The Murdochs’ Message to the MAGA World
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, for all you close readers out there, in our Friday issue, you might have noticed that the excitement around primary day next week got the better of us. (Plus, we are often drunk when we write this; it is Hacks on Tap – MM). The good news for you is that we've already given you a preview for what's going to happen a week from today rather than what's actually going to happen today. So plenty to impress your friends with at your summer happy hours!
Now to what’s actually happening this week…
The Orange Menace might be hitting the unsubscribe button to his favorite Murdoch-run papers after some tough editorials on his January 6th dereliction of duties. We start there and what it actually means for Trump and the GOP. Then we turn to the politics of this week’s big economic data dump for President Biden (including the disappointing consumer confidence numbers just out this morning). Plus, more spicy tea from Murphy on the Tory leadership race and some tidbits.
Let’s begin…
Did Trump Get The Murdoch Memo?
GIBBS: So, ICYMI, on Friday, after the January 6th Committee’s hearing showing all that Trump didn’t do to quell the riot at the U.S. Capitol, within minutes of each other, the New York Post (owned by the Murdochs, who also own Fox News) and the Wall Street Journal (also owned by the Murdochs, who also own Fox News) both laid out editorials in their respective newspapers hitting Donald Trump, including the New York Post saying he “has proven himself unworthy to be this country’s chief executive again.” Rep. Liz Cheney pretty perfectly captures it here on Fox News Sunday to make sure any and all Fox viewers also got the memo. No, it isn’t the crown jewel of the Murdoch empire, Fox News, delivering the message. It’s a far cry from Hannity or Tucker saying this, for sure. But, we know Trump pays attention to the New York Post. Murphy, I’m interested in your wisdom here because you are a closer watcher of these two editorial boards than I as a Democrat normally would be, but it doesn't seem to be a subtle message to Trump that the times, they are a-changin’
MURPHY: This is happening all over the GOP Star Chamber (as predicted here and on the podcast by Yours Truly for months). Over the last year, Trump has looked weaker and weaker… babbling on about stolen elections that were not stolen and aligning his entire political strategy to crackpot revenge strategies. The Star Chamber has watched all this and evolved from “Trump has a huge base, you cannot fight him in the party, and he may be able to beat Biden” to “This crazy monkey has outlived his limited usefulness. He cannot carry an effective message anymore and we would have to be nuts to nominate the one slow pony even Biden can beat.” Now this doesn’t mean Trump is totally over with the GOP grassroots, you can look at plenty of primary results and see he still has pull. But Superman is limping and bleeding now, so the other big cats in the GOP jungle are beginning to stalk him, led by Florida Republi-panther Ron DeSantis. The Jan. 6 committee, which thanks to Cheney and Kinzinger and the brave GOP staff who testified, has – no matter what Fox News will tell you – greatly accelerated this process.
GIBBS: This totally gets at the debate you and I have had for months about the strength of Donald Trump in the GOP. Now I still think, if you had to bet $100 today on who would be the nominee, you'd still be smarter to bet on Trump than not Trump, but it is clear that he's going to go into the next election not in the political position he may have thought he was. Where are you on that bet today, Murphy?
MURPHY: I’ll take it Gibbsie, but I want 2-1 odds. (Six month ago I could have got 5 to 1 odds).
Are We In A Recession?
GIBBS: So, if you are an economic data nerd, then this week is your Lollapalooza (not withstanding it actually being Lollapalooza in Chicago this week). And, for us Hacks, if you want to know how this data may impact our politics, it's also an interesting week. Today, we got updated consumer confidence numbers (which fell for a third straight month), and the Federal Reserve Board begins its July meeting, which will conclude tomorrow with a decision about the extent to which it is going to raise interest rates, followed by a press conference by Chairman Powell. Thursday we get the first look at Q2’s Tuesday GDP numbers, which are important because if the economy is contracting, it would meet the technical definition of a recession. Despite continued extraordinarily strong job growth and historic inflation, consumers are still spending a lot of money. But there's going to be a long lead up to this question: are we in a recession? That means there'll be a lot of discussion about whether we are in a recession before Friday, when we get some more inflation data. So needless to say, this is going to be one of those weeks where a President who is already suffering low approval ratings for how he's handling the economy and inflation is likely to be met with an awful lot of chatter around what's going on in the macro-economic world. It’s something for the Administration to navigate, even as gas prices continue to decline. All of these stats will be important scene setters as we progress into the last 100 or so days until the election. Murphy, what say you?
MURPHY: Inflation is obviously real, and bad, and a political nightmare for the Ds. But will it trigger a recession (probably yes in my view) but the bigger question is how deep and painful a recession? That, is the question and I’ve learned that even economists are horrible at predicting the future (especially about the economy.) The counter argument to recession bears is by many measures the economy is strong, consumer balance sheets are reasonably robust and unemployment is low. So perhaps the recession will be mild. But… there is a solid and scary chance our over-leveraged (world) economy (such over-leverage and the asset bubble that comes along with it, is the scary monster of freakishly low interest rates) will be unleveraged fast and that could be very very very painful.
Murphy’s Tory Corner
MURPHY: So the Tory MPs voted and more or less as expected, Rishi Sunak stayed in front and finished first with around a third of the vote. Liz Truss, also as expected, zoomed into second place. So now the two of them will face the 180-200K card carrying membership of the Conservative party in a primary (of sorts) which will pick a new PM in early September. Two observations and a BIG ANNOUNCEMENT hint.
First, party members can vote online or by mail. (Look out for a huge upset win by Vladimir Putin if too many members vote online. Just saying…). CW over in Blighty holds that since the mail ballots start arriving this week, it is the key week since squared away rank and file Tories will vote immediately. I’m not so sure. While that has been the past pattern in the U.K., I’ve found in U.S. vote by mail races, many people hold their ballots till near the end; they want to see the whole show.
Second, in the U.K. party vote, you can change your ballot. Yup, you can change it online so if something big happens, well, something even bigger can happen. (This new rule is controversial.) Polls (which are tricky in a contest like this) show Liz Truss way ahead. But maybe Sunak can draw blood and make it interesting. Of course the blood fest loving media would greatly enjoy that, so Sunak’s oppo peddlers are probably doing a thriving business.
Finally, check out today’s episode of the Hacks on Tap podcast (out tonight). We are making a HUGE WORLD ANNOUNCEMENT about the Tory race, certain to make headlines both here and in the U.K. (OK, maybe not certain to make headlines, but it might and it’s fun and a SHOCKER! Really! It’ll be at the end of the episode in a Last Call segment from me. Plus Axelrod and I have Lis Smith, talking about her new book! So check it out!)
TIDBITS:
GIBBS: As we continue to watch the primary sweepstakes for what the 2024 Presidential nominating calendar for Democrats will look like, I thought it was interesting to see there’s some chatter among Dems involved in this of New Hampshire and Nevada going on the same day. I’ll believe it when I see it, but that would definitely shake things up on the campaign trail. New Hampshire has a state law stating where it must go and the DNC has resisted grouping the earliest states together, so this is interesting, even if I am still skeptical the Granite State is looking to share its day in the sun. More to come on this in the next couple of months…
MURPHY: New Hampshire will fight that like it’s a 1000% tax on maple syrup. Not gonna happen, as the Great Man said. Meanwhile Axios has a sad, infuriating item about this Democratic primary election meddling reaching a sick crescendo of cynicism. West Michigan Republican Congressman Peter Meijer (along with his colleague one district below him) voted to impeach Donald Trump. So, naturally he has a Trump-backed primary featuring a loopy challenger. Axios writes that the Democrats are – wait for it – flooding the airwaves with TV ads to help the loopy challenger beat Meijer in the close primary. Really? Are they going to fund Harriet “Coo-Coo for Cocoa Puffs” Hageman against Liz Cheney in Wyoming too. They’ve already spent nearly $50 million (yes million) helping nutcase Republicans win gubernatorial races in PA, MD, IL and now, a key Michigan Congressional race. I get the idea: you’re Evian water. So poison every well you can find and you’ll then force people to drink your bottled stuff whether they want to our not. And quadruple prices while you are at it. Hell, you cannot lose! Shame on them, and shame on you if you give online to the DNC or DCCC or Dem Gov’s Association. That’s your money giving crazy, dangerous people more power and a bigger platform to sell lies and hate. And to the Democratic elected busy giving pious speeches about saving Democracy, only to be the single biggest donors (true) to nutty GOP Gov candidates, well, the thin gold plating on your phony halos is flaking off, and we’re finding it’s actually made of shit.
STORIES WE ARE WATCHING: Two of former Vice President’s closest aides testified in front of a federal grand jury last Friday. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp is set to speak with the special grand jury in Fulton County. And Attorney General Merrick Garland gives a rare TV interview today as the investigative trail gets hotter.
See you on Friday!
Murphy and Gibbs