The U.K.’s Next P.M. + Our Hacks Campaign Kickoff Mailbag Part II
Hello Hackaroos!
Welcome to the official Hacks on Tap countdown to Election 2022. Even though we still have a few primaries left (including today in Massachusetts), the day after Labor Day marks the final sprint to the midterms in November. What better way to kick things off with answers to your questions and comments that you all diligently sent through this past week. Before we get there though, we give our take on Trump’s pearl clutching response to Biden’s big primetime speech. Plus, Murphy’s take on the big Prime Minister news out of the UK.
Let’s go!
Murphy’s Tory Corner – We Have a Winner
MURPHY: The oddity – at least by American standards and since we are in the middle of a multi-year Trump circus we’ve very much lost our standing to call any other democratic system “odd” – that is the Tory Leadership contest is now over. Front-runner Liz Truss has, as expected, prevailed over early leader Rishi Sunak. A few observations. First, this was a classic inside vs. outside race. As you may recall, Sunak dominated the early caucus voting segment of the contest, leading in the multiple ballots among just serving Tory MPs. But once that death pit narrowed the contest to just two contestants, the party grassroots took over and it was all Truss. She united the Tory right and Sunak’s prime Brutus-esque role in the downfall of Boris Johnson did him few favors. Second, as usual CW here proved to be a bit of an inside bubble; read the press coverage and the expectation was that Truss would totally crush Sunak. The actual result of 57% Truss, 42% Sunak was a strong victory, but as predicted here, Sunak finished better than this (awful) expectations. Finally the contrast between U.S. style primary elections (millions of voters) and the U.K.’s party paid member system is striking. About 160,000 members voted in the leadership, with Truss’ margin of victory just 20,000 votes. Now, she is PM. She’ll have a honeymoon, but it’ll be short as the U.K. political CW machine will now pounce on the big question: can the rightish true believer stuff that propelled her to victory in the Leadership, work in the general election and Labour? Most wags thought the smoother Sunak would make a far stronger candidate against Labour. Truss begged to differ; now Prime Minister Truss will have the chance to prove it.
Trump Clutches His Pearls in PA and is Granted a Special Master
MURPHY: Trump never losses an opportunity to go full apocalypse mode (remember his Gotham City is Burning acceptance speech in 2016 at the GOP convention?). My guess is, as usual, the Orange Menace’s instincts and political strategy are one in the same; bring things to a screaming boil. He knows that the U.S. justice system abhors interfering in elections; so the more he acts like a candidate, the more he can pitch his legal troubles as a purely political setup by his opponents. That’s why – along with well-deserved paranoia about his declining standing in the party – I won’t be surprised if he soon announces at least the early steps in running for President. As a candidate, he’s hoping prosecutors will be nervous to go after him. Maybe, but the more we learn about his top secret country club rec room, the more obvious his crimes appear to be.
GIBBS: Trump really let loose last weekend in PA. Biden as an enemy of the state, calling out the FBI. The latest and greatest from the former President, who predictably wants to take his weak legal case and thrust it into a political venue. That’s why he invoked the idea that this wasn’t just about attacking him, it was about attacking all his supporters too. Even with a Federal judge appointing a Special Master, Trump’s still facing a court battle the likes of which he hasn’t seen in a very long time. And his political case looks weak too where in PA his nominees are both struggling to keep up now just 9 weeks from Election Day. Trump went all in in the 2022 elections and right now, not many of those bets are looking to pay off.
YOUR MAILBAG ANSWERS - PART II
TTom Long: You have been calling for Biden to go after the do-nothing Republicans to reframe the mid-terms. He has chosen to go directly after Trump and the MAGA nuts. Has he chosen wisely? Do folks in voter land respond to partisan labels or is he onto something with his “threat to democracy” framing?
MURPHY: I liked his speech as a citizen and agree with about every word. As a political, win the campaign matter, I was far more meh. The Trump factor is cooked in, and Trump will insert himself into the campaign even more, to Biden’s benefit. But the election, in my view, will turn in most places on family economics and Biden’s numbers in that vital category remain deadly poor. Piling on Trump excites the Trump-hating votes Biden already has. So the speech was fine, but the line of attack he used in my view is not the core path to a midterms comeback.
GIBBS: Picking a greater fight with Trump just as he bursts into the daily news cycle having taken hundreds of pages of Top Secret documents is a great fight. Plus, the issue of protecting our democracy is becoming a greater concern, largely because Trump is helping to nominate candidates in this year’s biggest races that will parrot his Big Lie. What Biden and the White House are doing most successfully is turning a referendum on Biden into a choice between Biden and Trump. Given the voter outrage driven by the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs, if inflation and the economy can improve, Dems might just hold their own in 2022.
Andrew Kiesow: How serious are the GOP's money and fundraising concerns? What impact could they have on '22?
MURPHY: My best guess is some genius on Senator Scott’s consultant staff talked him into blowing the bank account on massive digital donor prospecting (searching for new low dollar online givers). The outside pitch is this brilliant effort was a canny strategy to muscle up the NRSC fundraising machine for the election. But the real pitch was internal to Sen. Scott. “We’ll send out zillions of digital appears, FEATURING YOU, and that’ll build up your image and name ID with party base voters. Hello 2024 Primaries, Mister President to be!” Idiocy and his colleagues are irate. That epic mistake is being amplified as part of the endless money wars between rival GOP political consultant crime families… an eternal struggle pitting those on the “ins” with the current Senator leading the committee and the “outs.” The Dems have these vender catfights too, but this one has gone public and nuclear. Will it cripple GOP Senate efforts? No, there are other groups that can step in. Is it year another 2022 GOP Senate problem? Absolutely.
GIBBS: For the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the money problems are significant, as the article above details. However, Mitch McConnell’s SuperPAC has an incredible amount of money to help fill the gap left by Rick Scott’s bungling. Once upon a time, I’d have found it hard to believe, with all that is at stake, that money would decide these races, but I do think Republicans are in a legitimate pickle and unable to truly press Democrats like they normally might be able to, especially if McConnell is having to spend $30 million just to make sure Ohio stays red.
Tina Cassell: How do you think Trump being indicted (which the lawyers over at Lawfare seem to think is a very high probability given the DOJ's recent moves) will impact Republicans? Is it wishful thinking that some Trump voters will move away from him given the sheer volume of government documents he straight up stole? Is there any way to message to Trump voters about that might reach them?
MURPHY: It’s important to understand while most GOP base voters are Trump fans, not nearly all of them are “Trump voters.” Polling shows a plurality of GOP voters want to move on. If he is indicted and convicted, he’ll fade politically. If he beats the rap, he’ll have a surge of martyrdom.
GIBBS: I’d believe some GOPers might move away from him given just how egregious and serious this case really is right now. I also tend to believe that Trump is stronger with his die hard base because he’s now making this about them and not just him. I still think, right now, he’s the likeliest GOP nominee for President in 2024, but also think his actions and antics make it more likely every day that he’ll lose that election.
Jocelyn Grayson: Despite the fact that there have been plenty of mediocre presidents who were previously governors, I’ve come to think that a governor at the top of the ticket and a Senator/Rep as VP might be the optimal combination. If Whitmer were to win re-election, what are your thoughts on Whitmer-Booker in 2024?
MURPHY: I think Cory would love that idea, if you switch the order of the names. But the idea of a Governor-led ticket is historically the most common scenario.
GIBBS: A Governor would be great for Dems if Biden doesn’t run, partly because they’ve been executives in government, but also because they don’t work in Washington. Whitmer is a great campaigner, she’s great on TV and she’s from a very important state in Michigan. The question, as always, is does she want to come off of the hard time she’s gone through from COVID to re-election, and hop into a national campaign? Does she have the fire in the belly to do that?
Jarrod Colley: How would you advise young organizers to counter the apathy/dismay currently being felt by Gen Z toward politics? Things seem to always get worse, not better, and the institutional barriers to change feel insurmountable.
MURPHY: Hammer ‘em. Nobody changes the world with a “whine on Harvest Moon” campaign plan, to quote my heroic old pal George H.W. Bush. Maybe the generation got that handled a rifle and a map to Berlin and Tokyo at 18 just plain understands it better, but the option is to either act or get out of the way.
GIBBS: Well, I’d start by saying if you think anything is getting better with more and more people apathetically sitting on the sidelines rather than getting involved, well, that’s just stupid. Our system requires people to care in order to bring about real change. Also, our system of government doesn’t make big change possibly all that quickly. But my guess is that most of the issues younger voters care about are of huge global importance, like climate change. If they don’t do it, who will? The consequences are too big to let apathy win.
Ian Bremmer: Over/under that more than 10-15% of voters are aware of the ira bill, the chips act, the bipartisan infrastructure law, and the gun control bill come November?
MURPHY: Unless the Dems screw up – always possible – and go all Trump all the time I think they will. They all have voter grip, with the chips bill in particular a big winner politically… if the Dem campaigns invest the time and resources to make a big 2022 bumper-sticker out of it (in plan language).
GIBBS: By November, I’m taking the over because virtually every Democratic candidate has a BIG interest in using those precious fundraising dollars to run TV and digital ads making sure that voters know about all of those things. For them, their re-elections absolutely depend on getting that number considerably higher.
Kathleen Francesca: I listened to Murphy and Ayres’ assessment of Mandela Barnes and think you’re underestimating his potential to turn out Milwaukee. It’s all about Milwaukee and Dane counties.
MURPHY: If Barnes can turnout Milwaukee and Dane counties to Presidential year levels, then you win the bet, Kathleen. But nobody’s ever done that before in a midterm. Sen. Johnson has a ton of political weaknesses, but I’ll bet you a round at Wolski’s Tavern (or Romans’ Pub) that his greatest wish this year was to get an opponent he can go after ideologically to take the focus of the election off him and put it on Joe Biden (currently with a 55% disapproval rating in WI polling) and his Democratic opponent. Team Johnson thinks they got their wish. We’ll see: It’ll be a tough, close race and you are right that turnout will be critical.
GIBBS: I’m bullish on Barnes and bullish on Dems in Wisconsin. It’s a HUGE race for us. If we win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Dems could lose two incumbents and still control the Senate. Plus, Murphy is trying to distract from the biggest candidate challenge in this race and it is absolutely not Barnes, it’s Ron Johnson. The last 9 weeks will be rough on both sides with lots and lots of negative ads but I am optimistic on this one.
Benjamin Demers: Best place for drinks in DC? Or Alexandria VA?
GIBBS: Two places in Old Town Alexandria: Barca and Hank’s Oyster Bar.
MURPHY: Of course, Fancy Gibbs goes for Barca! I’d pitch Dew Drop Inn, Dan’s and (I’m told) Ivy and Coney for beers and Detroit style pizza. (I’m rusty on DC, haven’t been there as much since 2016 due to the late unpleasantness.)
Cheryl Fleming: Love you guys. Let's be real here. What are the chances of this being our very last free and fair election, if indeed it isn't somehow completely corrupted by GOP infiltrates. This must be communicated at every juncture with a defcon 11 red alert. Otherwise this is all just talking around the issue staring us in the face. If the GOP takes back the House, WE ARE DONE.
MURPHY: Lighten up Francis! (And I say that with love.) Sure, the knuckleheads made a move. And we stopped it; God Bless the Judges and GOP election officials who did the right thing in multiple states. It’s a threat and we are all awake to it now. But I remain ultimately confident in American Democracy. But people must join the peaceful yet resolute fight, no more yawning from the sidelines and tuning back into the Real Housewives of Rapid Cultural Decline. (And pass the Electoral Count Reform Act!)
GIBBS: Great question. I think we should be more worried than at any time in recent memory. Democracy, as President Biden said in Philadelphia last week, isn’t guaranteed in this country, it was to be protected and nurtured. The candidates who are still telling people eth elections in 2020 were stolen are dangerous. Best thing to do is take the worry and put it to work getting friends to vote to save democracy in November.
Rachel Baron: Pearl Clutching Index. OMG. hahahahaha I'm dyin' ovah heah
MURPHY: Dems do have a genius for it…
GIBBS: Glad you like it!
And with that, here's our Midterms Meter...
Thanks again for all of your questions and comments. See you on Friday!
Murphy and Gibbs