What Do Manchin’s Machinations Mean for the Midterms?
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, should we all take back all the bad things we’ve said about Joe Manchin over the last few weeks? Maybe? That’s where we start and what it might mean for the midterms. Then Gibbs dives into the latest polling in Georgia and Murphy gives his latest take on the Tory leadership race.
Let’s begin!
Turning The Manchin Mayhem Into a Midterm Message
MURPHY: Well, so much for my give Manchin a pounding plan! Suddenly he’s leading the new Biden Rescue parade. But, as we’ve said a zillion times in these pages and on the Hacks podcast, a win is a win and this is a good one for Biden. It’s sort of a combo; a bipartisan win (and an important one) on the Made in USA Semiconductor bill (sorry China) and a Democratic partisan win on the healthcare, tax gouge and climate bill. So now the POTUS gets three nice wins and gets them in the nick of time. If the White House comms people ride this right, he can spin a decent comeback narrative. That said, the big political question is the obvious one; will this give Uncle Joe the Geritol boost he so badly needs to avoid a bad thumping in the midterms? I’m dubious, with the Big Bad Inflation Monster still tearing up the political landscape like Haruo Nakajima, in a hot rubber suit at Toho Studios in Tokyo circa 1954. Gibbsie, what say you?
GIBBS: Well, Murphy, don’t look now, but the Dems finally have their you know what together! Before I get into the politics of this, let’s take a second to harp on what’s in this agreement. Maybe most importantly for our burning planet is the largest investment in clean energy and climate solutions ever. The wealthy are going to pay more in taxes. Prescription drugs are going to be cheaper through a policy change more than two decades in the works. Health insurance premiums through Obamacare will continue to be more affordable. This is a big f@#$ing deal. The question now is, as we've talked about, how do you wrap it up into a message that gets Democrats excited? The elements are all there. The question now becomes, which may be the hardest part, how does it get delivered? It’s probably going to bloom in hundreds of campaigns. But, make no mistake, this has the potential to get Democrats excited and energized. Is it a given that it will? No. Is there A LOT to do to get this over the finish line? You bet there is. But the ingredients are all there to put something together delicious! Democrats want to cut the cost of your prescription drugs, while Republicans want to cut your Medicare. Democrats want the rich and big corporations to pay their fair share of taxes, while Republicans think they pay too much and both should get a tax cut. Democrats have a plan to help deal with climate change, Republicans simply deny it’s even happening. The bad economic conditions millions of Americans are dealing with aren’t going away and still have to be addressed by Dems. Making health care and medicine more affordable is a good place to start. Overall, it’s been a very good week for Joe Biden and, when you look back at it, he’s done a lot in his first two years to be proud of and form a campaign around in 2022.
MURPHY: Biden now has a pile of legit wins. First gun control in 30 years. The Semiconductor Bill. Biggest climate change investment in history (though there is some dumb lefty junk stuffed into it, but we’ll save that for another day.) The infrastructure bill. They may not be building FDR statues, but the number of things he's done in the first two years will wind up being fairly significant. Historians just may look back and label the Biden years the Rodney Dangerfield Presidency. But we’ll have to see if the politics start to change and change fast enough to affect the trajectory of the midterms. The best case is probably that Biden’s numbers start to creep back and build enough to help the Dems win the Senate. But we are not there yet. The new factor is Biden — finally — has some wins to work with.
Georgia's Ticket Splitting
GIBBS: So if you’ve been following all the latest polling out of the big races in Georgia, there is a rare split ticket happening between the Governor’s race and the Senate race. In just the last few days there, we’ve seen 4 statewide polls come out with Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock leading his race by an average of 5% in those 4 polls while Republican Governor Brian Kemp leading his race by an average of 3%.
Source: Real Clear Politics
The challenge is Georgia, like so many other states, doesn't really fit the kind of natural bill of a place that is likely to be splitting their ticket. I went back and looked at the 2018 election cycle where 22 states had both Senate races and Governor’s races (that year Minnesota actually had 2 seats in the Senate up for grabs). Of those races, just 4 states voted for a Senator of one party and a Governor of another: AZ, MD, MA and OH. Maryland and Massachusetts are reliably Democratic states that have flirted with moderate Republicans. In Ohio, while the state has trended towards Republicans since Barack Obama won it in 2012, Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to with his Senate seat. Only one state fits the classical definition of a swing state now and that’s Arizona, where Krysten Sinema won her Senate race while Doug Ducey was capturing the Governorship. In the 2020 cycle, just two states, NC and NH, split their tickets between one party for Senate and one party for Governor. The strongest correlation, however, is in Presidential contests with Senate races. Only Maine in 2020, where Susan Collins was re-elected to the Senate while Joe Biden won the the statewide vote, voted for a Presidential nominee of one party and a Senator of another. Yet, even this wasn’t without an asterisk as Trump did pick up an electoral vote in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District due to how the state awards Electoral votes based on the winner of each Congressional district. With just a little more than 100 days to go, will Georgia be a rare instance of ticket splitting in an era of polarization? If it does you can chalk it up to a strong Dem Senate candidate and a weak Republican one because in a state where Joe Biden’s approval is as low as it is, this shouldn’t be a ticket splitting state.
Source: Real Clear Politics
MURPHY: The huge question here is timing. As the race cooks and rages on, and then settles in October, will this level of ticket splitting last? Or is today’s interesting set of numbers a really amazing ice sculpture… and we’ll just see a puddle of ice on election day. The big factors that drive Georgia in my view are: how big the GOP wave winds up being and how bad Hershel Walker will dig himself into trouble. Those two forces are in conflict, one will prevail. In the Gubernatorial race, the advantage is with Kemp.
Murphy’s Tory Corner
MURPHY: First off, as those of you who listened to Tuesday’s podcast know, I’ve joined the British Conservative Party! Yup, I’m a card carrying member now (cost me 25 quid, though I contributed 100 pounds to help make amends for any embarrassment my joining might cause them.) I found out you do not have to be a UK citizen to join, and to vote in the Tory Leadership election! So my plan was to put my vital vote in play and try to lure both final contenders — Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss — on to the pod for a quick fun interview and announce my vote. It was all working fine and a media firestorm was ready to erupt in the British press when, alas, it became clear that you learn a few useful tricks and dodges during 100 years running a global empire. The crafty Brits slipped a footnote into the whole membership thing where new members — like a certain Yank — cannot vote for 90 days after they join. So I’m out of luck and the Tory’s are safe from last minute ballot stuffing, especially from the co-host of a certain Chicago-based podcast! Well played old sports! Still, the invite stands and I will be making my all-powerful endorsement before the voting deadline at the end of August.
In the race, CW has Truss way out ahead, but we’ll see. Polling is tricky in these sort of small voter universe things and Sunak has been on a strong offense in the two TV debates to date. (Thought critics say too strong; charges of “mansplaining” have erupted.) The last debate was fierce enough to apparently knock out the moderator! Hear the thud here (the moderator is okay):
Meanwhile Lord Cruddas is making some noise with a petition — signed by thousands of Tory rank and file party members — to demand Boris be put on the final ballot. So the plot thickens Holmes.
TIDBITS:
Plus in case you missed our primary look ahead for next week from last Friday’s issue, here we go again...
MURPHY: AZ and MI are the next big primaries. Both are grim. In Arizona, a Trump-supported nut is running in first place (again with Democratic money giving an assist), but the GOP regulars (and Mike Pence) are supporting another non-crazy candidate who is creeping up in the polls. We’ll see. In Michigan, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has been in trouble, but is mounting a comeback based on a very weak GOP field. Several R candidates bungled their nominating petitions with a Keystone Kops worthy series of screw ups, leaving only a few C-list ham n’ eggers to compete for the GOP nomination. Pundit Tudor Jones is the most electable – think Gov. Kristi Noem with more of a Michigan twang – but she’s under attack from car dealer Kevin Rinke for having the support of “MAGA-turncoat,” wait for it… Betsy DeVos. Check out his ad:
GIBBS: Also on tap is the primary in Missouri where scandal-plagued former Governor Eric Greitens looks to become the nominee for the U.S. Senate. Could this put another likely GOP seat into the competitive column? And, Murphy, if we are talking about Arizona, don’t forget about the Senate primary there featuring a Trump-backed candidate hoping to take on incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly and an election denier running for Secretary of State. What could go wrong?!
See you on Tuesday!
Murphy and Gibbs