We Have Entered The Midterm Fog of War
Hello Hackeroos!
The countdown to the final countdown has begun and things are only going to get closer and more interesting from here. We give our take on where things stand and then note the sad sign of the times with the attack today on Paul Pelosi.
Let's begin...
THE MIDTERM FOG OF WAR
@hacksontapnewsletter: 11 more days…
GIBBS: As of today, there are just 11 days to go before Election Night (if you live in Georgia, buckle up for election overtime…).
There is a lot of static out there. We are now deeply in what we called the "fog of war" time a few editions ago. We know some, but not a lot. If you are looking for good news on either side, you can probably find it quickly. If you are looking for bad news, that’s easy enough, too.
Often the trendlines show movement in one direction as we get toward the end of a cycle. Despite some special elections and polling in August, the political gravity of historical midterms took over recently and are starting to be felt in many races throughout the country.
Those trendlines favor the GOP as I write, despite some good Democratic polling numbers in a lot of the generic congressional ballot polling this week. If you look at Cook Political Report ratings, you see most races moving away from Dems or becoming more competitive for those favoring Dems.
MURPHY: Indeed Gibbsie, but through the thick fog you can hear the heavy horn of a large Democratic Ocean Liner heading toward the ice at flank speed. It’s looking pretty grim for the D’s, and the reason is the same I’ve been honking on about for a year… when in doubt revert to normal. Take a midterm – bad – and add record inflation – even worse – and it’s hard to see a good outcome for the incumbent party.
Source: Cook Political Report
GIBBS: Yes, but, those trendlines leading in one direction don’t necessarily mean we are having a wave election. The extent of any of that won’t be known until Election Night and the days after (or a bit later if, again, you live in Georgia…).
Again, lots and lots of data points.
Early vote in many places show really high numbers. In Georgia, as of last night, nearly 1.5 million voters have cast ballots. Those numbers are far ahead of 2018 and could easily see a record turnout for a midterm election in the state. However, what we obviously don’t know is what the overall universe of voters in any one place like this will be. Again, could be really good news for one side and bad news for the other, but it’s hard to tell at this moment for whom.
There’s LOTS of polling out there, not all of it is high quality. In the Pennsylvania Governor’s race just this week alone, public polls have been released showing Democrat and Attorney General up as much 24% (Center Street PAC) or 23% in the Franklin and Marshall poll or as little as 3% in the Rasmussen poll. The notion that there is such an enormous divergence in the known universe of Pennsylvania voters underscores just how hard it is to get an accurate read on what’s happening out there (see: war, fog of). CBS had it at 9%, probably far closer than the extremes we often see at this point in the election cycle.
Source: CBS News
The Senate feels very, very close. The GOP seems to have put AZ back on the board of seats that could legitimately flip as each side now believes the race is within the margin of error. That gives Republicans a potentially larger field and more combinations to get to 51 seats. The debate in Pennsylvania took center stage and likely left many voters with as many, if not more, questions as before it started. Fetterman clearly is not close to entirely recovered from a stroke. To expect he would be was not likely, but is his recovery to this point sufficient? How will voters interpret his performance when deciding whether he is up to the job of being their next U.S. Senator? Did Oz, who seemed petty and even nasty at times, do enough to help his sky high, potentially catastrophic negative favorability numbers? Remember, those numbers in the CNN poll were more negative than even Gubernatorial hopeful Doug Mastriano. If Chuck Schumer’s hot mic is a clue, the debate hasn’t changed things too much and Dems have momentum in Nevada, but are losing altitude in Georgia. His “analysis” is as good as any probably right now.
Assets and surrogates are being deployed throughout the country. Former President Obama is in Georgia today for the Democratic ticket, all too aware of what an insufficiently energized Democratic base can mean in a midterm election. More stops are planned. Late money is being raised quickly and spent even faster as campaigns and surrogates race to get their closing arguments in front of voters before they make up their minds.
Source: The New York Times
If you’re looking for a good read of where we are right now, take a spin through the New York Times story today about the polling and political environment in four House seats, 3 of which are considered toss ups, in different regions of the country. It’s a conflicted and almost certainly weary electorate. And we’ll have to wait 11 more days (and likely even more) to find out their final verdict this year.
MURPHY: I think the Dems are going to lose control of the Senate. I think they lose GA, PA, WI and NV. They pick up nothing. There might even be a GOP upset in WA or CO. I’m not certain, but that’s how I’d bet. It’s gonna be… a midterm. And while the D’s have Roe wind at their back, it’s not going to be enough to overcome inflation and kitchen table economic pain.
A SAD SIGN OF THE TIMES
GIBBS: Murphy, I’ll end this: with a word about the horrible attack on Speaker Pelosi’s husband in San Francisco. I was in the White House when Congresswoman Gabby Giffords was shot outside a grocery store as she met with constituents during a “Congress on Your Corner” event outside Tucson, Arizona. A gunman injured 18 others that day, killing six including a Federal judge. It was horrific and shocking just as this event surely is. It should be a sober reminder with 11 days to go that the rhetoric we see in our politics today, the winks and nods towards okaying violence as an acceptable means of dissent should have no place in our public debates. Yet again it does and this is what happens. I fear it’s only going to get worse. Say a prayer, regardless of your political leanings or party affiliation, for Paul Pelosi. It shouldn’t ever come to this. It isn’t who most of us are. But, unless those that foment hate understand their words sow the seeds of violence, it likely won’t be the last.
MURPHY: Totally agree. And the GOP owes the country a strong statement from the Leadership condemning this. Instead, we get clumsy attempts to use it to sell “crime” on Fox News. It’s shameful and deeply irresponsible. This is the nasty chicken of political hate trolling coming home to roost. It’s man made. And it must stop. GOP Patriots across every level of the party must speak up, loudly and without hesitation. And as of this afternoon, I’m still waiting…
On that somber note, we’ll see you next week. The countdown really begins!
Murphy and Gibbs