What Do Russia’s Latest War Games Mean for Biden? + Trump’s Prescription for Pennsylvania
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, the war in Ukraine continues with Russia changing strategy and generals. What does that mean for President Biden’s political strategy going forward and how might the French presidential election impact that strategy? That’s where we begin, before some midterm tidbits, including President Trump’s big endorsement in Pennsylvania.
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Let’s begin…
The Difficult Road Ahead For The Politics and the People of Ukraine
GIBBS: Over the course of the next month, the political pressure around Ukraine is likely to escalate for Joe Biden as will the fighting. As we know now, Russia retreating from Kyiv simply meant they were regrouping for a major offensive in the East, which will start any day now. Putin has appointed a new general whose reputation from Syria is one of indiscriminate killing of civilians and a large supply convoy is heading into the East. That all means that the next month or so will result in more fighting and a situation even more difficult than what we've already seen. It’s going to ramp up pressure on the Biden administration to continue to provide not just more weapons, but also expand the types of weapons. And it likely will take even more of the President’s own time and effort to keep the coalition hanging together strong in the face of Putin’s brutality.
MURPHY: It seems to me like attitudes are shifting toward a stronger policy toward Russia now; even more sanctions, more powerful arms being to shipped to Ukraine and more pressure on China to stop holding Putin’s briefcase. All good in my view; nothing like horrific war crimes to persuade the West that this crisis is about more than thoughtful negotiations with the Russian dictator. He only understands power. Nothing will succeed against him like more military defeats. While the new Russian eastern offensive will put Putin’s beleaguered army on terrain it is better able to fight, a good outcome for the Russians is not certain. If Biden can lead the ramp up parade – even by establishing fast ship NATO depots in Poland and sending in more heavy hardware – including modern US stuff – Putin can be thwarted and a thwarted failing Putin is very good domestic politics for Joe Biden.
Parlez-vous Francais? The French Fallout From The Presidential Election
GIBBS: Then there are the results out of France. This is an extraordinarily big election for France, for the US and for the world. It could have a large impact on how Ukraine is handled going forward. Obviously, a Marine Le Pen victory would mean a Putin sympathizer leads one of the most important European countries and some part of the glue that helps hold all of this European Union-US coalition together. So, we’re all in for a tense couple of weeks in watching what happens. Emmanuel Macron comes out of the first round ahead, but the polling going into Sunday's first round of elections in a runoff showed he has a fairly narrow margin of five to seven points. So white knuckled time throughout Washington and Paris and Brussels and beyond. As an astute observer of La France, what say you, mon ami Murphy?
MURPHY: I’m indeed a fan of French politics. I was on the ground there for Sarkozy’s first election and had a ball. (Wait for my memoirs for more on that.) Let me just say French politics are, well, very French. Still, there are universal laws of gravity to campaigns and France is no different. The first election this week was indeed very scary for President Macron. But there can be a Kabuki-esque ritual to French political campaigns. And although the American CW is (shocker) projecting US conclusions on the French results, I think the situation is a bit better for Macron. The CW says that the combined Au Revoir vote for the French President is a looming majority and he might actually lose the runoff to his nemesis Marie Le Pen (of the rightest National Front party; sort of a family business started decades ago by her father.)
I’ll explain why I think it’s a bit more complicated. And, since my long-term Francophile proclivities are well known, I’m going to write his quick take in the timeless voice of cinema’s Popeye Doyle from the great picture The French Connection.
“So the Boss Frog is in trouble, see. Almost lost his election. Now there’s a run-off in two weeks. But don’t count him out. These Frenchies, they like to slap their guy around a bit, see. Remind ‘em who’s boss. So now, it’s all about how the Boss Frog handles his beating. He shows he’s sorry, he learned something, he’s even grateful for the whole thing… then he gets the big comeback. I mean they don’t really like the nutjob lady running against him. Vote against her every time. But the Boss Frog, he’s a pretty one, see? A bit slick, like Frogs can be. This one? He’s got a pretty kisser Joe Frenchie wants to punch. He’s gotta show he’s not too swell to take a beating and learn his lesson. He does that, he’s gonna be aces. They don’t want Frog 2, the crazy broad. Never did. It’s about him.”
I think Popeye is probably right, but Macron… not the humblest guy around, could still blow this. It isn’t easy to be the Boss Frog.
TIDBITS
GIBBS: Probably the biggest political news of the weekend was President Trump's endorsement of Dr. Oz to be Dr. Senator Oz, much to the chagrin and consternation of different aspects of the Republican elite in Pennsylvania. Sean Parnell, the person who got the first Trump endorsement before losing custody in a divorce case and dropping out of the race, was highly critical of the endorsement and former Republican Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum said he would endorse David McCormick. But, it’s a fairly stunning endorsement even with Dr. Oz's long relationship with Trump, given how much time and energy McCormick’s team had put into getting this endorsement, including hiring former Trump senior staff and quite frankly, shifting maybe a career’s worth of rhetoric from mainstream Republican to MAGA Republican. This will be interesting to watch for a couple of reasons. One: for candidates desperate for a Trump endorsement, what is the cost of totally changing your political stripes and becoming a different animal, especially when it doesn’t work out? And two: what does it mean for the MAGA machine because there's also a big risk here for Donald Trump. The last thing that he wants is to be told on election night that somebody other than his preferred candidate won the nomination, and did so without his help.
MURPHY: Trump is the bully who cannot resist kicking the sand castle. You could see this one coming a Mar-a-lago something list away. The minute McCormick hired all the Trump factotums to “handle” Trump, the guillotine blade (it’s French week here at the newsletter) started to rise to a ready position. Trump totally relished all this, I guarantee you. Nothing like torturing you own yes-men and yes-ladies (Shorter; Hope Hicks doesn’t tell Marshall Trump what to do!). McCormick’s Faustian deal was doomed from the start. I do feel bad for him. He’s not a clown, but sold at least a sliver of his soul to gain the approval of one… and now we know that it was Lucy and the football all the way.
GIBBS: The other potentially enormous danger is for Republicans writ large (regardless of whether you're in the Dr. Oz camp or not) is the most powerful Republican in the country has just endorsed what I think many people believe will be a somewhat flawed and weak general election candidate. Control of the Senate, unlike the House, is probably not something that people are ready to place big bets on just yet. That’s because in a number of important states with a Senate race, the Republican nominees have yet to be decided. What we simply don’t know is how good the lineup is even if we know Democrats will be in an awful political environment leading up to November. Let me tell you, there are a number of Republicans in Washington having 2010 flashbacks around Nevada, 2012 flashbacks around Missouri, and Senate races that they let slip through their fingers because of weak nominees. I say, let the good times roll!
MURPHY: Doc Oz is a weak candidate, but with Joe Biden’s numbers so low he can still win. We’ll see where Biden is by October. Meanwhile the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania is no sleeper either. Rep Conor Lamb, a moderate who serves in the House from western PA, is an on-paper dream candidate in the general election by any traditional measure. But he’s currently losing the Dem primary to Lt Gov John Fetterman, a charismatic cross between Bernie Sanders, Jesse Ventura and Andre the Giant. Fetterman is way lefty, but also unique. That’s worth something in our screw politics era. This general election race, should it be Fetterman vs Oz, will be something else. Either can win.
GIBBS: In other election news…When things are bad, the mistakes and errors just tend to multiply. While I don't think we were in danger of winning the Senate seat in Iowa, it looks like the leading candidate, Rep. Abby Finkenauer, a former Congresswoman, running against Chuck Grassley might not, based on the latest judicial ruling, have turned in enough signatures to qualify for the ballot in Iowa. You read that right. The leading candidate, less than two years removed from being a sitting member of Congress, couldn't turn in 3,500 total signatures, including 100 or more from 19 counties to qualify for the ballot. Needless to say, the race was a long shot to begin with, but this is a fairly stunning development and goes to the organizational strength of both the candidate and the state party. Understatement of the week, but this doesn’t bode well at all.
MURPHY: Ouch. First the epic Presidential caucus screw up in 2020 and now this. What is it about Iowa Democrats? They used to be quite formidable.
We’ll see you on Friday!
Murphy and Gibbs