely too soon to tell from this poll as we should point out both leads are within each’s poll’s margin of error. My gut tells me it ain’t good for Walker. Another poll conducted by WXIA/Survey USA had Walker trailing by an astounding 12 points, losing to Warnock 50% to 38%. I’m taking that one with a grain of salt until I see more.
This story isn’t going away anytime soon and if it even starts to his son can easily hop on the internet and gin it up again. And I doubt we’ve heard the last from the woman from these stories. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s an appearance by her before the lone Warnock-Walker debate scheduled for one week from today in Savannah. You can bet the world will be watching that one. Murphy, can Herschel survive this? A loss by the GOP here would make it hard to win control of the Senate as they’d need to hold Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and pick up Nevada, which is the state that now looks hardest for Dems to hold. It’s all coming down to Georgia and Pennsylvania isn’t it?
MURPHY: All true (thought I’d add Nevada to the races that will decide the Senate list; it’s been woefully under covered by the national media but it’s every bit as important to the outcome as PA and GA). Gotta say I feel bad for Herschel’s long suffering campaign staff. They probably have tighter nerves that the Baghdad police’s Bomb Disposal team.
@hacksontapnewsletter: Herschel’s campaign staff probably has tighter nerves than the Baghdad police’s Bomb Disposal team.
The next stop of the Walker for Senate Staff Heart Attack tour will be the big TV debate next Friday the 14th. (Grab the popcorn and tune in.) Now if I was Walker’s campaign manager I’d make sure to have a stooge in the back of the studio ready to throw Herschel a tight spiral from time to time to divert attention for his answers. I’m only half kidding here. Open Mic Night with Herschel Walker on statewide TV is going to be something to behold. And here’s the really tragically funny part: Herschel can still win. It’s a wave election. And despite all the Democratic Emotional Therapy polls over the summer, the election appears to be reverting to historical normal here in the last 30 days. Wave elections are not about the challengers, they are about punishing the incumbent President. True enough that lousy GOP candidates – thank you Donald Trump – are crippling what should be an easy Republican romp to a Senate majority. But it can still happen and I think the odds are 51% it will. It’s a similar story in PA where Doc Oz is closing in after blasting Fetterman for his hard lefty history on the state parole board. In Wisconsin, endangered Republican Senator Ron Johnson won the lottery when state Democrats nominated a weak general election candidate (over a far more competitive Democrat who was basically hounded out of the race). In NV, I think Laxalt is going to beat Democratic incumbent Cortez-Masto. While the media noise is all about chucklehead Republican candidates struggling in Senate primaries (true) it is also true that the Democratic nomination process has coughed up vulnerable lefties in WI and PA. With so many lose bolts on both parties’ big airplanes, the next few weeks will be quite a ride.
@hacksontapnewsletter: The GOP doubles down on Herschel, and Joe "works blue" with the mayor of Ft. Myers Beach, FL
The Horserace in the House
GIBBS: While we’ve spent a lot of time on the Senate, I thought we’d spend a few minutes on the other part of the Hill – the House. Our friend Dave Wasserman changed his ratings yesterday to 211 seats at least Lean R, 194 seats at least Lean D, with 30 Toss Ups. In other words, Dems would still need to win 24/30 Toss Ups (80%) to keep their majority. He did move 7 races towards Democrats this week and 3 towards Republicans and it’s fair to remind our readers that either Dems or GOPers can switch a seat in the Lean D or R column too. I still think the advantage here lies very much with Republicans since the climb isn’t that steep in terms of the number of seats they need to gain and there’s plenty of places to win 6 seats. Thoughts, oh wise one?
Source: Cook Political Report
MURPHY: The Democratic House comeback narrative is balderdash. They will lose their majority. The Big Question is scope. Will the R’s win by single or double digits. Inside the hooting GOP House conference, expectations are high. Too High. If it is a motley single digit win, accusing fingers – including a plump orangish one from Florida – will point at Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy and potentially add turbulence to his election as Speaker. Double digits and he’ll be fine. But the bottom line is the GOP is near certain to win the House.
October Surprise Round 1: OPEC vs Marijuana!
GIBBS: We alluded to October surprises in our five questions earlier this week. Well, it turns out, we have two early entries: a cut in oil production by OPEC and President Biden’s pardon for marijuana possession. In many ways, these two also track a campaign focused on economic issues, such as the cost of gas, and more social issues like the legalization of drugs. The OPEC decision shows that the President’s trip a few months ago to Saudi Arabia was worthless (and the fist bump picture with Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman was an embarrassing that simply helped rehabilitate a butcher). It also shows the Saudis pitching in to help the Russians and Vladimir Putin at a time when the Russian leader is suffering daily defeats on the Ukrainian battlefield. The domestic political impact could be an increase in gas prices of 30 cents a gallon between now and Election Day, also a bad thing for Biden. The other surprise, the marijuana possession pardons are likely a political winner for Biden. The surprise news also represents quite a journey for a Senator known for authoring legislation in the early 1990s strengthening penalties for drug crimes before advocating legalization of marijuana in the 2020 campaign. A Morning Consult/Politico poll from Wednesday showed 60% of Americans supported legalizing marijuana, including 71% of Democrats, 70% of those age 18-44, 72% of Blacks and 67% of Hispanics. Buckle up, we still have more than 4 weeks of these twists and turns.
MURPHY: Biden is clearly playing the Mary Jane card here to bring enthusiasm to younger voters who are famous for 1.) leaning more Democratic and 2.) not voting in off-year elections. So Operation Cheech and Chong here is all about midterm politics. Maybe it’ll help – though one group known for their rigid “up at dawn, it’s time to vote” ethos is, of course, pot fanatics. So I think this is a cute and popular maneuver, but I doubt it will make any material dent in the Democrat’s midterm dilemma. Now put that brownie down Gibbs, it’s your third, and start writing! While you do that, a word on OPEC. Lots of Democratic speculation out there right now that the OPEC move is a three-dimensional chess master plot to tip the election. I doubt it. First, the election is already tipped. Second the price at the pump damage to Biden is already done. Third, OPEC members are notorious for cheating on production figures, so the hit to actual production numbers will be less than initially assumed.
TIDBITS
GIBBS: Interesting snapshot from Biden’s trip to visit the storm damage in Florida with potential GOP opponent and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Thankful for the bipartisanship as Florida recovers from the devastating impact of Hurricane Ian, but it’s also worth pointing out that it also captures the concern some in the GOP political class have about the trolling Florida pol. Does DeSantis have the personality and a personable enough style with voters to be President? DeSantis rarely looks all that jovial or happy. His tone tends not to be warm and the question some have is whether that will wear well out on the stump in 2023 and 2024 should he run. Not too long ago, reporters asked voters whether they’d rather have a beer with Al Gore or George W. Bush as a way of drawing a personality contrast between the candidates. I tend to think the decision a voter makes in the Presidential race is a little deeper than who you want to down a cold one with but it is true that we like upbeat, optimistic candidates who smile to scolding unhappy ones. It’s also why a candidate like Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is seen by some as worthy rival to DeSantis, despite the fact that very few knew his name, a year and a half ago.
MURPHY: First of all Gibbsie, you’ve already made it clear on the pod and here in the newsletter for a year that Trump is a lock on the 2024 nomination so why are we wasting ink on DeSantis! I think he’d be a stronger general election candidate than Trump by a mile – with who the D’s nominate being a huge factor in the outcome – but I agree his GOP primary culture war stuff will be a mixed bag as best in any competitive general election contest. But Gov. DeSantis is a shrewd cynic and once the primary is over, my guess is he’ll be able to pivot with the best of them. Meanwhile somebody tell the good Governor that Nancy Sinatra wants her go-go boots back!
In other Florida news, it looks like Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse may be leaving the World’s Greatest Deliberative Body to become the new President of the University of Florida.
Sad news for the GOP. Sasse has been a principled Senator, good conservative, and a rare intellectual spark in the Republican Caucus. He’s even been a (part time) anti-Trumper. It’s a significant loss for the thoughtful conservative wing of the GOP, but a big gain for Florida.
See you next week!
Murphy and Gibbs