The Key to a Biden Reset: Empathy?
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, we’re still in about the same place in the Ukraine with lots of uncertainty around what Putin will do next. In the meantime, back at home, President Biden and the Dems seem to be planning a reset ahead of the State of the Union – their strategy: empathy. That’s where we begin before turning to some tidbits and more.
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Let’s begin…
BRING ON THE EMPATHY, MR. PRESIDENT
MURPHY: Looks like a Biden message reset is coming on domestic policy. Goodbye bragging about how good things are and hello President Empathy.
This is the strategy recommended by our own David Axelrod in a recent NYT op-ed. And it seems the White House does read the old Grey Lady. We talked about all this on the latest episode of the pod and I think it is good advice. The only downside is moving from saying things are better than people think they are to connecting with them on the pain they feel from things not being that good - doesn’t exactly fix Biden’s weak POTUS image. (Though, it does set me up nicely to harp on the “Axelrod Strategy” for being to blame if Biden stays in the polling doghouse in future episodes of our podcast. Unfair, but fun!). Anyway, it’s a step forward. Empathy is a Biden superpower and he needs a superpower right now. A new poll shows President Biden underwater in, wait for it, California!
Those are grim numbers and nothing the D’s will want to head into November with. So it’s time to unleash the empathy ray… and a win on the Ukraine would sure help! I think the POTUS is doing a good job on that, policy wise. The communications is more muddled. As I’ve said, they have set up either Russian decision as a loss for Putin and thereby a win for Biden and NATO. Either Russia doesn’t invade. Diplomacy and deference worked, so take a bow Mr. President. Or, Putin stumbled into a quagmire. NATO is united like never before and Russia is isolated. The war is limited. Adroit work by the West, led by our cagey POTUS. That all said, I’m happy to see the President did the address to the nation. Still, I don’t understand why they didn’t swing a bit bigger with the optics. Why not primetime? And the speech itself could have used a bit more polish. So it was a mid-afternoon AAA level swing, but nonetheless solid and definitely helpful. Note to WH: I know the boss is busy, but a bit more teleprompter practice time would help in future/SOTU/etc…)
GIBBS: Murphy, we live in some interesting times. Here is where we are in a nutshell. These are from this week’s Quinnipiac Poll.
While nearly 70% of Americans say their financial situation is excellent or good, nearly 80% say our economy is not good or even poor. Obviously, the second question carries some of the impact of extreme political polarization. Yet, this is the needle President Biden and his team have to thread. Combine this, with the continued impact of a pandemic, and it’s easy to see that when President Biden delivers his State of the Union speech in less than 2 weeks, he will be talking to an anxious American public.
And, Murphy, you mentioned the politics of California. I simply can’t let the recall vote go this week without some discussion here, in hopes that it’s a bit of a warning for Democrats. As a scene setter, San Francisco voters went to the polls Tuesday to vote on the recall of 3 members of the Board of Education there. If you’ve heard anything about this race then you already know many months into a pandemic that had closed schools and where teaching and learning were enormously difficult, the Board spent time researching and proposing to rename roughly a third of San Francisco schools including ones named after Abraham Lincoln, George Washington and Thomas Jefferson. Never mind that, at the time, there weren’t actually students going to those schools. Eventually, the school board relented and decided the idea needed more study, but it was too late. Other policies, such as ending the testing and grade-based admissions policy at certain high schools in favor of a lottery, only made the political problems the board had worse. In a city that gave Joe Biden 85% of its vote in 2020, the three members were recalled with votes ranging from 72-79% in favor of wanting the members removed. Read that sentence again. This wasn’t a conservative groundswell of voters that didn’t participate in the 2020 election nonsense that some in San Fran uttered in hopes of wishing away the results. It was an outcry against silliness and incompetence from elected officials trusted with important jobs. Instead of figuring out how to get kids back safely into classrooms, they were downloading Wikipedia pages to gather research for renaming school buildings. The people said “enough!” It’s my hope that Democrats will get focused on a reform minded agenda to make our schools better to help our children get the learning and skills they need to succeed and compete in the future with students from all over the world. It’s my hope Democrats will focus on improving lives and not on slogans that need more explaining because if your slogan needs explaining, then you have already lost big. And, it’s my hope that we will focus on competent leadership in times of crisis. There are lots of things Dems were fighting for that still matter a lot: child care, health care, good jobs, clean energy funding and much more. Let’s fight about those policies and take that message to voters because in the end that’s what matters most to them.
MURPHY: Preach Brother Gibbs, preach! You are so right on the woke warning to the Dems. Yet far too many Dems are afraid to buck the hard Wokestapo line. The fear the New McCarthyism that tragically rages inside much of the cancel crazy Democratic coalition. (Hell, I’m still hopping mad about NYC pulling down a Teddy Roosevelt statue.) That mainstream Democratic fear of pushing back empowers the loudest and most militant loony left voices to grab the public microphone and define the down ballot Democrats, delivering a huge gift to my old GOP pals; tons of ammo to use to bump off Democratic candidates. The media thinks AOC is a gift to the D’s because she is young, hip, clever and adroit on social media. The truth is she’s Kevin McCarthy’s political Santa Claus. Will the Dems learn a lesson from San Francisco? I’m dubious. Look at how long it has taken the GOP to even start reexamining the election disaster known as Donald Trump…
TIDBITS:
MURPHY: As we look at the key statewide races, it’s time for a quick look at the grim moonscape that is the GOP primary for Ohio Senate. Incumbent Republican Rob Portman — think Mitt Romney without the wild pizzaz — is retiring and creating an open seat race. The R primary is a Trump off and a depressing one. I’ll cut to the chase. State Senator Matt Dolan is the quality, sane, worthy candidate. Of course he’s lagging in the polls. The race is pretty open with a big field of candidates. Long time GOP candidate Josh Mandel has a weak lead with Trump hating author turned Trump lickspittle J.D. Vance and wealthy investment banker turned TV ad yahoo Mike Gibbons…
…not far behind (both are spending a lot; either from their own wallets or through wealthy pals funding SuperPAC independent expenditures). Former State Party chair Jane Timken, along with Senator Dolan, are in the middle of the pack. Timken has some support from grassroots regulars — and Sen. Portman recently endorsed her — but her polling position still lags. She too has traded in the traditional country club vibe of a GOP state party chairman for a shiny red hat MAGA as well.
Trump easily carried Ohio in two Presidential races and the current anti-Biden surge, you have to bet on the winner of the GOP to win the seat. Democratic candidate Rep. Tim Ryan is blue collar friendly — no AOC — but the way this year is turning out, I see a likely GOP pickup and a likely depressing new breed of GOP Senator. Still, I hope for Dolan.
One note: despite the Yahoo Olympics in the Ohio Senate race, the Gubernatorial primary has incumbent Mike DeWine — an old-school Roads and Progress Buckeye State Republican with a strong lead over two opponents. So Ohio Republicans do have an ability to vote sane if offered the chance.
Have a great weekend! We’ll see you next week!
Murphy and Gibbs