The Politics of the New Battle Over Abortion
Hello Hackaroos,
The SCOTUS announced their Roe decision just as we published on Friday, so we decided to wait until today to dive into the politics of this huge decision. So here goes, plus a few political tidbits.
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Let’s begin!
IT’S TIME FOR DEMOCRATS TO ACTUALLY DO SOMETHING!
The Scene Outside the Supreme Court on Friday; Source: Brandon Bell / Getty Images News
MURPHY: This is a true political earthquake and as Hacks Grande, we will dive into the campaign politics of the Roe decision. There is no doubt that this moment is very big inside each party. The GOP is worried, they’d rather talk about the cost of gasoline and groceries since, while a minority, the Republican Party does have a pro-choice wing and this puts those GOP pols in a very uncomfortable position. On the Democratic side, it’s now a monolithically pro-choice party so there is now an opening for various Democratic leaders – including the not small number who are busy memorizing road maps of NH as they wait to see what Joe Biden does about 2024 – to try to grab the mantle of leadership in the now raging war over abortion rights. Gibbs, how do you see it all playing out at the WH level and inside the Democratic Party?
GIBBS: Well, this is a very big moment for the Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi and, as always, the most pressure lands on the White House right now. Democrat and California Governor (who seems to be a less subtle 2024 hopeful by the day) Gavin Newsom understands the opening that this creates for him. He’s ramped up his criticism of Dem Party leaders as failing to adequately confront Republicans and the state legislature cleared a ballot measure for this November to enshrine abortion rights into the state Constitution. Unless the Democratic leadership of Washington, DC steps up to respond to what a lot of Democrats feel is an enormous political shift and a crisis greatly impacting the lives of millions of Americans, there will be more like Newsom, who also understands the battleground here has shifted to the states and away from Congress. Elizabeth Warren and AOC were out prominently on Friday and over the weekend calling for more to be done. This could be just the beginning. Democrats want answers from Biden and the Democratic Congressional leadership on exactly what are the next steps planned here, especially since this outcome had been foreshadowed for weeks. The answer simply can't be, this shows you how important this election is or please exercise your right and show up to vote in November. That will ring hollow for millions wondering how this happened after they showed up and now no one has a good plan that they’ve articulated about what voting will bring. This White House has faced an almost daily barrage of crises since taking over from Trump, but none feels bigger than this right now politically. Remember, this is also happening as a number of stories have popped up around whether Biden will or should run for re-election.
MURPHY: It’s true, strongly pro-choice voters want to do something and do it now. They want a fight and if other leaders, like Gov Newsom, take the lead it creates a risk for the White House that President Biden will seem further diminished and that’s bad mojo for the embattled POTUS. I think Democratic Senate leaders should start some fights pronto to give their grassroots troops a cause to enlist in and add weight to the 2022 Senate races. I don’t know if it’s codifying other potentially at risk rights like same-sex marriage, another run at the filibuster, and even talk about a Senate impeachment of Clarence Thomas because of his wife Ginni’s inexcusable behavior trying to subvert our democracy. The Democrats need wedge issues for the Senate campaign to try to race into abortion rights territory in several key states and soon. The usual Schumer talk a little and move on strategy is not enough this time.
GIBBS: Yeah, this is going to require some intellectual energy from leadership and they're going to have to enumerate very clearly what they're looking to accomplish and how they're looking to accomplish it because, after all, there’s not an election for the Supreme Court. The action needs to come from those who we actually can hold accountable and it can’t wait until next year. Speaker Pelosi, recognizing this, put out a list of proposals late yesterday.
As you said, Murphy, the Senate and House should start voting and getting people on the record. I would start by voting on contraception next week. If Clarence Thomas wants to decide whether contraception is legal and thinks that it can be outlawed then, great, let's have a vote on it. But, don’t stop there. Let’s vote on gay marriage. Let’s vote on interracial marriage. Plus, some concrete plans on abortion pills and ensuring citizens have the ability to travel to another state for medical care all seem like good places to start. Democrats want to see and hear action from their leaders. They don’t want to just go give more money or sign up to knock on doors. They’re rightly scared about the last week at the Supreme Court (with a major environmental decision also set to come down). And, thus far, the response has been seen as tepid.
Republicans have a different challenge because after a nearly 50-year fight, the dog caught the car and you're at the classic, okay, now what, stage. Each Republican is going to have to answer very specific questions about how they view what their state law should now be for abortion. Do they favor exception for rape, incest and health of the mother? Will women be prosecuted? If a woman loses her baby, will she have to carry it to term. Smart Democratic campaigns will ensure these questions get asked and the answers that are given are amplified for all to hear. Keep in mind, polling suggests only 30-40% of America agrees with this decision by the Court. I also think smart Democratic campaigns will fit this all into a larger messaging effort around either Republicans not caring about sharing your values and being too extreme. It will be part of a larger narrative to show voters what this Republican Party stands for and what you’ll get if they win in November. It doesn't wipe away inflation, but it definitely makes the race over the next few months quite a bit different.
MURPHY: I think one big political motor that will start to play out going forward is the American voter is not used to a Supreme Court that is now taking perceived rights away, telling people what they cannot do. That’s going to be a bumpy ride for the Court and you will hear a lot more talk about “reforming” the Court going forward. I think Chief Justice Roberts was very worried about the Court’s standing with the American people if they got into the Elders from Footloose business and overturned Roe. He was right. A second big element that we are not talking about now, but will hear more about as this debate continues is how hard it is control private behavior in this digital age. 52% of abortions are performed by drug in the US (much higher in Europe) and the ability of people to go online for telemedicine help from medical professionals and then have abortion pills shipped to them by mail will be extremely difficult for the authorities in abortion outlawing states to really stop. In a battle between those law enforcement organs (who I’m sure are really happy about now having to enforce these laws, particularly in more metropolitan areas, say Dallas and Houston) and that quaint little thing called the Internet… my money is on the web.
A final big Hack question is how will the Roe decision play in the big Senate races? Here are some numbers from a Pew study on attitudes around abortion laws. These states in particular show fairly strong support for abortion rights. Below we list the percentages of people saying abortion should be legal in most/all cases versus abortion should be illegal in most/all cases:
Source: Pew Research Center
GIBBS: Interesting (and quaint) that you’re still referring to John Roberts as the Chief Justice. Mike, Samuel Alito would like a word…
I will add a few to that.
Source: Pew Research Center
All of these states, except Virginia and North Carolina also have Governor’s races this Fall, which will be big in what happens next on abortion. Govs Whitmer (MI), Sisolak (NV) and Evers (WI) can look at these numbers and feel like this is a potent issue against an opponent, especially one that’s being pushed by the pro-life grassroots to say and do really harsh things. And while I’d love to believe the we can now finally do something about the filibuster and codify Roe nationally as the law of the land, the states will be the place this plays out for the foreseeable future.
MURPHY: The big story here is Nevada where the Democratic incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Mastro has been running well under 50% in polls and is seen as the single most vulnerable Dem Senate incumbent. She now has a powerful tool to reset the race. Marco Rubio’s life in Florida also has become more challenging.
TIDBITS
MURPHY: It’s an old political trick to try to give an assist to the weakest candidate in the other side’s primary to try to help your own chances, but this year in Illinois and Pennsylvania it’s reached grotesque levels. We’ve discussed the PA Governor’s race regarding this before so today I want to focus on the even worse example in Illinois where megabucks Governor J.B. Pritzker has spent about a zillion dollars trying to help southern Illinois successionist/GOP wingnut Darren Bailey win today’s GOP primary against mainstream Republican candidate Richard Irvin (Mayor of Aurora, Illinois’ second largest city.). Here’s the problem, when a guy like Pritzker spends a campaign warping amount a money to elevate and nominate an unserious candidate like Bailey, he in effect removes the voter’s right to a decent choice in November. Bailey is a such a crank he is not a serious choice for any reasonable voter. It’s a form of election fixing and it’s totally wrong. Normally you have to go to a corrupt Putin style failed state to find this kind of cynical maneuver. Yes, it’s true that Mayor Irving has his own mega-bucks donor. But save that moneybags battle for the general election where the two serious candidates can face off. Instead, it’s very likely the unserious loon Bailey will be propelled to a primary win today almost totally by Pritzker’s tens of millions and the race for Illinois Governor will end without the general election voters of Illinois every having any real say or serious choice in the matter. A very piggish and shameful voter disenfranchisement move by Governor Pritzker, who should know better.
GIBBS: Money and politics, Murphy… so since there’s apparently no such thing as precedent at the Court anymore, maybe we should revisit Citizens United
Also, keep an eye out on today’s primary battles. Among the races we are watching closely are the GOP primary in Colorado, who ends up as the GOP Gov nominee in Illinois, as Murphy mentions, plus two Congressional primaries there pitting incumbents against each other, runoffs in Mississippi, the NY Dem Gov primary and Utah’s Senator Mike Lee. More Friday on these battles.
MURPHY: To end on a lighter note, we wanted to leave you with a hilarious story from the Brit tabloids about a Tory candidate, Helen Hurford, who locked herself in a room and refused to speak to the media to face her defeat. Every losing candidate on election night knows the feeling.
We’ll see you on Friday!
Murphy and Gibbs