What a Supreme Court Win Means for Biden
Hello Hackaroos!
Well, President Biden finally got a big win on Capitol Hill with the bipartisan and historic confirmation of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson. The question is, how much political love will this win get him before everyone moves on to the rest of his stalled domestic agenda and the midterms. Speaking of moving on, after we talk SCOTUS, we also turn to some midterm tidbits.
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Let’s begin…
BIDEN GETS HIS FIRST SCOTUS JUSTICE, BUT IS IT HIS LAST?
GIBBS: So while Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson’s Supreme Court nomination hasn't gotten the publicity that some recent confirmations have because there wasn't either a lot of tension around the outcome of Thursday’s vote and there wasn't an ideological shift in the Court, this remains a huge accomplishment for President Biden, the White House and Democrats. In the Fall, Judge Jackson will replace Justice Breyer, who will have heard cases for 27 years on the High Court. Not inconceivable that Jackson will similarly impact this country as one of its nine Supreme Court Justices for the next three decades. But unsurprisingly not missing a moment to ramp up politics, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Thursday that he would not commit to a Supreme Court hearing in the last two years of the current Biden administration if Republicans take control of the Senate. So, the new bar is not who occupies the White House in terms of nominating power for the Supreme Court. In reality, it's who controls the Senate. It’s also interesting Murphy that, in just 18 days, McConnell went from opposing Judge Jackson for declining to oppose Court packing - (unclear why a Supreme Court nominee would even weigh in on something like the appropriate number of Justices on the Supreme Court) – to now not committing to hearings for future Biden SCOTUS nominees.
MURPHY: A bit of history; for most of our history Senate SCOTUS nominee confirmations were mostly perfunctory. No big deal. But then once the Democrats got into Robert Bork’s video game rentals and the Kabuki theater started, we began a long decline in the process. And I’ll be the first to admit that the GOP has mastered the art of the useless Senate SCOTUS hearing and taken it to a new low. I say let’s go back to the future and defang the Senate on this one. There is no longer any sense to it, it’s just a partisan proxy war and a grim stage for ambitious Senators to trot across as they shamelessly pander to party interest groups. (And I know it’ll never happen, once politicians find free heroin they never go back.) But I’m over the whole damn thing. It’s become so useless and brings out the worst in everybody.
GIBBS: Yeah, well, to that point, in 1986, Antonin Scalia was confirmed by the United States Senate 98 to zero. Breyer ascended to the Supreme Court on an 87-9 vote in 1994. So if you want to know how much has changed and how quickly, there's your answer. And, as Punchbowl News pointed out this week, next Fall will be the first time in American history that the Supreme Court's majority isn't made up of white men. For the first 170 or so years, it was only white men. So, we’re getting closer to a Supreme Court that looks a little bit more like America and I think that’s a pretty good and important thing.
MURPHY: It is a good thing, but I guess I’m an old codger who should be put up in the Muppet show balcony because I tend to think exemplary character and a brilliant, fair minded legal intellect should be the main thing to look for in a Supreme Court Justice, rather than purely obsess over their DNA code. For me, Judge Jackson meets all those most important criteria with ease. She is an excellent pick for a center left SCOTUS Justice. Going forward I’d like to see more of a celebration of her excellence than just her gender and race. And as you say Gibbs, this was a rare, but badly needed political win for Biden. Unlike Build Back Better, he did not overreach; he picked the smart, obvious winner and he won. A good lesson for the future.
GIBBS: Once I get my baseball, Mr. Murphy, I promise I'll get off your lawn.
MURPHY: I have my garden hose at the ready, you damn felt frog!
GIBBS: And undoubtedly, the Supreme Court is going to rule on the Mississippi case it heard last year. Maybe, it will add this new Oklahoma law to its future docket. So there's no doubt this summer will be fueled by some pretty big decisions from the Supreme Court, which could very well become a huge part of the midterm elections just a few months later. As we've discussed, it'll be interesting to see which side is motivated more as a result of that ruling because I think there's certainly Republicans who want to see the Court effectively strike down Roe v. Wade. And, make no mistake, Mitch McConnell's comment Thursday was very clearly intended for the GOP base to understand just how very important Senate races are in 2022. That decision, and others, could throw some fresh and very big wrinkles into November.
MURPHY: Oklahoma deciding to go back 100 years in time is the sort of thing that could set up a fight over abortion rights before the Supreme Court that could surge into the fall midterm elections. It could even set the suburbs aflame, which would have its biggest impact in the key Senate races. Stay tuned...
TIDBITS:
MURPHY: Getting into the midterms, Trump is worried, so he’s busy. He just released a new group of endorsements; all kooks and all in safe Congressional seats. He’s clearly trying to pad the primary win/loss scorecard in case a few of his slow ponies don’t make it and the CW starts to realize that the Orange Emperor has few clothes, shutter the thought.
GIBBS: Interestingly, we've also had a spat of retirements in the last couple of the weeks on the House side and, unexpectedly, they've been Republican retirements. Fred Upton, not wanting to go against a Trumpy Republican in Michigan, announced his retirement just days after Trump’s rally there (and, more importantly, after being redistricted). On Wednesday, Congressman Bob Gibbs (I promise, no relation) of Ohio announced his retirement for the same redistricting and political reason, paving the way for a former Trump staffer to be to be elected. We’ll have more on Ohio on Tuesday.
MURPHY: It was the Gibbs name that doomed the poor guy. One interesting race where Trump might take a well-deserved loss is North Carolina’s 11th CD (western corner) where creepy frat boy turned Putin loving dim bulb Congressman Madison Cawthorn is in decent trouble. It’s a safe R district, but even the MAGA faithful can smell a real embarrassment here and Cawthorn’s nutty behavior and Go Russia Go attitude on the Ukraine crisis have become a real problem for him. Cawthorn has multiple primary opponents, the leading threat being local State Senator Chuck Edwards who has racked up a ton of GOP endorsements and is moving up fast in new polling.
Cawthorn is hoping Trump’s endorsement and a ton of other candidates splitting the vote will save him in the May 17th primary. But then he’ll likely face a runoff and all it will take is one bad public poll and you can bet Trump will suddenly vanish a big Roadrunner crowd and pull his endorsement like he did to Alabama’s Rep Mo “Now Lonely” Brooks. The Orange One cannot be linked to any losers lest it imply a less than all-powerful effect from his mighty endorsement. Meanwhile, the GOP leadership in DC wants to see Cawthorn gone, so there will be no rescue mission.
Have a great weekend and we’ll see you on Tuesday!
Murphy and Gibbs