The Candidate The GOP Can’t Quit…
Hello Hackaroos,
As we enter the unofficial last week of summer before the traditional political year starting gun of Labor Day, we take a look at where things stand both regarding President Trump and President Joe Biden. Plus, we dive into the increasingly sharp battle over Joe Biden’s new plan to forgive a huge pile of student debt. And a final primaries update.
Also, aren’t you tired of just hearing from us? We want to know what’s on your mind! So please send us your questions and/or comments (leave them in the comments section or on our Facebook and Instagram accounts) and we’ll try to answer as many as we can later this week and next.
Let’s begin…
The 2022 Trump Factor
(Photo by James Devaney/GC Images)
GIBBS: Back in 2009 and 2010, then Vice President Joe Biden would tell President Barack Obama of one of his Dad’s many expressions: “Don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative.” The context in the White House in those days was clear. While Obama and Biden worked to respond to the Great Recession, Obama’s approval rating slowly declined as people used it as a referendum on how quickly things were improving in their own lives. But, Biden counseled that once people began comparing their plan to what Republicans had to offer, a real difference of choice, they’d fare just fine. Midterm elections tend to be this way – a referendum on the President and the party in power. Just like Biden’s Dad said though, Presidents often want (and desperately need) these elections to be one of stark contrast between two competing visions. What’s helping Biden right now make this election far more of a choice than a referendum is none other than his predecessor, Donald Trump. First, Trump has insisted on playing an enormous role on picking candidates that sound and act like him, meaning they primarily parrot the notion the 2020 election having been stolen. It’s led to weaker than normal nominees who appear to be quickly outside the mainstream to swing voters and allow Democrats to look easily more sensible and more willing to talk about their future ideas than to focus on the elections of the past. Next, Trump’s reemergence into our daily news diets because he took several hundred pages of Presidential records home with him upon leaving the White House, some with top secret information in them, has also served Biden extraordinarily well. Trump is lashing out as Trump does, harshly criticizing law enforcement, and reminding voters of the chaos they left behind when they voted him out of office in November 2020 (and, yes Donald, they did vote you out of office). Biden has worked to accelerate this split screen comparison with his rally last week with Democrats in Maryland, discussing everything from fascism to abortion being on the ballot this Fall.
Later this week, he’ll go to Philadelphia to speak on our fragile democracy, again pushing the contrast with his predecessor front and center. Combine this with a steady decline in gas prices and a resurgence in Biden’s legislative fortunes, particularly around health care, prescription drug prices and climate change funding, and Democrats are feeling more in an approving state of mind and propelling Biden to get stronger. Democrats are also VERY motivated seeing Trump back again in such a way that they realize part of this election’s enthusiasm is to send The Donald another dose of electoral reality. And don’t forget the biggest rocket boost of all – the Supreme Court’s supreme overreach in turning back the clock on a woman’s right to choose. Trump has played the willing participant in this change from referendum to choice like no other, mostly because he so loves the attention. But, it’s a contrast that truly makes Biden and his staff smile, while leaving GOP voters demoralized and GOP strategists like Karl Rove frustrated, imploring Trump to stop talking about the FBI and to “Let the election conversation get back to what it ought to be about, which is about inflation and the economy and the direction of the country and people’s views of President Biden’s competence.” Right now, as we head into Labor Day weekend, Biden and the Democrats are in a position few could have hoped for just a few weeks ago.
MURPHY: The primary season is almost over and there is no doubt The Donald has inserted himself into it as often as he can. His record is mixed. From defeat in Georgia and other races to the wipe out of nearly every Member of Congress who voted – God Bless them – to impeach him. The big question is Trump going forward? Rumors abound that he’ll soon announce he is running for President again – a surefire way to truly inject himself into the center of the national political debate now that the midterm primaries are (almost) over. My bet is he will not announce so soon. Deep down, inside the creepy maze that is the Orange Menace’s bizarro thought process, I believe that Trump knows the truth: announcing early would ultimately be a massive signal of weakness. The whole ‘announce now’ theory in Trump land is a response to looming competition inside the GOP; moving now to try to head off others. Trump’s brand is (ersatz) strength, and being dragged early into a Presidential race now looks weak and Trump knows it. Such a move is also risky. Jumping in as a candidate now means Trump will really, truly own the midterm results in Washington, DC’s venerable expectations casino. If the Democrats do “better than expected” Trump will catch a lot of blame. My guess is he’ll wait. The real temptation will be to claim credit if the GOP wins the House (and potentially more)… if he’s going to run, right after the election would be the logical jumping off point. Still, as the calendar ticks Trump faces more legal obstacles – big, scary ones – and there is no doubt that GOP nervousness about the King of Mar-a-Lago’s huge political baggage is soaring. Have no doubt, Trump is in a far weaker position now politically than he has been at any time since his Presidency. He is still a very strong force inside the party, but his path forward looks more risky every day. The main engine of that, obviously, is the dire legal quicksand he’s now flailing around in.
GIBBS: No doubt the search warrant of Mar-a-Lago that once brought the collective and boisterous howls of nearly every Republican have been replaced by just a precious few willing to stick their necks out, even as many are forced to admit that they wouldn’t have taken these documents home with them. We aren’t lawyers here but the legal fix Trump finds himself in is increasingly serious. With the release of the affidavit used to obtain the search warrant, with the piles of news stories showing Trump and his team lying about not having any more classified documents, gone is the notion that this was about a few pen-pal letters to the North Koreans. Nope, this is real and it’s not going away.
MURPHY: And now, as you mentioned, Biden is gonna do a big political speech Thursday in Philly to try to move the focus of the midterms off his struggles and on to the, um, challenges of the GOP and many of their candidates. We’ll have our take on the speech in Friday’s newsletter.
The Politics of Debt Forgiveness
MURPHY: Indeed Gibbsie, this one stings and it’s amplified by the damage the Jan 6 investigation has been doing to him for weeks. Trump has a big problem. It’s pretty obvious he is – to use the fancy legal term – guilty as F#&k. Hard to slip that noose, especially in pretty clear matters of National Security. Short term Trump can score points in the message war, feeding his core supporters a big conspiracy theory about political persecution, but while slow the legal system is like molten lava, it is very hard to stop. Meanwhile the Democrats – buoying but August (careful!!!) polling data are getting more and more cocky about their previously dire situation in the midterms. If you combine Roe energy, plus GOP block of cement level candidates, and Trump’s genius for clogging up an election that should be a negative referendum on inflation and the economy under Joe Biden the Democrats are not crazy to think things are improving and the midterms – particularly the race to control the Senate – are looking up. But we are still pre-Labor Day and there is a ton of campaign yet to happen. The GOP has a lot of bread and butter ammo to deploy. It didn’t help that – coming off a few good weeks – Joe Biden has veered into the ditch on this massive student loan write-off caper. Even reliable Democratic war horse (and good friend of the Hacks on Tap podcast) Paul Begala took a real swing at the Biden student loan write off plan this week.
The real tell is Democratic candidates in swing districts are starting to walk, and soon run, away from the Biden plan. While I don’t think it will be the key to the election for either side, it was a real stumble… just at a time when the Dems were starting to get a little real offense going. For this reason we’ll reduce our Democratic Pearl Clutching Index this week by only .25… with the student loan mess it would have dropped a lot more.
GIBBS: Well, the polling over the weekend on this issue, in the latest CBS News tracker, which had Biden's approval rating at 45, did show the reality that overall, debt forgiveness is closer to a 50-50 issue. It does very well, not surprisingly, with young voters (75% approve), Hispanic voters (68% approve) and Black voters (88% approve). Democrats overwhelmingly support it (88% approve). But overall, 54% approve while 46% disapprove and just 52% of independents say they’re for it. That’s why you saw some Democrats, particularly in tougher states where more white blue collar voters (41% approve) and seniors (43% approve) reacted more negatively to the announcement.
Source: CBS News
TIDBITS:
MURPHY: A quick note on Alaska and Sarah Palin before we wrap up. Remember Hackeroos there are two Congressional elections going on in Alaska. A Special Election to fill the last few months of the late Rep. Don Young’s seat, and a second primary election for next year’s full term. The scorecard is interesting, and the two are connected. Mary Peltola (the leading Democrat) remains ahead in the Special as the last few votes are being counted in the ranked choice system (second choice votes by those who voted for the third place candidate count). If the Dems win the Special, and I suspect Peltola will, it’ll throw another huge flaming log on ‘the Democrats are back’ midterm narrative. Palin losing the Special will likely further damage her position in the November general election (also ranked choice) for the full term in that seat. So watch this one; should have final, final votes soon. Meanwhile, GOP patriot Sen. Lisa Murkowski is looking strong for November, a rare red state anti-Trump success story.
GIBBS: No primaries this week, but next week we have Massachusetts voters heading to the ballot box and, the week after that, the Trump factor will be on full display in the New Hampshire GOP Senate primary. Murphy you just spent some time in the Granite State. What has happened to the fortunes of the GOP, which once seemed sure they’d pick up a seat there?
MURPHY: Indeed. Even after popular Governor Chris Sununu declined to run for the Senate, GOP HQ had high hopes for state Senator Chuck Morse to run against vulnerable Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan. But a Trump-nut named Donald Bolduc is ahead in the GOP primary in yet another lucky gift to Senate Dems. Morse, the GOP regular, has far more money and is trying to catch Bolduc with a big TV blitz, but Bolduc has been all over NH selling 100% pure crazy for two years and – shocker – it’s been working for him in the GOP primary.
Meanwhile, here’s a final UK Leadership election update. The voting deadline is almost upon us and everyone in UK SW thinks Liz Truss will run away with it. I doubt the shaky polling here, but the negative loser narrative on Rishi Sunak is such an endless gong, that my guess is the end is near, although I still suspect Sunak may well exceed his ultra-low expectations. Ironic, since I think he’s the far stronger general election candidate for the Tories. We’ll report the results when we get them.
Don’t forget to leave us your questions and comments ahead of Friday’s newsletter.
We’ll see you then.
Murphy and Gibbs