THE RETURN OF THE VITAL DEBATE
Hello Hackaroos!
Much has happened on the campaign trail in the past couple of days and it’s played out as much of the 2022 campaign has to date, dominated by two big things. On one side, it turns out inflation is (still) running pretty hot and is (still) a big political problem for Democrats on the ballot this year. On the other side, stories have thrust Trump (again) onto the center stage as we read and are reminded (again) about fomenting violence at the Capitol on January 6th and (again) how he sought to evade the Presidential Records Act and enlisted a staffer to move boxes of documents, some of which were classified. The Committee investigating his actions around what happened on January 6th upped the ante by issuing a subpoena for his testimony.
But, alas, our topic today is the two important upcoming Senate debates and the impact they could actually have on the outcome of two monumental races.
Let’s begin!
THE RETURN OF THE VITAL DEBATE
Credit: Getty Images / kbeis
GIBBS: We’ve written here in the newsletter a lot about how debates have been slow to materialize in 2022 or even if they’d have any impact in a world where few see them and as a polarized electorate merely watches a 90-minute replay of their candidate’s greatest hits against their opponent and renews their support for the candidate they supported before each debate started.
Frankly, it’s easy to be cynical about these events in 2022.
Well, starting in just a few hours, we are going to test that cynicism and likely see what impact head-to-head debates really can have this cycle. And, because we’ve been telling you that this year’s most interesting states would be Georgia and Pennsylvania, it’s fitting that tonight’s debate between Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock and GOP challenger Herschel Walker as well as the debate 11 days later between Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Dr. Mehmet Oz for the open seat in PA provide this backdrop. Obviously, both races feature very close contests taking place in either a traditionally purple swing state or a newly minted one. However, what makes these two debates unique is that each candidate has important tests to overcome if they hope to be the winner on Election Night (or in a runoff because, well, none of this can ever be easy!).
Let’s start with Georgia, where tonight in Savannah, the most watched political event of 2022 will take place. The normal backdrop for this would, frankly, have been enough to make this a hugely consequential debate. A first-time candidate in Walker, who skipped debates during the primary season so as not to get dusted up or tested on his views around issues, faces an incumbent Senator who’s known for his commanding eloquence on the campaign trail and from the pulpit of the church Martin Luther King Jr. made famous. Walker, even on a good day, hasn’t shown much command around Federal issues, so this debate was always going to be a big test for him. Could he transform himself from the beloved college and pro running back and convince Georgians he was ready to be their U.S. Senator? In the lead up, Walker, as many rookie candidates do, tried to set expectations that Warnock would run circles around him. Even for the age old game of expectations setting, it seemed almost extraordinary.
Then, the mother (literally) of all campaign crises hit the Walker campaign. On October 3, a former girlfriend told a reporter that Herschel wanted her to end her pregnancy by getting an abortion. She produced a receipt for that abortion, plus a check from Walker and even a get-well card emblazoned with his signature. More revelations have come, including the allegation that this happened again, but the woman refused and had the child. While Walker has denied any of this happened, his current wife and this woman were reportedly texting each other, putting pressure on Walker’s response that he had no knowledge of these events and the charges were a lie.
The impact on Walker’s poll numbers has been clear. Leading up to the publication of this story and the allegations against Walker, he was beginning to pull even or ahead of Warnock in several polls and the idea that Georgia could elect both re-elect a Republican Governor and add a GOP Senator seemed very, very real. But six polls have been released since the first story broke and all now show Warnock in the lead. A Quinnipiac poll this week put Warnock’s lead at 7 and, importantly, his overall support above 50%. Even GOP polling outfit Trafalgar shows Warnock ahead, albeit by just 1. Regardless, the effect is clear. That brings us to tonight.
With just 24 days to go, the bright studio lights will undoubtedly put Walker in a spotlight he hasn’t been in since his NFL days. While normally a challenger like this might hope to gain some stature standing next to an incumbent Senator and giving potentially worried voters a glimpse of his ability to do the very same job of the actual Senator standing next to him, this will likely be very different. Walker is almost certainly going to have to finally answer pointed questions about these allegations. Does he know this woman? Did these events happen? If she’s “lying” why does she have a receipt, a check and card from Walker? Why does he believe this woman should have an abortion when he believes others, by law shouldn’t have the same access? If he can navigate those specifics, what likely awaits are additional character questions around his actions related to fathering children he didn’t acknowledge or admitting to putting a gun to his ex-wife’s head. Next up, policy issues he hasn’t been altogether adroit at discussing will be front and center. How does this first-time candidate and seemingly first-time debater handle all of this?
Warnock, too, will be tested. Walker’s expectations setting aside, some viewers and a decent number of media members will believe the incumbent will easily best his green challenger in this setting, making his performance scrutinized heavily too. He’ll be pressed by Walker on the issues each Democrat is getting this year, including inflation, crime and immigration all with the backdrop of President Joe Biden’s 44% approval/53% disapproval in Georgia according to the Quinnipiac poll. Can he reassure voters that a Democrat is who they should send again to Washington rather than a GOPer to serve alongside Democrat Jon Ossoff? Can he pivot effectively and put Walker on the defensive? While Warnock will undoubtedly question Walker’s view around the Supreme Court’s ruling on abortion and its impact in Georgia, does he pressure Walker around the recent allegations or leave this to the debate’s moderators? How does he handle likely attacks from Walker on Warnock’s personal life and divorce?
In Pennsylvania, John Fetterman’s once comfortable lead in the polls is now a fraction of what it once was, though this was always likely to be a very close race. Fetterman’s stroke earlier this year adds a critical wrinkle to both this race and this upcoming clash with his GOP rival. An interview he gave this week, his first on camera since his stroke, started, again, a discussion around his health. The debate will give everyone the ability to see how he’s recovered and how well he performs and his ability to continue getting better while serving in the U.S. Senate. He’ll have to answer pointed questions about his record on crime.
His opponent though won’t get off unscathed either. There’s a reason Dr. Oz has trailed in this race the entire time. His medical background and his (actual) state of residence coupled with his views on Trump and abortion are likely to be center stage. Oz’s negative ratings continue to be sky high and in the range most candidates only have if they’re going to lose. Can he prosecute his case against Fetterman without turning off more voters?
The world will be watching to find out all of those answers and many more as Senate control in 2023 likely hangs in the balance.
MURPHY: I’m “on assignment” today so I’ll be quick. I think old von Gibbs is right; in these two races the old-school “vital debate” is back. First, these debates will get real viewership, not just a highlights clip on the local news. (Hell, I’m going to watch at the least the GA debate from way out here in California.) Second, both races are very close and at this moment voters have growing doubts about two of the candidates, Walker in Georgia and Fetterman in Pennsylvania. (They’ve had doubts about Oz for a while, but the good Doc is catching up as Fetterman struggles with the inevitable second look at his lefty record in a tilt GOP year.) So these debates offer both opportunity and risk. Hershel Walker originally had done a world-class job of lowering expectations for the looming Georgia debate, but his latest “I’m bringing down the abortion industry from the inside” scandal has put a new hot spotlight on the GOP wonder candidate (I wouldn’t be surprised if halfway through the debate the lighting guy walks up to Hershel and says, “… Dad?”). He’ll have some real explaining to do under the unforgiving eye of the debate camera. Still, nobody in the history of Big Statewide Debates walks into this contest with lower expectations than Hershel Walker, so… we’ll see.
In Pennsylvania, the debate will be a chance for Fetterman to put the health issue to rest and for Oz to try to steer the race away from himself and Trump and back to ideology and the kitchen table issues of inflation and the economy. (Plus, he’ll have to face and try to defuse the Puppy Killer problem that looms over him like a hind leg over a fire hydrant.) Still this is another Expectations Moment: Oz made a living pre-campaign on TV and Fetterman’s primary debate performance was rocky, so if Doc Oz is ever going to have a comeback/restart moment… this will be it. On the other hand, if the Fetterman campaign can sell the stroke recovery narrative right – so far they’ve been a bit clumsy on it – he could wind up with much of the state rooting for him. So have no doubt, both of these TV spectaculars are indeed, classic Vital Debates.
One final plug/tidbit: We may have to add Utah to our list of Big Senate races. Brand new polling for the pro-Evan McMullin superPAC Put Utah First, shows Independent candidate McMullin has pulled into a four-point lead over incumbent Mike Lee. This is a real race now, tight and hard fought. If McMullin prevails it will be an amazing upset and a real “enough” message to both parties in DC. You can read the polling here.
See you next week!
Murphy and Gibbs