Some Clarity In The Politics of 2022
Hello Hackaroos,
We’re back after an extended weekend and we think we have a little bit of clarity around what is going to drive the midterm primaries and elections come November. That’s where we begin before some tidbits, including the upcoming primary season calendar and Murphy weighing in on Steve Schmidt and his rant about the McCains.
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Let’s begin!
The Midterm Map: The Economy and Abortion Rights
GIBBS: So, Murphy, with slightly less than six months until Election Night 2022, this week’s Presidential schedule and Senate debate give us real clarity into what the fights are all going to be about for the remainder of the election year. First, there’s the continuing debate over abortion, highlighted by efforts in the House and Senate to codify the existing law under Roe v. Wade (which, sadly, is going nowhere in the Senate), and the continuing skirmish over the economy and inflation, the topic President Biden seeks to contrast on today, coupled with the latest monthly inflation report being released on Wednesday.
MURPHY: Yup Gibbsie, it’s getting clear this is going to be a two-hander of an election; first the economy/inflation and second the biggest battle over abortion rights since the 70’s. (And of course, they may well still be an October surprise either domestically or if Ukraine or another foreign policy crisis really escalates.) The President’s remarks today clearly shows the White House understands this and knows well that they cannot continue to let public fears about the economy and surging inflation continue to hobble the Democrats politically. While the D’s are motivated and confident fighting a huge abortion rights battle, they know that as big as that issue is, if they continue to lose kitchen table economic issues they are going to have a very tough time this November.
GIBBS: The debate in the Senate, inside the Supreme Court and throughout the country comes as the latest CBS poll shows 64 percent of America supports the existing law and opposes the Supreme Court’s likely plan to overturn it, which just 36% of America believes should be the path forward. In the polarized, 50/50 world we tend to live in, these are compelling numbers against the Supreme Court.
Another poll, this one from CNN released late Friday shows Democrats more energized than before, but also shows continued (and stronger voter enthusiasm) from Republicans eager to cast their vote in 2022. As you and I predicted Murphy, the issue before the Supreme Court is not going to make or break the entire political season. Frankly, in this day and age it would be really hard for one issue alone to do that. And the White House knows that, which is why Joe Biden will talk about both abortion and inflation this week. He understands that you can't have a message on one and not have a message on the other, particularly when the other issue in this case has been front and center throughout the past many months. Abortion politics won’t save the Democrats but it certainly gives them a chance to change the landscape somewhat. But any sort of success still requires a robust message on inflation and the direction of the economy. Yes, the jobs numbers continue to be historically strong but perception is reality and people are feeling the burden of higher costs.
MURPHY: We agree on inflation. I do think the abortion fight will have a lot of raw political power. America’s current political culture is not about taking things away and the Court rolling back a right that over 60% of the population think they currently have is guaranteed to be a thorny thing. I’ve been a bit surprised at how wobbly the Democratic Senate strategy has been out of the box. They are rushing to a big Senate vote on codifying abortion rights and the narrative is about how doomed it is; Manchin will not support a filibuster change blah blah blah. I thought the vote might get some traction as a moment of high drama, but it needed time to boil. Let the country organize toward it, turn up pressure, raise money, raise Hell. The big Senate vote should have been the third act crescendo, instead Leader Schumer has raced to a fast vote, a big defeat and a national sigh. That’s playing to lose in the Build Back Better tradition. The issue will still be very big in the midterms, but as a matter of political theater the D’s have blown the first act.
GIBBS: Speaking of the midterms, here’s a nifty reminder of all that’s ahead with some major, big time primaries over the next few weeks. A member vs. member House race on the GOP side happens tomorrow in West Virginia as well as a hotly contested Nebraska primary fight for the Republican nomination for Governor. A week from today brings us the epic battles in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, followed 7 days later with Georgia, Alabama and runoffs in Texas. Murphy, I’m excited just thinking about it all! Stay tuned for analysis, coverage and the latest on the fate of who Trump’s endorsed.
Source: New York Times
MURPHY: The West Virginia primary is particularly interesting; it’s Trump behind one incumbent GOP Congressman (Mooney) versus alleged West Virginia Superman Joe Manchin behind the other (McKinley) along with popular Governor Jim Justice. Manchin’s candidate McKinley is the better Member – Trump’s guy is, shocker, a pandering lightweight – but the real fun here is somebody has to wind up the big weakling and lose tomorrow; either Manchin or Trump.
TIDBITS:
MURPHY: I love a good Democratic feud, and this is one I can get behind. Go Mayor Adams Go!
GIBBS: Returning to the Supreme Court for a second, not that Clarence Thomas has ever cared much about what the American people think about him or the consequences of his legal opinions, but in a speech that he gave in Atlanta on Friday, he had the nerve to say that people need to get used to living with Court decisions that they disagree with. He apparently gave this speech with no sense of irony and clearly didn’t give a copy of this speech to his wife, who repeatedly texted then White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows to do more to overturn the 2020 election despite courts repeatedly rejecting Trump’s argument of fraud. I'm certainly not for, regardless of the issue, protesting at somebody's home, but wow, the Supreme Court better figure out how to enter the 21st century, particularly as it removes a right roughly two-thirds of the country believes should be protected. The Judiciary is now the only branch of government without some sense of accountability to the people. They decide, but don’t have to defend their reasoning. And, lest we forget, four of these current Justices went in front of the Judiciary Committee during their confirmation hearings and apparently lied about Roe as precedent and settled law, and did so under oath.
MURPHY: Finally, a personal word on former McCain/Perry/Howard Schultz/Lincoln $roject advisor Steve Schmidt’s maniacal Twitter meltdown. I worked side by side with John McCain in the 2000 primaries. I was very close to him and that experience on the Straight Talk Express is something I well cherish forever. Later I chose to avoid the 2008 McCain campaign; I had run Mitt Romney’s gubernatorial race in 2002 and was busy exploring a Presidential race for Mitt when McCain called me and said, essentially, WTF Murph I’m going to run again. I saw a conflict and made the only decision I thought I could; I became neutral, not wanting to betray either close friend. But I talked to McCain a fair bit during that doomed race and I have a pretty good idea what was actually going on in 2008. I’m going to keep my confidences with my late and heroic friend other than to say this; beware of Schmidt’s narcissistic obsession with casting himself as the uncorrupted hero of every campaign story he tells. Steve has always, at his core, been in the what’s good for Steve Schmidt business. Yes, the 2008 McCain campaign was a train wreck with endless internal fighting. It was also a strategic mess; a bad campaign with a lousy message that lost. Yes, Rick Davis was a huge, awful problem; in 2000, in 2008 and beyond. But Schmidt’s self-glorifying attacks on the late Senator’s reputation disgust me. McCain, a great man with a great man’s flaws, will be remembered by history. Steve Schmidt will not be. And that is how it should be.
GIBBS: All I’ll say Murphy is maybe someone should hide Steve’s Twitter machine for a bit. Paging Elon Musk…
We’ll be back on Friday with the latest developments on the race to beat Iowa to be the first in the nation come 2024.
Murphy and Gibbs