The Politics of Biden’s Two-Front Fight In Ukraine
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, after Zelensky’s powerful virtual visit to Congress this week, it’s becoming increasingly clear (if it wasn’t already) that President Biden is going to continue to be pushed to do more and more in Ukraine – whether he likes it or not. What will that mean politically? That’s where we begin before turning to another round of polling analysis plus tidbits on Trump’s waning MAGA effect.
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Let’s begin…
THE POLITICS OF THE ZELENSKY EFFECT CONTINUES…
GIBBS: The newest political and foreign policy challenge for President Biden is he's fighting a two-front battle in his response to Ukraine. Usually, Presidents have great latitude in conducting their foreign policy without a ton of oversight from the peanut gallery (also known in this example as Congress). But, that’s not the case here. First, he's getting pushed by Zelensky, who’s using social media and virtual appearances brilliantly while leading the effort to repel the Russians from Ukraine. Additionally, Congress is very much in on the act, too, pushing for more weapons, more money and more of a role in how the American effort here is waged. It’s already been tricky for President Biden. It happened very clearly this week when Zelensky spoke virtually and two hours later, after having leaked a bunch of it the night before, Biden speaks and provides more assistance. It shows that even as he's doing all that he is (and almost all of it correctly), he's still being pushed. No matter who you are, this element makes the role even harder. The White House and the Administration don't have the luxury of a clear and clean space with which to make their decisions.
MURPHY: Astute analysis, Gibbsie. Zelensky’s job is to push because his country is on fire. So he’s going to push and he’s very good at it. Even in our bitterly divided political landscape the whole country is now behind Ukraine’s valiant fight (other than a few kooks in the GOP and the odd rodeo clown on Fox). The bottom line is the Z push worked: the congressional drumbeat to give Ukraine the Polish MiGs, and even more importantly more anti-air weapons and killer drones, is becoming louder. The Biden people can feel this and I thought they rather adroitly jumped into the news stream on this with an announcement that they’re upping the arms shipments, including killer “Switchblade 600” (who names this stuff?) drones and other equipment, that will make a real difference maker on the battlefield. Biden is also trying to work a deal with Slovakia and other former Warsaw Pact nations to give their Soviet made anti-aircraft systems (which the Ukrainians know how to effectively use right away) with Zelensky’s forces. Politically, what I think Biden really needs is a good made-for-TV general of the Stormin’ Norman Schwartzkopf variety to fill cable news with updates on everything we are doing to help the Ukraine with materials and support. The tougher the administration reads to the American people (and to Putin) without falling into a crazy escalation, the better.
GIBBS: We're all as a world invested in the outcome of this, but Biden’s investment also has a political dynamic, which is tremendously important to him. He's gotten a bump in some of the polling around Ukraine because of how he's handled this situation. Starting with the State of the Union speech, he had prime time on TV to make not just the U.S. case for helping Ukraine but HIS case for leadership in a dangerous world. But, if in three weeks or a month, the worst happens in Ukraine and the capital falls, and the Russians control it, he may find himself not only from a foreign policy perspective, but also from a political perspective, back at square one, meaning a lot of people in the country are unhappy with the outcome and with him. Folks, let me tell you, the job ain’t easy.
I will say, the next big domino here is to watch the readout from today’s call between Biden and President Xi of China. It's a fascinating chapter in this book, and it is important not just for our posture vis-à-vis China, but what role China is going to play going forward with Russia.
MURPHY: There is a good story in the NYT about President’s Xi’s own increasing political troubles in China. His plan to inch back from capitalism isn’t playing well. Biden has a moment of leverage. Let’s hope he uses it well to curb the PRC pro-Russian chicanery.
WHAT TO MAKE OF BIDEN’S NUMBERS?
GIBBS: Readers last week will be familiar with my analysis of what we were seeing in terms of the post-State of the Union polls and the six polls that showed Biden actually getting stronger politically. The challenge was Friday morning the Wall Street Journal poll landed right in the middle of that analysis and showed things were not so hot. And given the poll was done by our friends John Anzalone, President Biden’s pollster, and Tony Fabrizio, who polled for Trump, it’s not fake news for Biden. The Real Clear Politics average showed that his approval number actually did get better for a week or so, but now it’s started getting worse again. The overall numbers aren’t great, but when you really pull back the curtain and look inside the poll, the news is mostly grim, as Murphy will tell you. I had hoped Ukraine and the State of the Union represented a turning point, but it appears it was a short blip.
MURPHY: Yeah, he got a bump of the SOTU, but it was a small bump that even a shoddily maintained seventies-era lemon of a Russian tank could crawl over. It’s the internals of that poll that should be very scary for the Democrats. They show Biden with two big problems. The top issue is the economy and inflation and the American people don’t think Biden is on top of it:
Approve or disapprove of job Joe Biden is doing on handling the economy:
Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 59%
Between the Democratic party and the Republican party, who in your opinion is Best Able to rebuild the economy:
Democratic Party: 34%
Republican Party: 47%
Yikes. The get inflation under control numbers are even worse for the President.
Finally, Biden’s old perception problem of weakness (thanks AOC and the Squad; nice job holding his entire domestic agenda hostage…)
Approve of disapprove of job Joe Biden is doing of “being a strong leader”:
Approve: 41%
Disapprove: 57%.
That’s why the Ukraine crisis is so politically important for Joe Biden. Handled well, it gives him a path to move that vital number.
TIDBITS:
GIBBS: On the subject of weak wannabe strong men leaders, what’s going on with Trump these days? After a big bear hug of Vladimir Putin, speaking lovingly of the autocrat’s strategic genius, Trump opined that his Senate candidate in Alabama wasn't performing up to the Dear Leader’s expectations. And now he's dangling walking away from Mo Brooks, who had a comfortable seat at the rally right before the insurrection on January 6. SAD!
MURPHY: Wow, I never thought of Alabama as a Shakespearian wonderland, but this whole caper with Brooks reminds me of the fate of former Sen. Jeff Sessions. Huge Trump booster and early supporter one minute, vilified enemy of the MAGA not too long after. It should be clear to these Trump loving pols that with the Orange Menace it’s always a Faustian deal. Putin’s pet coral snake Igor has warmer blood and more loyalty. Still, #JustDesserts.
GIBBS: My response: red on black, friend of Jack, red on yellow, kill a fellow. How do you tell the difference between a harmless king snake and a perilously dangerous neurotoxic coral snake? Learned that at summer camp as a kid and have never forgotten it!
MURPHY: Finally, a hats off to my old boss Arnold Schwarzenegger on his brilliant message to the people of Russia. If you have not seen this, it is a powerful must watch:
ONE LAST THING: Bet you almost forgot about this…the confirmation hearings begin next week for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson’s nomination to the Supreme Court.
On that note, have a great weekend and beware of red on yellow!
Murphy and Gibbs