The Aftermath of Primary Palooza: What Does It All Mean?
Hello Hackaroos!
Well, the results are sort of in the day after the biggest and most consequential primary palooza of 2022, so far. The crown jewel being Pennsylvania, but lots of other movement from North Carolina to Idaho. We break down what we think it all means for November then some tidbits, including Murphy’s response to yet another wacko weekend on Twitter from Steve Schmidt.
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Let’s begin…
Who Really Won Last Night?
MURPHY: Trump had a pretty good night, though not perfect. And the Democratic Progressives had, it seems, a bit of a comeback after a string of losing intra-party primary fights. But let’s grind through the results as we know them here on Wednesday. Gibbsie, let’s start with Pennsylvania. What say you?
GIBBS: Well, hard not to see how 2020 election deniers weren’t some of the biggest winners, starting with the Republican Governor’s race in Pennsylvania. I thought Fetterman’s margin in the Senate race was pretty impressive, garnering nearly 60% of the vote and doing so yesterday from a hospital bed, where he received a pacemaker. Obviously, Trump had a mixed/TBD night. The PA Senate race is undecided at the moment and regardless of the outcome, nearly 70% of voters in the PA Senate race on the Republican side ignored Trump’s endorsement.
This sets up some really interesting matchups for November, as we expected. While we don’t know who his opponent will be on the GOP side, I’m really interested to see just how far Fetterman can take his persona and his politics into November and then maybe even Washington. Pennsylvania is a state where he could appeal to disaffected Dems in places outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and he’s won counties where Trump has won. Does he have that sort of ability in a more polarized federal race? How does he play in the suburbs of Philadelphia? Or inside the city with Black voters? As a reminder, there probably isn’t a bigger Senate race than Pennsylvania. It’s an open seat and it’s likely the best shot at flipping a seat if you’re the Dems.
In a previous issue, I joked about the chaos on the GOP side. In hindsight, I shouldn’t have. While PA Attorney General Josh Shapiro is the likely favorite for Governor, we should remember we are in a terrible political environment for Dems in a state Biden won by just 2%. But, Doug Mastriano, who was in Washington on January 6th, might well be the next Governor of one of the biggest, most important swing states in the country. That should keep us all up at night over the next few months.
And one last amazing irony I just can’t see past is the idea that the very votes Donald Trump alleged to have been fraudulent and resulted in Pennsylvania being stolen from him are in fact going to decide the Senate nominee in 2022. How absolutely ironic and awkward. This is worth watching in a big way not just to see who is certified the winner, but what Trump does and says about these votes.
Murphy, you’re a PA Professor, what do the results mean for the GOP and the Orange Menace?
MURPHY: What a night in PA. First, I have to agree with you that Fetterman’s win was impressive. Big victory for the Progs. Looks like he won every county, even in his primary opponent Conor Lamb’s home area in western PA. The Lamb thing is a bit tragic; a strong general election candidate (moderate, Marine, good campaigner) who could never raise the money to really compete. You’d think Sen Schumer and the DC Democrats would have put their $-raising muscle behind him to get the fastest horse in the general election since Pennsylvania is such a vital state to win control of the Senate. But they didn’t – Schumer fears upsetting the Progressives and getting his own primary down the line – so Fetterman got the big prize. We’ll see how he’ll play in the general; attractive Un-Cola type candidate, or liberal who is easy to attack.
Still, the messy GOP situation has to be a Happy Meal for the D’s. The GOP gubernatorial nominee – “The Great Mastriano” as I like to call him because he is very likely to make any Republican hopes of winning the Governor’s race instantly disappear – is a slow general election pony whose election denier routine may even screw up the Senate race for the R’s. Whoever wins the Senate recount – Oz or McCormick – will have a tough choice everyday on the campaign trail: do they distance themselves from the nutty Mastriano and risk a war with Mastriano’s hardcore base Trumpers (votes they need), or stay with him and lose the swing suburbs (votes they need). It’s a razor blade sandwich and now they have to chomp on it every day of the campaign. Ouch!
We don’t know yet who will be the Senate nominee. It’s neck and neck with Oz about 2500 votes ahead and McCormick betting on a bunch of final absentees coming in from his home area of Western PA to catch up. As I Tweeted mid-last night when Oz was in a tight second place, I’d probably rather be him, but it’s really close. McCormick is the more serious person, despite ill-fitting Trump costume he wore in the primary. (I thought his security code name should have been “Mayhew” after Peter Mayhew the English actor who labored mightily inside the hot and heavy Chewbacca costume in Star Wars).
But still, McCormick is not Oz and has a better chance in the general election so you can bet team NRSC is praying for those Allegany County AB’s to rescue him. We’ll see. My guess is it’ll be Oz. Either way, the GOP nominee will have powerful tailwinds from Biden’s problems and the liberal Fetterman has plenty of vulnerabilities in a general election. This election will be fascinating; probably a contest of which flawed candidate loses the most.
So Dr Gibbs, what say you about NC?
GIBBS: Like Fetterman in PA, I was impressed by the vote of former North Carolina Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley’s 80+% in the Dem Senate primary. NC is a swing state, albeit on the slightly more GOP leaning side in a normal year. I think Beasley will make this competitive, the real question is how competitive, of course, given the political environment nationally. Lastly, it was a bad night for Madison Cawthorn, who thought coming to Congress was about working on his personal brand rather than working for his constituents – a good warning for others. If you want to be a commentator, go to FOX. If you want to legislate, run for Congress.
As for Trump, he was a winner in NC. So, what does that all mean for him? I think his grip isn’t as tight as it has been but, as I’ve said A LOT, show me someone who can beat him in a GOP primary race where he’s the name on the ballot. Endorsing a candidate and running yourself are different things.
MURPHY: Oh, I’m just sooooo happy Cawthorn lost. Our readers know from earlier tidbits that he was in trouble in the data – there was a big GOP effort led by Sen Thom Tillis to ice him – and America is far better off without him in Congress. Also happy to see Idaho Gov Brad Little fight off a primary challenge from his Trumper Lt Gov with ease.
Finally, I have to say it looks like the Progs bumped off a Blue Dog Member – Kurt Shrader – in Oregon’s 5th CD. We don’t know for sure yet, but that and Fetterman represent two important wins for Team Bernie. Not good in my view for the Democratic party, but you gotta give big wins big credit.
GIBBS: And finally, next week, all eyes will turn to my favorite state: Georgia, where Trump is almost guaranteed a rough night given the truly lackluster campaign run by David Perdue.
MURPHY: Indeed. It’s Trump’s biggest target race and my money is on Governor Brian Kemp leaving a large boot mark on the Orange One’s ample keister.
TIDBITS
GIBBS: Before we go, I have to comment on New York’s congressional redistricting which is now a certifiable mess. Murphy, it just proves one more time that Democrats just aren't as good at gerrymandering as Republicans are because this is a good example of Democrats simply trying to do too much. They produced a map that was likely to gain them 3 seats but a judge put a stop to it. Dems ended up getting the map drawing taken away from them and given to a special master. It’s produced a decidedly more competitive map that wipes away the gains they’d hoped to see and made the GOP more competitive in certain places. But the most problematic part for Dems seems to be you're going to have several current Members of Congress running against each other in upcoming primaries. It’s causing some harsh words and some hard feelings, and means the seats they hoped to net here are not going to happen.
MURPHY: Yeah, it's not just on Wall Street, that the old saying applies, “Bulls make money, bears make money and hogs get slaughtered.” Because that’s what happened, they were too greedy and now it’s a total mess for the D’s with soon to be very bitter internal wars that will reverberate for a long time. This will be a huge distraction inside the Democratic Congressional world.
One final report from Crazytown. Steve Schmidt had yet another meltdown on Twitter, accusing me of all sorts of nutty stuff and almost all of it of course being totally untrue. Rather than give him more air time, I'll just share the original article about the Real Steve Schmidt from my friend Matt Lewis that I re-Tweeted triggering his latest meltdown. As they say in Texas, it's the guilty dog that barks the loudest. Enjoy.
We’ll just leave it at that.
See you on Friday!
Murphy and Gibbs