The State of Joe Biden’s Union
Hello Hackaroos,
As President Biden travels to Capitol Hill to undertake the traditional reporting of the state of our union, what does that look like for him? There’s his political health and what impact Ukraine has on both the speech and the agenda. That’s our focus for what could easily be Biden’s biggest moment of the year before the American people lose interest, then we turn to some tidbits. Plus, happy primary day in Texas as the mid-terms officially begin!
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IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT THE ECONOMY, STUPID… BUT WHAT ABOUT THE UKRAINE?
GIBBS: The State of the Union and the Presidential primetime addresses have a diminishing audience because of declines in TV viewership and an increase in political polarization. This night isn’t what it was 10 or 15 years ago, when President Obama drew nearly double the 26.9 million viewers Joe Biden got last year. However, this still represents his best opportunity and biggest audience with the American people in 2022. And Murphy, if you look at the Washington Post poll from this weekend, the state of Joe Biden's union is fundamentally about economic anxiety and discontent. His overall approval rating was 37% approve/55% disapprove for a -18 net score. On the economy, it’s even worse at 37% approve/58% disapprove (-21 net). When voters are asked who the trust more to do a better job handling the economy, Republicans have a 54% to 35% lead. And, it’s not just this poll where you see low approval ratings overall combined with an even poorer showing on the economy. To me, Joe Biden has to focus on middle class economics and working families in tonight’s speech in a way in which many of Americans don't feel like he's done too well up to this point.
Tonight, I'm listening for what this White House and what his Administration are going to do, if they have anything they can do, to deal with rising prices and continued inflation, even as what happens on the international stage (we'll get to that in a moment) is only likely to make energy and food prices go even higher (oil prices hit a 7-year high just this morning). Joe Biden's challenges on the economy only get even harder with Russia invading Ukraine. So I'm listening to hear if Joe Biden is not just empathetic and one with struggling Americans who are feeling the broad pinch of their lives getting more expensive than they really have over the past 20 or so years, but what he has in mind to make life more affordable. Ukraine, Russia and the increasingly horrific pictures and reports can and will get a lot of time tonight, far more than was likely in the draft speech just a week ago. But, it’s still the economy, stupid (hat tip to James Carville).
MURPHY: Biden is in a vice. The ABC/Washington Post poll makes it quite clear he is getting the deluxe political beating any POTUS receives when inflation is high and grumpy voters feel an economic squeeze. Plus he has the usual off-year headwinds and COVID grumpiness is alive and well out in voter land. Plus, a crisis in Ukraine. The irony, cruel as it may be, is that the economy is showing many economic signs of strength; high employment level, pre-Ukraine stock market enthusiasm about a post-COVID recovery, growth increasing – again pre-Ukraine. But prices – read inflation – is what voters feel and they are feeling pain. So I agree Gibbs, Biden has to powerfully reconnect with middle class economics in his speech… and do it in a far better and more effective way than the hopeless word salad of that tired and budget breaking Build Back Better laundry list.
And, of course, there is another elephant, make that bear, in the room. Ukraine. I agree with my old friend Mitt Romney; Biden has done a magnificent job pulling NATO together and pre-empting any Russian attempt to frame their brutal invasion as anything other than the criminal act of a rogue state. So I give the POTUS an A… but Ukraine could still become a political problem for the President.
Biden’s dilemma is Americans are watching the horrors of the Ukraine invasion and – having been raised on decades of action movies and smart bomb nose camera footage – asking why we don’t unleash the most expensive and powerful Air Force in the history of the world, along with warplanes of our most powerful NATO allies, and crush these blood thirsty Russian troops as they fire endless swarms of rockets and artillery shells at innocent civilians. Americans see a bad guy and a bully and want to stop the awful carnage.
But Biden has to operate in a more complicated and less emotional world. He and his team – and NATO’s – know the dangers of an escalation ladder and a possible bonkers Russian strongman who has backed himself into a corner. It’s a tough one. While it’s true NATO air power would make short work of Ukraine’s invaders, the Russians are not without several ways to escalate the situation. So the no fly concept, while attractive in some ways, carries great risk. Now I’m not one who buys the simple equation that escalation automatically means a nuclear war; MAD deterrence has worked for a long time for a reason. Nobody wins a nuclear exchange, particularly the Russians. They’ve played the nuclear bluff many times before and it’s only been noise. The bigger risk in my view is that knocking Russian planes out of the sky – satisfying as it sounds – could unite Russia around Putin and actually strengthen his hand in the internal Russian leadership politics, where I believe he is now in great risk. Better to continue reducing the ruble to the value of monopoly money, arm the Ukrainians to the teeth (more powerful air defenses and maybe even some F-16s with volunteer European and American pilots to fly them – an old Soviet method from Korea and Vietnam, by the way) and see how long the oligarchs and top Russian military brass continue to support Putin. But selling that deadly bear hug strategy in a State of the Union address – as more and more photos come out of Ukraine showing the murdered innocents of Putin’s brutal new rocket attacks – is going to be a real challenge for the White House.
GIBBS: I come to a similar conclusion on giving them a good grade for their efforts to this point and for what they need to do going forward. Biden deserves a lot of credit, with a crucial assist from passion and determination of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in putting together a coalition of really tough sanctions against Russia, Putin and his oligarchs. Ukraine is now going to take a lot of this President's time and energy. Tonight, also gives Biden a chance to make it matter more with the American people. We know voters are wary of getting American troops overly involved, favoring instead some limits to our overall involvement. The public polling suggests that some level of tough economic sanctions is the extent of the American people's real appetite for action and the big challenge for Biden is that sanctions drop in popularity if you factor in that energy costs are about to go up (again). I think there's a lot of chatter out there among observers that Ukraine has changed the arc of this presidency. I don't necessarily, at least at that at this point, agree with that, but I do agree Murphy and, it pains me to continue to say this, this administration has to do a better job of talking directly to the American people about this. Tonight presents its best opportunity to start the real project of talking to the American people about why what is happening in eastern Europe is so important, even if filling the SUV up with gas gets more expensive.
MURPHY: Maybe Biden can get away with pitching high gas prices as a small price to pay to break Putin. I think voters are easily capable of being mad both at gas prices and seeing Biden as too passive as a horrific slaughter of innocents rages in Ukraine.
MURPHY: Finally the other – brand new – SOTU challenge for Biden is the loudmouths in his own party. Now we have reliable Squad loudmouth Rep Rashida Tliab giving her own “response” to the State of the Union and now others are doing the same! I guess heckling the President of you own party with a vanity State of the Union is the new cool Democratic thing.
Madness! The GOP House campaign at the NRCC would put out a statement on this, but they are too busy rolling on the floor laughing so hard they cannot breathe.
TIDBITS:
The former President speaking at CPAC on Saturday to an adoring crowd (Credit: Joe Raedle / Getty Images News)
GIBBS: Let's pick up our often discussed debate about the relative health and strength of Donald Trump inside of the Republican Party. And I have for you two exhibits today for you, counselor Murphy. Exhibit number one is the polling at CPAC, The Conservative Political Action Conference, also known as the bar scene from Star Wars.
MURPHY: That’s an insult to Star Wars!
GIBBS: Agreed! Well, the poll suggests that Donald Trump's position among these conference goers is stronger than it was just a year ago. 85% said they would support former President Donald Trump if he ran for the White House in 2024, up from 68% a year ago. In a straw poll, Trump beat Ron DeSantis 59% to 28% this year. A year ago, Trump was beating DeSantis 55 to 21. That, plus Exhibit #2 in watching the verbal contortions of Tom Cotton (the Russian judge gave him a 10.0 on the uneven bars!) on with George Stephanopoulos Sunday. George gave him not one, not two, but three opportunities to walk away from Donald Trump's portrayal of Vladimir Putin as a strategic genius. Tom Cotton's great answer was he doesn't speak for other politicians. The verbal gymnastics here are astounding even for Tom Cotton. I mean he regularly criticizes exactly what other politicians say! It again shows you these guys are scared of Donald Trump because they know Donald Trump is like the pied piper. He's leading the Republican Party in a different direction. What I don’t get either is if Trump runs in 2024 and these guys do too, they realize they’ll need to draw at least SOME contrast with Trump, why not start by drawing the line at lavishing Vladimir Putin with praise! I rest my case. Murphy, what say you?
MURPHY: Canny observation, Comrade Gibbs. But the problem with CPAC polls is they, unlike real polls have a margin of error of 110%. CPAC is a political tourist event for a tiny sliver of the activist world of the noisy n’ nutty faction of the GOP. Check out this list of sure thing to POTUS straw poll winners from past CPAC meetings: Presidents Phil Gramm, Jack Kemp, Steve Forbes, Gary Bauer, Rudy Giuliani, George Allen, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. It’s like a Mt Rushmore of campaign debts and concession speeches. Still, I do agree the amazing lack of backbone regarding Trump’s sick bromance with the vile Putin is staggering. It’s a tell that none of the leading Trump Lite candidates like Josh Hawley or Tom Cotton are willing to even take a tiny sparrow peck at Trump. It’s why I think the post-Trump Trumpist strategy is a loser for these guys. Who wants cheap imitations?
Still the heroics of the people of Ukraine and their leader President Zelensky has reminded a lot of Republican rank and file voters why we joined the GOP cause to begin with. I think what’s happening in Ukraine has created a crack in the Trump – GOP bond and it is a crack that will spread. We’ll see if I’m right, but I feel an inflection point building.
Hell, if he survives, and I pray he will, maybe President Z will endorse Liz Cheney! We sure know he’s not on Team Trump.
And with that, God Save Free Ukraine!
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Murphy and Gibbs