Still Waitin’ for Our Fight!
Hello Hackaroos,
We’re back in full force this week, with two for the price of one (aka you still get to read us for free). We start with the return of Popeye Doyle to get his take on the big French election and then what the White House should (or should not) learn from Macron’s win over the weekend. One thing they still aren’t doing is pick a fight to build some momentum heading into the midterms. Then we go through a roundup of tidbits on all of the midterm races coming up with time ticking closer to the next big primaries.
Let’s begin…
The French Connection
MURPHY: I caught up with Popeye Doyle, our expert on all things French to get his reaction to Macron’s double-digit runoff victory this weekend against Marine Le Pen. Popeye predicted a Macron victory when we last checked in and here’s his quick take on the results: “Big legit win for the Boss Frog. He took his beating, got his cuffs smeared a bit and, in the end, he was always going to nab this one because the other lady, they know her and they don’t like her. And being so clearly on the pad to the Putin gang, well that was never going to fly. That said, Macron’s problems ain’t over yet. The Frogs have this two-headed system where the President is the big magilla, but there’s also a Prime Minister to look out for day-to-day stuff like the price of cheese or whatever else they care about over there. Those elections, for the Frog Congress as it were, occur in June and Macron could still get his ears boxed. It’s up to him and if he can show he got the message, or not. As I’ve said, it ain’t easy being the Boss Frog.”
GIBBS: Yeah, it’s also hard being a Hack these days too! In Friday's newsletter, I mentioned that Macron was the favorite, but not likely to get the number he got in the last election. While that’s the case, it looks like I underestimated Macron (like most of the media). Right now, the current projections are north of 58%, which many on Twitter pointed out was more than Charles de Gaulle got the first time he faced voters in France. So, a big win for Macron and a big message for Putin too.
MURPHY: Yup, the rule is double digits is always good and over 15 is always great! But I can’t blame you Gibbsie, pearl clutching is in the Democratic DNA!
GIBBS: To compare it to the US (which is why the French love us so much!), we should remind everyone that the last time a candidate racked up that kind of percentage in a US Presidential election was 1984. So, in the last 10 Presidential elections, it's happened exactly once. But as you said, Murphy, the process continues and Le Pen has vowed to continue to be Macron’s nemesis, continuing in the parliamentary elections.
MURPHY: Yeah, but this may be her last stand if she can't show a decent result in these upcoming June parliamentary elections.
Time Is Ticking for Biden To Pick A Fight!
GIBBS: I hate to sound like a broken record, but boy time is getting short for Democrats to pick a fight in this election trying whatever is possible (I understand the historical forces don't favor this), to make November about something other than a referendum on Joe Biden. As I told Murphy’s favorite paper of record the New York Times last week, “What you’re seeing is people feeling like it’s time to head for the lifeboats rather than trying to steer the ship.”
Credit: Nathan Howard / Getty Images News
We need people to steer that ship though! And yet, there are 12 weeks left in the Senate session before the August recess. And I hate to sound like a congressional reporter, but if the time is not now for this fight, I don't know when it is. The problem right now is not only are Democrats not getting in a fight with Republicans on any of the issues that we've talked about, but we're going to spend this entire week in sort of a Democratic circular firing squad around immigration and Title 42, which we talked about in our Friday newsletter. Biden met with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. The Secretary of Homeland Security, charged with border security, is testifying in front of three different congressional committees this week. So, not only is this a week in which we're not picking a fight, but it's almost certainly a week in which Republicans find an issue that both unites them and excites their base. Late Monday, a federal judge in Louisiana temporarily blocked the Biden Administration’s ability to lift the COVID border restrictions. Increasingly, it looks like the politics may get solved by the courts, presumably to the relief of the White House.
MURPHY: Watching all this, it occurs to me that while we keep talking about different fights to pick – with the clear presumption that for the D’s picking the right fight is good politics – that the WH High Command just doesn’t buy that. We think it’s obvious, but they aren’t doing it so… They must think it’s a dumb move. OK, I guess, but then, what is the play? Being a piñata and hoping the other guys will break their hands on your face seems like a pretty doomed strategy to me. What is their plan? I have no idea at this point. I’ll tell you one move that doesn’t pass the snort n’ laugh test…trying to use the Macron win as an analogue for Biden’s troubles. Way different situation.
GIBBS: Maybe this is the plan, Murphy?
TIDBITS:
GIBBS: We've got so many tidbits today, we're going to have to start calling this section Tidbit-palooza. In the next five weeks, we have some very big primary and runoff races that will let voters decide who the nominees will be in this fall’s midterm elections. Let’s run through some of them. First, Trump was in Ohio stumping for JD Vance over the weekend, where the recently endorsed candidate waded through a mix of cheers and boos. This endorsement is a bit controversial to many Ohio Republicans. With just one week to go until that primary, there’s a lot is at stake for Trump, which is why Don Jr. has basically relocated to living in Ohio. In neighboring Pennsylvania, there were debates on Monday featuring both the Republican and Democratic candidates facing off with just three weeks to go in that big race. On the GOP side, Dr. Oz repeatedly wielded his Trump endorsement to fend off a number of attacks on his credentials as a true conservative. Over on the other side, one issue the Democratic frontrunner, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, is being challenged hard on is around the events in 2013 when he was mayor of a small suburb of Pittsburgh. Fetterman chased a Black man down with a shotgun, thinking he’s been involved in a shooting. Read more here.
Lastly, four weeks from now, the Republican primary for Governor in Georgia will take place. The debate Sunday for anybody who watched even a few clips of it was beyond scorched earth.
David Perdue literally started the debate saying that 2020 was rigged and stolen and blamed the incumbent Governor Brian Kemp for not doing enough to stop it all. Wild stuff as always. The question for Perdue is whether his factually faulty rhetoric can help him overcome a decent sized deficit in the polls. This morning, a poll from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution showed Kemp leading 53-27. If the Perdue campaign doesn’t bring Kemp’s total down from that number, he could lose without even making a runoff.
That gets you caught up on some of the big races as they head down the homestretch.
MURPHY: Poor Perdue, you can see the shame and pain in his eyes during that video clip. He knows it’s crap. Yet…. Meanwhile two nuggets to throw into our Hacks Tidbit stew: one, internal polls show the one sane choice in the Ohio Senate race, state Senator Matt Dolan, is moving up fast. He’s got a bunch of TV now – he’s wealthy and has super PAC help – and his sane slash I can win easily in November pitch seems to be gaining traction. This internal polling is legit, and has him now surging into second place behind Trump-endorsed J.D. Vance, the Hillbilly Faust. I’ll still be surprised if Dolan pulls this off, but it, as I said, it’s a legit poll. Fingers crossed.
The biggest news of the weekend to my ears was a big development in Utah where the Democrats voted at their convention to not put a U.S. Senate candidate on the ballot, giving Republican turned Independent Evan McMullin a real shot at badly endangered GOP incumbent Sen. Mike Lee. This may have just become the most interesting race in the Senate this year; a hybrid Republican/Indy reform candidate versus a hard core Trumper and – as we’ve learned from recent Lee texts – sedition accomplice. I’m all in for McMullin – a former CIA officer and day one anti-Trumper. Check out his campaign website. If you like what you see, join me and join up.
Finally, we’ve written in the past about the big fight at the Michigan state Republican convention where Republican regulars put up a tough fight, but the AG nomination to Matt DePerno, a pure Trumpy election results denier. (A few of the other down ballot GOP candidates chosen were also cranks; the state party should buy them all Napoleon hats to wear as they go forth to meet the Wolverine State’s beleaguered voters.) Sigh, I remember well when the MI GOP was a crack outfit. The scary thing is in a bad enough Democratic year, even a GOP super-crank can win so we’ll be keeping a wary eye on Michigan.
We’ll be back on Friday. See you then!
Murphy and Gibbs