Time is Ticking on a Gun Bill
Hello Hackaroos!
Welcome back after a long weekend. The President and First Lady spent part of the time in Uvalde, Texas, speaking with the families of last week’s tragic school shooting. Onlookers chanted “Do something!” and he promised he would. But, right now, all the action on guns is in the Senate where we start today.
Let’s hop right in!
WILL SOMETHING ACTUALLY GET DONE?
GIBBS: On Sunday, Sen. Chris Murphy sounded ever so slightly optimistic about the possibility of legislative progress on guns (though he did say he had been Charlie Brown’ed enough after one of these all too frequent gun massacres). He said he’s at the table and Republicans are more willing to talk than after the Sandy Hook school shooting nearly a decade ago. Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who has been tasked by Mitch McConnell to have these talks with Democrats, said today the bipartisan group would meet virtually to continue their discussions and see if they can move forward.
Will it happen? Should we actually be optimistic? Frankly, we should know this pretty quickly, likely by week’s end. The longer these discussions/negotiations go on, the longer we get away from the shock and horror of what’s happened over the past few weeks in this country, the less likely anything is actually going to happen to make the situation better. As I said last week, if there’s a will to do this, then I think there are enough Senators to make it happen. This all rests largely with the Republicans and whether they feel like they need to do something to help. Democrats know they aren’t getting an assault weapons ban (regardless of what the President and Vice President said over the long weekend). But, right now, they’ll take progress on a red flag law or strengthened background checks. The question is will Republicans meet them halfway?
MURPHY: I agree and my fingers are crossed. There is a ray of hope, but with that said we’ve all been disappointed before. Still, even the codgers in the Senate know something needs to be done. There is outrage among the best of them and the cynics would like to show at least a little bit of action to try to get the energy out of the issue lest it become a danger to their reelection efforts. So, what are the scenarios? The best one is outlined in this Mike DeBonis piece from the Washington Post.
After Parkland Florida’s GOP state Senators and Representatives bucked the Sunshine state’s very powerful NRA lobby to pass gun legislation. It was an impressive moment with the bulk of the state Republican caucus “jumping off the cliff together” to take action. And the moral of the story? NONE of them lost their re-elects over the gun issue. It was actually a win for them, which polling has told us forever about moderate gun reform issues like background checks. To his credit, GOP Senator (and former Governor) Rick Scott has been trying hard to evangelize his Senate to colleagues to this political reality; smart gun bills can be a win for Republicans. A reasonable combination of the red-flag laws Lindsey Graham supports along with CT Democrat Richard Blumenthal and a stronger background check law could be the incremental step that is politically possible. Not easy though. No shortage of GOP Senators are thinking about 2024 Presidential races and none want to tangle with the NRA in southern GOP primaries. Meanwhile liberal hopes for tougher measures like an assault weapon ban are certain to be dashed.
MIDTERM MELANCHOLY FOR THE D’s:
GIBBS: With just 23 weeks to go until Election Day (yes, I counted it up), the Cook Political Report’s latest Election 2022 outlook doesn’t have a lot of good news for Democrats. They shifted 10 races in the direction of the GOP and just 2 in the direction of Democrats. 32 Democratic seats are either considered tossups (23 seats), lean Republican (6 seats) or likely Republican (3 seats). On the GOP side, 9 seats are tossups and just one seat is considered lean Democratic. Democrats are also defending 11 more seats that frequent Hacks guest Dave Wasserman considers lean Democratic.
One thing that struck me looking at the states is in Nevada (did you pronounce it correctly?), where the 3 seats held Democrats (Reps. Dina Titus, Susie Lee and Steven Horsford) are all considered tossups. Additionally, the Senate race, where incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto is seeking a second term AND the Governor’s race, where incumbent Steve Sisolak is fighting for re-election, are also considered tossups. Murphy, we each have the states we’re obsessed with but, wow, we’d better look West my friend! The important GOP primary is in just two weeks (June 14th) and early voting started Saturday. If you’re looking for more political info on Nevada, check out the election coverage of the Nevada Independent and follow Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) on Twitter. He’s forgotten more on Nevada politics than most humans will ever know!
MURPHY: It’s grim. And Joe Biden just doesn’t seem to have the political communications skills to change much. On the podcast we recorded today with ace Dem political hand Doug Sosnik – hacksontap.com – I said watching Biden try to communicate in a politically effective way on domestic policy matters is like watching a guy sit down and try to play the piano while wearing a catcher’s mitt. Sorry Joe, but it’s just not good. Calling for national action on gun control (with a march on DC and other big drama optics) could be a way to pound out some effective notes, but the Biden WH seems afraid to try anything that big. Unfortunate… the Senate needs to feel real pressure to oil their badly rusted wheels of forward motion.
GIBBS: Lastly, the leak of the draft decision on Roe v. Wade has captured much, if not all, of the attention around the upcoming decisions to be handed down shortly. But, given all the talk about what to do next on guns, don’t overlook a potentially landmark case that could determine just how much Congress and states can act to reasonably regulate firearms.
The decision involves a century old New York law, but its ramifications today could be enormous. The Court hasn’t been deeply involved in a gun case since the Heller decision in 2008, where the Court first held that the Second Amendment protects someone’s right to keep and bear arms for self-defense. Importantly, though, then-Justice Antonin Scalia also wrote that reasonable prohibitions are also lawful. This Court could easily go farther in determining exactly what is or isn’t reasonable when it rules in a few weeks and its impact, again, will be felt throughout this campaign.
MURPHY: There is also no shortage of state action ramping up on the gun issue, albeit in Democratic states that already have tough gun laws.
TIDBIT:
MURPHY: One important signal that has been a bit missed in the primary noise about Trump’s loses and wins and the never-ending Prog versus moderate battle inside the Democratic part is this choice item about the open-seat races to fill the seats of a few GOP fire-breathers who are leaving Congress for one reason or another. WaPo’s Paul Kane had a smart piece last week on a bit of return to some normalcy in these races. Interesting stuff and worth a read.
And in Michigan, the epic signature-gate roars along. We’ve mentioned this before, but it got real last Thursday when Michigan’s State Board of Canvassers met and officially zotched five GOP candidates off the primary ballot for having tons of bad signatures on their nominating petitions. (Michigan requires candidate nominating petitions to have 15,000 legit signatures and these clowns had tons of obvious forgeries.)
Both leading candidates – former Detroit police chief James Craig and self-proclaimed “Quality Control Expert” and world-class Porter Waggoner look alike Perry Johnson – were knocked off the ballot. Both are howling about lawsuits, but it looks like it’s curtains for them to me. Incumbent Democratic Gov Gretchen Whitmer is still in trouble, but this is a bit of good news for her.
See you on Friday!
Murphy and Gibbs