The Politics of Trump’s Attempted Coup
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, the January 6th hearings continue to reveal shocking (but not so shocking) revelations about the awful realities of the Orange Menace, but will he face any consequences? If this week’s primaries say anything, the answer is probably no. That’s where we begin before turning to the politics of the economy and the latest primaries, plus some tidbits.
Let’s begin!
TRUMP TRIED TO DESTROY OUR DEMOCRACY, BUT WILL IT MATTER?
The scene from the hearing yesterday; CREDIT: Drew Angerer / Getty Images News
MURPHY: The hearings grind along and I think the story really hasn’t changed: clear facts, horrible acts and I continue to think Trump has had his frame bent and his trajectory toward 2024 is in decline. Only time will tell, but I think real damage has been done “under the waterline” to Trump inside the GOP. The midterms however, are still – as they were always going to be – about meat and potato (literally) economic issues and that continues to be awful news for the Democrats. I don’t see any big changes from the hearings, just more of the bad same for Donald Trump. There is still the issue of any prosecution of Trump off the findings of the committee. We will see, but I do sure see the outlines of a strong case emerging. I guess the final sidebar issue left is the hope many had that her impressive and patriotic performance during the hearings would somehow save Liz Cheney in her grim GOP reelection primary. It’s an open primary and Dems and I’s can vote for her (as they materially did for GA Sec of State Raffensperger), but the polling to date of Wyoming primary voters has been bleak. I doubt that will change. I think she may finish a bit better than CW currently suggests, but we now have plenty evidence (more on this below in the wake of the SC results Tuesday) that while careful Trump critics with strong conservative bona-fides can survive criticizing Trump and beat primary challengers the Orange Menace strongly supports, if you actually voted to impeach Trump (right along with Team Pelosi in the myopic vision of the GOP tribe) your goose is cooked. I’m sad to say I don’t see that changing for Rep. Cheney.
GIBBS: Mike, it’s hard to disagree with any of that analysis. The hearings have been really, really striking. Even though we knew (or thought we knew) a lot of what happened that tragic day in Washington, hearing from those in the room and on the staff of the President and Vice President guide us through these events in their own words really leaves an impression of just how coordinated this all was and just how closely we came to a genuine Constitutional crisis. While many in the GOP are still afraid of crossing Trump publicly, I’d have to think they see all of this as a painful reminder of just how damaging and debilitating Trump can be to the GOP. Sure seems to me that there are candidates and leaders with far less baggage out there for 2024 to lead the Grand Old Party, but someone still has to actually beat him for the nomination. Whispers are a lot easier than wins. One thing that’s really hard to get over from yesterday was after all the searing discussion with the lawyers and the pressure on the Vice President, was hearing about how the legal instigator John Eastman, a highly educated lawyer, emails Rudy writing “I’ve decided that I should be on the pardon list, if that is still in the works.” This man clerked for a federal judge. He clearly knows today and knew clearly then the laws of this country. And he also knew, he’d broken those laws. Sure hope these hearing are on inside the office of the Justice Department. Kudos again to the Committee for the case they’re putting together.
IT’S STILL THE ECONOMY, STUPID
MURPHY: Joe Biden is really stuck. Inflation is now a wildfire – punching voters hard every week at the grocery checkout line and sending them reeling toward even more pain at the gas pump – and not only does every action the White House take fail to get Biden any political relief, the growing narrative of weakness is making Biden’s political situation even worse. Now I know a lot of this is unfair; war in Ukraine, supply problems and the like are all complex and sticky problems that no POTUS can instantly fix. But the buck stops at the top. That’s the President’s reality. I also cannot totally buy into the “it is isn’t Joe Biden’s fault” narrative the Democrats apparently hope will somehow seize the national imagination. Biden made a dire strategic mistake with the whole “grab the new history books, we’re writing FDR 2.0” blunder launch to his Presidency. As many of you heard me howl on Hacks on Tap, big spending (be it COVID relief or huge domestic “investment”) is inflationary. Now the Dem line at the time was “transitory inflation” but that convenient get out of economic jail card turned out to be – as fiscal conservatives predicted at the time – as phony as Monopoly money. Even as solid a Democratic policy wizard as former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers tried to sound a warning, but the spending mob was already storming the castle. Now, the perfect storm, supply chain transitory inflation, huge deficit inflation, the works inflation. And it is likely to cost the Democrats both the House and, though less certainly, the Senate. The Biden White House’s epic, losing battle with coherent domestic messaging has roared on for months and months as well, making a tough situation even worse. So, it is the economy stupid and it’s breaking the Democratic party politically just in time for November 2022.
GIBBS: Carville was right then and that statement is right today. Yes, the above hearings have been a well-documented trail of trying to overturn the election, but it’s hard to compete with $5 and $6 gas prices, rising food prices and a stock market shedding trillions in retirement savings. I’ve been struck by how many more news items on this are coming out from the White House that can’t seem to gain all that much traction and how many of those items suggest “the White House is thinking about” doing this or that. The reality is their tools here are very limited and in fairness, there isn’t a magic wand in the President’s desk to fix a global economy out of whack from all that’s been thrown at it for the past two and a half years. In many ways, this is where we are economically and politically and it’s going to take some time to fix it back to normal. I’ve been in that building during economic times like this back in 2009 and 2010 and, let’s just say, it’s not fun!
TIDBITS:
TRUMP’S PRIMARY WINS CONTINUE…
MURPHY: So, Tuesday featured two big GOP Congressional primaries in SC. In SC-1 (Charleston and the southeastern coast) Rep. Nancy Mace fought off a Trump supported challenger Katie Arrington by 10 points. This race has a good dollop of appropriately Southern Gothic backstory. Mace, the first woman to graduate from the Citadel, was a Trump critic (though she did NOT vote for impeachment) who attached primary opposition from the same Trumpy minion who beat former Rep. Mark Sanford in 2018, only to lose the seat to a Democrat. That Democrat was in turn defeated by Mace in 2020. In this primary, Mace prevailed by scuttling from Trump criticism to praise and, Brian Kemp style, assiduously protecting her right flank. Arrington, her opponent, was also a clumsy candidate, with a spotty record at the DOD during the Trump administration. A bit north along the SC coast in the 7th district, hero Republican Tom Rice – a popular conservative who did vote to impeach Trump – got slaughtered 2-1 in his primary against a Trump endorsed challenger. While some sparse primary polling showed Rice in a tighter race, it was not to be. A vote to impeach Donald Trump, as noted above, is still a scarlet letter in today’s GOP. As we’ve mentioned before, while a growing plurality of the GOP base may be becoming more and more ready to move beyond Donald Trump, a direct attack upon him like impeachment is still a non-starter with 75% of the party.
GIBBS: It was a tale of two races indeed. Mace, after her criticism of Trump, did go to New York to film a video in front of Trump Tower reminding her constituents that she was for many of his conservative policies, while Rice ran a very different race. The line to cross was impeachment. As you said above Murphy, I think this is the same fate waiting for Liz Cheney in Wyoming. One thing that shouldn’t also be lost here in the analysis of these two races is the political geography of these districts. Mace’s district is a much different place and a bit more balanced even in deeply red South Carolina, with that area attracting people moving there from all over the country, which is why just two years ago it was represented by Joe Cunningham, who on Tuesday won his primary to be the Democratic nominee for Governor in November. The region Rice represented is much deeper red.
PA CALLING:
MURPHY: It’s early and it’s one poll, but glum Democrats are probably taking some happiness from a new USA Today/Suffolk Univ poll showing Democratic candidate and Lt Gov John “Who Needs Medical Details in the Press” Fetterman with a 9-point lead over Mehmet “Doc 1-800-MIRACLE VITAMINS” Oz. We need more campaigning and more polling, but it is a ray of good news for Democratic hopes in the Senate. The same poll showed Dem AG Josh Shapiro only 4 points ahead of GOP wackobird Doug Mastriano in the gubernatorial race. That is a more troubling indicator. Interestingly Shapiro ran a ton of TV in the primary to help Mastriano win the Republican primary on the theory that Mastriano would be easy to beat. Maybe so, but as the saying goes, “you break it, you own it.” Stay tuned…
GIBBS: I have been waiting for some polling in this race and it didn’t disappoint! I don’t just mean about who’s in the lead, but how they’re in the lead. Democrats watching this race have sold Fetterman as someone who can take some votes away from Republicans in marginal territory for Democrats and this poll looks to confirm that possibility. The strength of the Oz candidacy probably helps here, but remember it is very, very early. But, Pennsylvania looks like it will be everything we thought it would be and more this November.
Have a great weekend everyone!
Murphy and Gibbs