The Politics of Polling Continues…
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, with six weeks to go until Election Day and even more attention on the horse race, the debate we discussed a couple weeks ago continues over just how accurate all these polls are in measuring what voters actually think. We give our take on the latest polling dilemma then weigh in on Senate politics and some tidbits.
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Let’s begin!
Dancing (Again) Around the Polls
GIBBS: We sounded the alarm weeks ago in our debate over polling and Politico chimes in with an article well worth your time if you’re interested in this stuff quoting a good number of pollsters worried about the challenges of getting the right samples into the mix for their product. And, well, like a lot of other things, the root of the problem is Trump! Ok, I overdid that a tad in jest, but the main challenge again seems to be an under sampling of Trump voters primarily because they can be harder to reach and refuse to participate in polls. It also documents what certain polling practitioners are doing to try to find and reach more Trump voters, particularly through text, the internet or cell phones. While some are less concerned because Trump isn’t on the ballot in 2022, others have felt his presence in the news cycle since the FBI came knocking at Mar-a-Lago has also made it harder to find enough Trump voters to ensure the electorate doesn’t undercount their support. Again, it’s worth your time. It’s also worth remembering our checklist of sorts to take polling with a grain (or three) of salt. Polling undoubtedly has gotten harder (read: more expensive) to conduct. Look around and that’s obvious. Many of us don’t have an old landline phone in our house, the very lifeblood of a pollster to use to reach a good sample of voters in a given voter universe. So, they text where they legally can, or use ads off the internet to entice participation or call cell phones where permissible. That effort while it sounds straightforward, isn’t always easy. The cost of doing all of this means some polling sponsors are having to contemplate spending more to conduct the poll and deciding not to spend the extra money. What results is often a product that just isn’t as trustworthy as you might hope. One topic worth tackling here is the idea of bias, which I find somewhat laughable frankly. When I see a poll from Pennsylvania, a very reliable swing state for a long time, with a 15 or 20-point Fetterman lead, the first thing I do is laugh. The next thing I do is worry that Fetterman donors and voters will get complacent thinking that despite six weeks to go it’s already in the bag. Pennsylvania is a challenging state for both parties. As we have said here before, I expect this race to be fairly close when it’s all said and done. Every campaign I’ve worked in wants a public poll to show the race close enough on either side to let their supporters know they have to work that much harder in the time left to make sure the outcome they want happens on Election Day. Take it from us Hacks, we will only share polls we can trust, but we’ve warned they’re only a measure of a moment in time. And understand, that moment in time is in the rearview mirror by the time you see the poll!
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MURPHY: Well Gibbsie, the Fetterman race is tightening up… there is a new poll showing a 5 point margin, with Doc Oz apparently taking his own mail order Magic Vitamins and picking up steam. It’s either that or his seemingly effective attacks on Fetterman on the crime issue. Per polling, I agree that it is harder than ever for pollsters to crack the code of getting a random sample that really catches everybody who intends to vote. And we are in such tribal times that even polling science has been somewhat weaponized out in the culture, with populist voters on both sides not trusting polls and being harder to interview properly. Plus we are busy people and polling means spending time on the phone or online answering questions about a boring and depressing topic for many people. Still, polling provides useful information. I’d just recommend to any political junkie obsessing over polls in the media to, well… stop. Partisans on both sides like to use polling as a sort of therapy animal… trying to find good news that predicts an electoral future that makes them feel good. The worst use of polling is to obsess on the ballot or “horserace” question and try to predict the future. Good polling takes you inside the minds of voters, but predicting their ultimate behavior is tricky. Campaign pros use polling to move movers, to try to push them to a desired outcome. The numbers are there… to be moved. Reading a poll and thinking – as in a sports contest – we are going to win! I’m happy to today… only to see a “bad” poll a few days later and decide your side is going to lose and all is lost. Wait for Election Day. And hint, you are three points behind. So go to work for your side.
McConnell’s Dirty Tricks
MURPHY: McConnell isn’t taking any chances with the polls either – going so far as praising a certain Democratic Senator who holds the keys to Biden’s agenda. I don’t know about you Gibbsie, but I do enjoy a love story like this.
GIBBS: Ohhhh, boy. Seems Senator Sinema has taken the Manchin eye poking strategy to a whole new level! I am just not so sure what the long-term strategy is here. Some might believe she’s going to change parties and run for re-election in 2024 as a Republican. Good luck with that! She’s pro-choice and voted twice to convict Donald Trump in impeachment trials. I also can’t imagine Democrats are very amused at this either. Building relationships across the aisle is one thing and, honestly, is necessary to get things done in today’s U.S. Senate. But traveling to Kentucky and lavishing praise of McConnell isn’t likely to go over too well in the hearts of most Dem voters. Remember the one big difference between Arizona and West Virginia. Arizona is now a very purple state that’s very closely divided between Dems and GOPers. West Virginia is the most solidly GOP state in the US, according to the Presidential vote in 2020, where Joe Biden failed to reach 30%.
@hacksontapnewsletter: Murphy believes Sen. Kyrsten Sinema truly wants to use the filibuster for good, like that Mr. Smith who went to Washington.
MURPHY: Gibbs you cynic! I’m shocked, shocked. Seriously, I think the media and the Bloviating Industry in general is making a mistake to only see political calculation in Sinema’s actions. When in doubt, take somebody at their word when they do unusual things. Sen. Sinema talks a lot about bipartisanship and I think she means it. (Granted, she is now is a long and winding road from where she started as a fire-breathing progressive.) When she argues that the filibuster is good because it forces compromise… well, that is actually true. The problem is the tribal maniacs in both parties show very little interest in compromise, so the system has broken down. But I think she means what she says and acts accordingly. And as a conservative, well, I’m not unhappy. The big question for her though, is how will Arizona’s Democratic primary voters take all this. That could be a much heavier lift.
TIDBITS:
GIBBS: Sit down for this one. Talking to our good friend David Axelrod on Saturday and he reminded me of something I’d forgotten or maybe suppressed into the deepest recesses of my brain: we may not know who controls the Senate on Election Night because we might have a winner in the Georgia Senate race until early December. If no candidate gets 50% of the vote, the Georgia law says there is to be a runoff between the top 2 vote getters. Currently, Libertarian Chase Oliver and another candidate are on the ballot along with incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock and challenger Herschel Walker. And while the Legislature shortened the runoff period from early January to December 6th this year, it still could mean 4 more weeks of campaigning and a whole lot more money spent again in Georgia to decide Senate control. On the bright side, at least your crazy uncle won’t have bragging rights yet at Thanksgiving dinner!
Source: FiveThirtyEight.com
MURPHY: You are right, and oh Lordy that’ll be fun. And there is a solid chance it will happen. And it’s not the only potential Big Surprise. Call me Kreskin, but it looks there are several global developments out there which could shake up the midterms in a big way: Hurricane Ian, Russia on the brink, Iranian protestors on the street, a new potentially wacky Italian Prime Minister (ok, that’s not so unusual) and a growing chill with China. We’ll be following all of it here.
We’ll be back on Friday with our take on the latest January 6th hearing. See you then!
Murphy and Gibbs