Sorry Sarah + Your Mailbag Questions Answered – Part I
Hello Hackaroos!
First of all, we can’t thank you enough for answering our call for questions. You sent in so many we have to break up the mailbag issue into at least two (and Murphy doesn’t have to make up the questions on his own!). Keep them coming!
Before we get there though, we couldn’t resist giving our take on the loss of Sarah Palin in Alaska and President Biden’s big speech in Philly last night.
By the way, one question we received from a lot of you is what happened to the podcast this week? Our answer: Thank you for checking and, don’t worry, we’ll be back next week!
With that, let’s get to it!
What Sarah Palin’s Loss Means for the GOP
MURPHY: So we’ve been predicting this possibility for a while here in the HOT newsletter. The idea has always been that ranked choice voting means “love her or hate her” candidates like Palin will have headwinds since it is unlikely that the second choice of non-Palin candidates will be Palin. If you are not voting for Palin, you are against her. That clearly played out in the Alaska special. And Mary Peltola’s victory is more “we baaaack” psy-ops chow for worried Democrats. Now the question is the November election, since the Special only covers the few months left in the late Rep. Don Young’s term. I’m curious how losing the special will affect Palin’s candidacy for the full term. Will the loss stain her with Day-Glo LOSER paint and slow down her effort toward November? There will be pressure to unite Republicans. Will that pressure force rival GOP candidate Nick Begich out as Palin almost certainly blames him for her loss? Or can third place finisher Begich argue that Palin had a shot and should bow out. He’s no fan of hers so he’ll be quick to attack her. Finally, as before, the November election is ranked choice, so if Palin remains, that remains a challenge for her. Will be interesting. No big lessons here I fear, but so far the theory that ranked choice voting is bad for polarizers is certainly holding up.
GIBBS: Couldn’t agree more, Murphy. The outcome is a surprise in that you don’t associate Democrats winning with Alaska, but the process here combined with the baggage Palin brought into this race (many still can’t get past her resignation as Governor) makes it less shocking. There is something deeply rich as this political environment changes seemingly by the day, that the candidate who was Tea Party and MAGA before either existed now can’t win a race in a GOP state. Like you, I will be fascinated to see what happens next here when they run this back in just a few weeks time.
Biden Feels Some Philadelphia Freedom…
GIBBS: Overall, I thought it was a pretty good speech. To me, the strongest parts were the call to arms, if you will, to protect our democracy, regardless of your ideology. Honestly, it sounded like a speech Biden might give at a Democratic Convention, a mixture of accomplishments and a contrast in vision. Will some criticize this as an overly political speech? Of course they will because it was just as Biden’s event earlier in the week (also in Pennsylvania) was too. Oh, and guess where Biden is going for Labor Day? If you guessed Pennsylvania, you’re right. The President is getting firmly in campaign mode just as the calendar says he must. His numbers are improving even if there’s more work to do. A look at The Wall Street Journal poll from Thursday, conducted by none other than Biden and Trump’s pollsters, shows real improvement for Biden and the Democrats. Dems now lead the generic ballot by 3 after trailing the GOP by 5 in the previous poll from March. The Supreme Court’s decision is cited as the single most likely reason for someone to vote in November’s election. Biden’s approval is up to 45% and he leads Trump in a hypothetical rematch 50%-44%. Yes, headwinds persist on the economy, but the contrast Biden and team want to make with Trump is a good one for voters to hear right now.
MURPHY: Meh. Good for the D’s that Biden is in war mode. Mr. Get Along has left the building. And the focus on Trump is good Dem base politics. But unless Biden can really move the numbers on middle class economic issues, dangerous wave pressure will remain.
YOUR MAILBAG QUESTIONS – PART I
Chris Sautter: Back in a previous era Labor Day marked the end of summer and the start of the fall political season. Nowadays some observers believe that the candidate preferences of most voters are locked in by Labor Day. How true is this? What percentage of voters are truly persuadable in the final weeks of high visibility campaigns? And what does this mean for US Senate races in states like Pennsylvania and even Arizona where the Democratic candidates have opened leads outside the margin of error?
MURPHY: It’s not so much calendar timing as the more partisan/tribal nature of our politics. Most votes are locked in, but the persuadable minority is still a material factor in the two dozen or so House races and the few Senate races that will decide control of both Houses.
GIBBS: Undoubtedly, the last nine weeks of Election 2022 will matter. If you look at the national exit polling from the Presidential race in 2020, one quarter of the electorate made up their mind on who to vote for from September through Election Day. That’s a big chunk of voters in an otherwise highly polarized electorate. One thing to be prepared for is many of these Senate races are going to get tighter as partisans revert to being, well, partisans and swing states revert to being, well, swing states. A long, long way to go in these races. I doubt any campaign, particularly in a toss-up state is taking anything for granted.
A.L. Tennyson: If every congressional district were a swing district, which party would control the House next year?
MURPHY: The GOP, most likely. I would have said certainly 60 days ago.
GIBBS: Right now, it would be pretty close I think given what we are seeing in the generic Congressional ballot polling. But, even as things have improved for Dems there are still sizable headwinds as I mentioned above. I’d still give the GOP the advantage in the House. One thing is for sure, if every seat was a swing seat, the governing product would improve a lot since there would be strong incentives to get things done rather than to scream and fight.
Harris Wallace: With the ticket splitting apparent in recent Georgia polls, what should Abrams do?
MURPHY: Build a time machine, go back a year and not run. She will be tarnished by a second defeat and her once rising star will dim. But she’s stuck in this race, so she needs to rehash her best strategy from her last race and work the middle, focusing on the burbs.
GIBBS: Murphy, stop being so cynical! Again, this is a tough race in a tough state and in a tough environment. She has to continue to contrast her vision with Gov. Kemp in the important Atlanta suburbs where voters have less party allegiance and have a massive turnout machine ready for get base voters to the polls. I’d bet she spends a little more time too in rural Georgia, trying to keep the margins down some for Kemp. It’s not too late as this race is going to be close.
Source: FiveThirtyEight.com
John Griffith: What's up in Georgia? Raphael Warnock can not seem to shake Walker (who is a horrible candidate). Senator Warnock seems strong. Please assure me that we will never see a "Senator" Walker.
MURPHY: Sorry John, in a wave election even a weak candidate like Walker can win. It can happen and the fact that Walker is still essentially tied in polls with Warnock is a bad sign. Still, if there is a surge in young voters (not normally high turnout voters in off year elections) and Walker keeps up the crazy talk, Warnock has a shot to survive. Tell me what Biden’s numbers will be on Oct 20th on handling the economy and I’ll tell you who wins the Georgia Senate seat.
Source: FiveThirtyEight.com
GIBBS: As a I said above, Georgia is tough and it’s even harder when the environment is challenging for Dems. Remember, this has been a swing-ish state for about ten minutes. Before 2020, it had been a while since a Democrat won a Senate seat from Georgia. I’d love to tell you it isn’t going to happen for Herschel but I think this could be the closest Senate race in the country on Election Night. Even if Warnock runs a flawless campaign, which he’s done thus far, this race is still essentially a coin flip. Not what you want to hear I know, but I fear it’s the reality in the Peach State.
David Schrantz: Florida, we need to checkmate DeSantis. With 36% Republicans and 34% Dems, that leaves about 27% no party. While he sits on a ton of money and is high on his soapbox about how good he is, I believe a silent majority can’t wait to make him a one term governor with his antics thrown out the window. How do you see the "no party affiliation" playing out, without which DeSantis cannot win??
MURPHY: A lot of NPP (no party preference) voters tilt right on economics and vote GOP. I think Charlie Crist is a cagey pol and may be a bit under-rated in Florida, but the race is still DeSantis’s to lose.
GIBBS: Crist is a good politician, but wow it’s been a LONG time since a Dem won a statewide race in FL (Obama in 2012 I think) and even longer since a Democrat won the Governorship (Lawton Chiles beat Jeb Bush in 1994 by 64,000 votes). Murphy is (regrettably) right here that this is DeSantis’s to lose. But, I think Demings will help turnout base Dem voters, which will be crucial and I’d like to see Crist keep this close, give him a real run and try out some messaging stuff to see if it will work for Dems should they need it against him in 2024.
Jerry Mudd: Will Trump be held accountable for his crimes and indicted? Does the DOJ have the fortitude to do what is right, no matter the fallout/uproar from the MAGA crowd? Are there any in the GOP that will back what is right or just? Or are they all retired from Congress?
MURPHY: In the House many have retired or lost primaries. I cannot predict the DOJ, but my view is that Trump’s crimes will catch up with him.
GIBBS: Jerry, I think the DOJ has the fortitude they need to see this through. It has taken fortitude, if you will, to get this far, knowing how much howling would come their way sending the FBI into Mar-a-Lago. But, when they did, they found the goods. Neither Murphy nor I are lawyers, let alone legal experts (though Murphy could play a lawyer on TV!), but I think this is Trump’s most vulnerable legal fight yet as he and his lawyers don’t seem to have a real legal reason for having those documents.
John Wolfe: I haven't heard anyone, Republican, news media (I do not listen to Fox and similar) provide one legit reason why Trump would have taken the files with him. If you have heard of any, please enlighten me. Keep up the hacking!!!
MURPHY: Legit, no. On the pod a few weeks ago, Ace Journo Maggie Haberman made an interesting point: Trump is a total fiend for souvenirs etc. So it might have been a case of collector/lunatic running amuck. Or something more sinister. (“Hello Russian Bank? Now about all those loans…). I am now convinced that there are no alien bodies at Area 51, since Trump would have kept a big claw and made a paperweight out of it…
GIBBS: GREAT QUESTION John! I haven’t heard a good reason and I think this is a big question we have yet to spend any real time on or to know all that much about the answer to thus far. We know from the law around Presidential records he had no right to have the documents but, like you, I want to know WHY he had them and what his intentions for using them were.
We’ll be back after Labor Day with more from the mailbag so keep your questions coming!
Thanks for your questions and enjoy the long weekend!
Murphy and Gibbs