The Long and Short of Liz Cheney’s Primary Fate
Hello Hackaroos!
Well, we’re getting down to the dog days of primary season, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of action today at the polls. From Wyoming to Alaska, we give our take on what it all means – especially with the unlikely Democratic hero Liz Cheney facing the Primary Challenge from Hell. Then we talk the politics of Biden’s wins and Trump’s losses (beyond just what might have been lurking in his Mar-a-Lago safe). Plus, tidbits!
Let’s begin…
The Dog Days Of Primary Season for the GOP…
GIBBS: So, the last of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump faces primary voters today. That would, of course be, one Liz Cheney. Of those 10 Members, 7 have either lost their GOP primary or retired. Just two have been renominated. Those odds aren’t good.
MURPHY: Indeed, Gibbsie, and if the polling is anywhere near correct, I fear primary night for her will be nasty, brutish and short. While Democrats and Indys can cross over and vote in the Wyoming primary, the rank and file GOP voters are ready to dump her. (Still, while polling predicts a massive wipeout for Cheney, I think it’ll be at least a bit closer than that. Just not enough to win alas.)
GIBBS: Yeah, not shocking to any of our readers, but this isn’t likely to be a particularly close race. She’s put her values and principles first, but this is Wyoming. A couple pieces of interesting trivia though for you, Murphy, and our readers. What state gave Trump the largest percentage in 2020? You guessed it! Wyoming gave Trump 69.9% of the vote and now you have a good sense of just how uphill this entire campaign has been for her. Just as an aside, what state gave Trump his second highest percentage? If you said West Virginia, you are a winner! However, we promise our readers we’re not getting into Joe Manchin in this issue! For Liz Cheney, the numbers were always going to hard for her in this state and it’s why I don't think she's really been running for reelection to the House for quite some time. This is a national race that portends to something in 2024.
MURPHY: Enough with the Manchin stuff! I think the Cheney staff is connected to reality on this one. She decided to Damn the Politics and go full speed ahead on the January 6th investigation and God Bless her for that! It is so rare to see politicians throw their re-election calculus away and do what is right for our country. Cheney has done so without a nanosecond of hesitation and I, along with many other people deeply respect her for that. (Kudos as well to her House colleagues like Adam Kinzinger, Peter Meijer, Fred Upton, John Katko, Jamie Herrera Beutler, Dan Newhouse, Anthony Gonzalez and the other Patriots who did the same. And with the exception of Reps. Dan Newhouse and David Valadao, are not returning to the House next year through primary defeat or gunpoint retirement.). One last Hurrah to Liz, her Dad’s TV ad was my favorite of the cycle. Truer words have never been spoken in a political spot.
GIBBS: Yeah, the Dick Cheney ad was clearly a nod to something far different than just the at-large seat in Wyoming. Will be interesting to see what’s next for her. Additionally, Tuesday, GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski, who was censured by the Republican Party in Alaska and voted to impeach Trump, but probably will face a very different fate than Liz Cheney because of rank choice voting and a good size independent streak in the electorate. Remember, Murkowski lost her GOP Primary in 2010 and won on a write-in campaign. And lastly, there's special election to replace the late Don Young as well as the primary for the full term of that seat, including the notable Alaska political names Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. So, late in the cycle, but some interesting races to keep our eyes on today. Alaska’s results won’t be known for a while, however.
MURPHY: Alaska has ranked-choice voting so while that ought to help Sen. Lisa Murkowski survive, I’m not sure it is as helpful to Sarah Palin who is trying a – lucky us – big comeback in the race for Alaska’s sole U.S. House seat. We could do 500 words here on how ranked choice voting works, but I’ll cut it down to this summary: you rank your favorite candidates in order among the four contenders who finished on top in the June primary. Here’s a good ABC News primer with more details for you super-junkies. Ranked choice voting isn’t the only wrinkle in the House race however, so grab the Excedrin. There are TWO elections happening for Alaska’s sole House seat: a special election to fill the remainder of the late Don Young’s term, and a regular election to fill his next term. The general election for the remainder special election is today (ranked choice method) and a primary for the November election for a full term in the new Congress. Whew. I miss the good old days when Alaskans would settle this stuff with bowie knives at three feet.
GIBBS: The difference between a primary in Wyoming (even one that’s open to Dems) and ranked choice voting in Alaska is the latter allows a candidate, frankly encourages one, to build the broadest coalition from outset rather than appeal to the loudest part of the base. It’s why the Fates of Liz and Lisa are almost certain to turn out differently tonight.
Selling the Dems Wins to Voters
GIBBS: The big legislative news, of course, was the Friday House passage of the big climate and health care plan. Now that was a long time coming! President Biden will sign it into law this afternoon at the White House. The question now really to me is, what are they doing to make sure people get excited about what’s in it?! I've been in those meetings in the White House before where this plan is hatched. They always start out with grander expectations than what actually can be accomplished, but it’s definitely in the best interest of the Dems and President Biden, as you can see by our official generic ballot/Presidential approval tracker, to keep up with the good news narrative for voters ahead of November!
MURPHY: Yup, these things often feature maps with flags on the wall moving cabinet secretaries around the country like Panzer divisions in the false hope that HUD secretary Joe Baggadonuts visiting Atlanta for a Housing Roundtable on the Biden plan will somehow move a big political needle. Don’t count on it. But it makes everybody in the White House feel better.
GIBBS: The good news for Dems is they have a lot of popular items that will appeal to most voters and have the potential to get some elements of the disillusioned Democratic base excited to go out and vote this Fall. I say get ‘em all out there and make the case. Luckily, I think there will be a lot of campaigns dedicating dollars to TV and digital ads that will make this important case, too. Remember folks, voters don’t begin to hear it until the candidates get tired saying it!
FBI Update: Nobody Knows Anything
GIBBS: I'm amazed (should I be?!) at the arc of the narrative this past week. We started from the moment Trump alerted the world that his beautiful home had been raided and everyone was completely convinced Trump’s hand was stronger than ever on the electorate. Even the guy running a Super PAC for DeSantis was quoted saying basically, it's all over and Trump wins. And, now, just a week later you’ve got a former President who is now potentially facing serious federal charges because he has highly classified stuff in the basement of his club. The idea that the first take on news around Trump is the right one is almost never the case. Sure, lots of GOPers came out and defended him, saying outlandish things but by week’s end the word had gone out that people shouldn’t push back so hard against the FBI because this story was going to get a lot worse for Trump, not better. While we can interpret events, this past week shows it's hard to predict the future, especially when a lot of it is shrouded in secrecy.
MURPHY: It's the old William Goldman truism from Hollywood. “Nobody knows anything.” This has been the perfect example. Cable News CW is always fun to watch – I’ll be kind here – evolve. Much of the cable commentary on politics you hear is by people with limited experience in politics who are trying, well, not to look stupid as they chase the latest Beltway CW judgement. At its worse, it can be like watching a herd of very well-groomed Buffalo stampede off a cliff. I hate to sound like an old fart here, but I am an old fart so the fact is when you get a bunch of old yet highly experienced campaign people together socially the first bunch of eye-rolls is often about how anybody can get on cable TV as a political “expert” now, regardless of whether they’ve actually really worked at a senior level in major campaigns or not. The commentary on the FBI raid of Trump’s compound has been a prime example. First, it was a blunder that has re-elected him, now he’ll be in prison by Thanksgiving! The fact is – and cable really, really hates this – it is too early to tell. But it is very big and I’ll stick with what I’ve been saying for over a year: Trump is in decline and my best guess (since it is too early to tell!) is that he will not be the GOP nominee in 2024. This FBI caper only makes me more confident in my… wait for it… guess.
GIBBS: One thing I know for sure Murphy, is Donald Trump’s lawyers are earning their money these days. Last week, we mentioned all the legal webs that Trump and his associates were caught up in and this week brings even more developments. Rudy Guiliani heads to testify in front of Fulton County’s special grand jury looking into possible post-election crimes in Georgia on Wednesday, after being notified he’s a target of the probe. A federal judge ruled yesterday that Sen. Lindsey Graham can’t dodge a subpoena from the same investigation and could testify next week. Meanwhile, news reports last night said former Trump Organization Chief Financial Officer Allen Weisselberg is expected to plead guilty to criminal charges of participating in a tax scheme.
TIDBITS:
GIBBS: Back to one of our favorite states to watch: Pennsylvania. Fetterman returned to the campaign trail last Friday for his first big public event since a mid-May stroke. Fetterman was at times emotional about the journey he’s been on over the past 3 months and about the gravity of the health scare he faced. He also admitted in an interview earlier that he still may miss a word or two in a sentence, but he’s getting better every day. As we’ve covered for many months here, there likely isn’t a better Senate seat pickup opportunity for Democrats in 2022 and the health of the Dem nominee is paramount to that plan. Politically, this race feels like it’s getting away from the GOP in a fairly big way right now, Murphy.
MURPHY: I’m happy he’s feeling better. But he is in a risky position now; as the clear front-runner against the hapless Oz, the big, mean and unforgiving “gonna be the next Senator from Pennsylvania” election microscope is relentlessly focused on him now so any health – or other – stumbles will get massive media attention.
In related news, it appears the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee (NRSC) is cancelling a few million in reserved Independent Expenditure (IE) TV time in a few key races, including PA. Not clear if they are moving money from IE spending (efforts that cannot coordinate with the campaign they are trying to help) to more direct party-based investment. I wouldn’t call this a surrender quite yet (beyond the NRSC effort, Mitch McConnell has his own massive Super-PAC to help GOP Senate efforts) but it does look like at least a bit of a cash crunch at the NRSC. We’ll keep an eye on this.
We’ll see you later in the week!
Murphy and Gibbs