What do the Abortion Wars Mean for 2022?
Hi Hackaroos!
Well as if the Supreme Court could get even more political, this week’s arguments over the Mississippi abortion law definitely puts the Justices on the ballot next year. That’s where we begin before turning to some tidbits on the major developments this week in Pennsylvania and Georgia heading into 2022. And thankfully, the only sentence you have to read here about the government shutdown that was averted is this one.
(cover photo cred: Leigh Vogel / Getty Images Entertainment)
Let’s begin!
It’s Not A Matter of If, But When in The Abortion Battleground
Murphy:
Well Gibbsie, one monster Roe v. Wade is upon us! We know our readers are fanatics for constitutional law so a quick recap; the Mississippi law under SCOTUS examination would move the all-important “viability” standard up to 15 weeks from the current ~24 weeks, which only affects approximately 5% of the abortions performed in Mississippi. But it is a definite rollback to federalized abortion rights as established under Roe v. Wade. Most conservatives have always considered Roe bad constitutional law; they think the decision should be left up to the states. So now, with a conservative majority court, we are at that moment. But Roe has become the political norm so if the Court does decide to either overturn it entirely or roll it back in some sort of limited roll back compromise (Chief Justice Roberts is trying) all political Hell is gonna break loose with winners and losers on both sides. What's your take, Robert?
Gibbs:
I think if one listens to the oral arguments, or if you read the news coverage, it isn't a matter of whether the Court is going to do away with Roe v. Wade, it’s the degree to which they're going to do away with Roe v. Wade. That much seems certain. We know that the constitutional protections under Roe v. Wade are going to be drastically different sometime in the middle of next year, and as it happens, right before an important 2022 midterm election. And oh, by the way, Murphy, without any inside information on this, I bet not long after this decision comes down, there will also be a Supreme Court retirement that is going to capture Washington's attention for several months leading up to the campaign. I think Wednesday’s Court argument is likely to recast the 2022 campaign in a pretty big way given what I think we know the Court is going to decide. As you said, Chief Justice Roberts is trying to maybe pull this thing back and focus simply on the time of viability, but it’s hard to put the genie back in the bottle at this point. Speaking of genies not going back in the bottle, I think the Supreme Court is about to accelerate the path that it has been on more slowly for the past couple of decades and become just as political, and therefore deeply polarizing, an institution as Congress and the White House. And once that happens, it’s hard to envision it changing back. You're taking a 50-year precedent and, without any new information suggesting the original ruling was somehow flawed, overturning it. That is, no pun intended, unprecedented. And I think it's going to be cause for an enormous set of passionate reactions in 2022.
Murphy:
Supreme Court retirement! That’ll throw even more gasoline on this fire. I would respond RG, that the Court has always been political and Roe v. Wade was very clunky constitutional law. The Court back then really twisted itself to find a way to land a contentious issue in a way that most Americans were happy with. Now that old apple cart is likely to get overturned. As far as the political impact of this is concerned, we're both going to have to put on our Vulcan Spock ears and break out the ol’ three-dimensional chess set because the politics of this works in a lot of different places and a lot of different levels.
There's both opportunity for Democrats in the midterms and a few traps. The opportunity is the Democrat activist world is overwhelmingly pro-choice. This means more energy, more turnout in some places and a lot more big fat cat checks and small online contributions gushing in to Democratic coffers. All helpful to Dems during what is likely be very rocky midterms. But maybe a bit less rocky now, particularly in the critical suburbs. We will see. Democrats did well in 2018 and against Trump in 2020 by getting the suburbs back. Republicans showed a way to flip them back in the Virginia election earlier this year. SO that’s the jump ball and Roe overturned could be a potent Democratic issue. In the more rural areas and much of the sunbelt and Midwest, it’s less of a winner – and in some places – a loser for the Dems, who need to grow their support in those regions. The bottom line for me, is that a big abortion rights brawl may help the Dems most is the crucial midterm Senate races like Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. Again, it’s because of the suburbs. The other big question is obvious: will a Roe battle be a big enough issue outside the Democratic base and primary electorate to push away the other huge voter issues that are driving the Democrats’ polling troubles right now; namely inflation and a general feeling that President Biden is not in control of things? That looked pretty grim for the D’s a week ago, but if Roe is overturned they certainly have an issue to go on offense with in those key suburbs.
Gibbs:
My big disagreement with you here Murphy isn't that I think it will matter more in statewide races than in congressional races, but the reason why the precedent has lasted as long as it did and why people were happy with it in the 1970s and the 1990s and even the 2020s was because it was something that spoke not to one party's political majority, but to a greater majority of Americans. As you know, there are many pro-choice Republicans. This isn't a 50-50 issue. It hasn't been a 50-50 issue for a really long time. Look at the AP’s exit poll of the 2020 Presidential election and you find that 69% of voters said the Supreme Court should leave the Roe v. Wade decision as is and just 29% said it should be overturned. While the Supreme Court has always been political, it has taken pains recently to get out of the way of sticking itself into politics. Look only at what Justice Roberts did on the original Obamacare decision in getting out of the way of something Congress had passed and not asserting the Judiciary into invalidating. Well, this Court is barreling down the highway at full speed to potentially change something that essentially 70% of the country doesn’t want to see changed. This could play out quickly in a lot of states that have laws that would immediately trigger abortion restrictions if the Supreme Court acts. So, I think the challenge that Republicans are going to have is they're running headlong into an issue that isn't 50-50 and I think that's going to present some genuine problems for them. It’s a dangerous move for how the Court is going to be perceived going forward. It's one thing to get involved in and make decisions about political issues, it is another thing to use a Supreme Court majority to overturn something that enjoys a strong majority of Americans thinking that Roe v. Wade can and should be constitutionally protected for every woman in America, regardless of the state she resides in.
Murphy:
I get that. But I think the Court’s job is to focus on the law and Constitution first, not a popularity contest re: the midterms, whether you are with Roe or not.
TIDBITS:
Murphy:
Let’s call 2022, the year of Georgia-lyvania as Georgia joins Pennsylvania as the most important 2022 political real estate to keep an eye on. I’ll start with Pennsylvania because as readers know, I’m obsessed with it. TV flack Dr. Oz has packed up his leaches and left his mansion in Jersey to scuttle over the border into Pennsylvania and announce he’s running for Senate in the Keystone State as a Trump fanboy. Meanwhile, highly respected investment banker and experienced public servant David McCormick is expected to jump into the GOP Senate primary as well. McCormick is the quality candidate, so he might be doomed in the Republican primary, but maybe not. He’ll have support and resources and if he can win a R primary without permanently attaching big Trump red clown shoes to his feet, he’d be a strong candidate in the general election.
Meanwhile, Georgia is erupting with campaign news as Democratic rising star Stacey Abrams announced she's going to run for governor against Brian Kemp, the incumbent Republican conservative with a Trumpy vibe… although Donald Trump now deeply hates him for refusing to get on the whole crooked/crazy “the election was stolen” bandwagon. Trump's trying to recruit a primary opponent to Kemp so this is going to be quite a mixmaster of intrigue and conflict. Interestingly, in the Trump polling by Tony Fabrizio that was leaked a few weeks ago – showing Trump doing well at this very early stage in a few key battleground 2024 states – Georgia was the one state showing the most trouble for Trump. Clearly, there is increasing Democratic energy there, as Georgia’s electorate looks less and less classically southern and more diverse and suburban, so this this contest will go national and should become a real battle, not to mention the Georgia Senate race where last year's winner Raphael Warnock is running for a full term and is likely to face Republican Herschel Walker.
Gibbs:
Completely agree, Murphy. Pennsylvania and Georgia are shaping up to be the two most interesting states in the 2022 elections. And this doesn't even really get into the intrigue around the House races, but, as you said, there's wide open primaries on each side in Pennsylvania that follow some of the party contours between more moderate and more liberal candidates on each side which has dominated a lot of our political discourse and events lately. And Georgia is just fascinating on a thousand different levels. To me it was the most intriguing state in the presidential race because while it had long been on this journey, it finally achieved its political New South status that it had achieved culturally many years before. Add in all the Trump intrigue on the GOP side and just wow. If I was a media outlet trying to create a name with great political coverage, I would hire two really good reporters to cover each race exclusively on a day-to-day basis. Lucky for us, there are some really good political reporters there already to help us understand it all! Also, maybe the race that will get the most ink of any race in 2022 is the Governor’s race in Georgia. Bigger than Florida, bigger than Texas. I am excited just thinking about it!
Murphy:
Maybe you and I ought to hit the road and do a little “Hacks on Tap” newsletter shoe leather reporting in the Waffle Houses of Dahlonega and the Greasy Spoons of Bethlehem! And don't think if Georgia winds up with Governor-elect Abrams, the Democratic presidential race won’t suddenly get even more interesting for Kamala Harris… and not in a good way for the VP.
Well, now that the government shutdown has been averted for now, we’re going to have to come up with something else to talk about on Tuesday… at least there's always Georgia-lyvania. Have a great weekend!
Murphy and Gibbs