So What Just Happened and What Now?
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, despite what one of us has been saying the past few months, things WERE different in this midterm cycle. We break down why we think that is and celebrate the biggest winner in this cycle: democracy! Of course, if you happened to not fall asleep in the middle of a certain Orange Menace’s speech last night, the one memo that didn’t make it to Mar-a-Lago was that he lost!
Let’s begin!
It Turns Out the Midterms Were Different!
Three Big Dem Winners at the Capitol on Tuesday (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
MURPHY: Well Gibbsie, what a midterms. Turns out it WAS different this time. A lot of historical norms were upset so I’ll eat my crow right now. Caw. We’re still counting final votes in CA and a few other places, but the result is clear: the Democrats beat the historical norm and did very well. Yes, they lost the House, but narrowly enough to be historically pretty remarkable, especially with high inflation and an unpopular President. All in all, this was the most interesting off-year election I’ve seen since I started doing this stuff in 1982.
GIBBS: Yeah, Murphy, when we look at this election over the next many years, it’s likely to become only more amazing. The only two times in recent elections where the party in power won seats was 1998 with Clinton and 2002 with George W. Bush. Both Presidents had approvals above 60%. Just a stunning outcome for Dems. They retained their important majority in the Senate, crucial for Presidential appointments, additional Federal judges and potential bipartisan legislative agreements. Even though they’ve narrowly lost the House, with the GOP going from 212 to likely somewhere near 220, the slim margin of GOP control means it’s now very much in play in 2024. What a night!
MURPHY: So Gibbsie, I have a few theories about what happened. First, all the polling shows this was a “wrong track” election. That’s pollster talk for an angry electorate ready to send a message. Most of us pundits and consultants assumed – like in prior elections – the wrong track (with near 70% of all voters saying things in the U.S. were “pretty seriously off on the wrong track”) was an economic phenomenon; it was the economy stupid and people were ready yet again to punish the ruling party. And have no doubt that economic anger was part of it. (More voters cast a GOP ballot for Congress than a Democratic one in total, and the GOP number is up about 5-6% from 2020.). But the bigger driver was a boiling frustration with crazy extreme politics itself and that’s where the GOP and its phalanx of cement block candidates took massive incoming. With a mighty assist from Donald Trump, the GOP and its guttersnipe crew of Walker/Kari Lake/Oz/Blake Masters/and various Whacko-bird Congressional Candidates managed to make the election even more about them and their many epic weaknesses than it was about economic pain under Joe Biden. Quite the historic accomplishment. In recent elections only Osama Bin Laden in 2002 was also able to crowbar the midterm focus away from the new President (when George W. grabbed House seats. Check out veteran political pundit Stu Rothenberg’s very prescient Hill column from September of this year here.
Add to the GOP’s unforced errors, a definite turnout surge in many places from the Dobbs/Roe decision and well... a perfect storm that ruined GOP chances to run the table, ala the historical norm. But the WH should understand, this election was a clear scream of “enough” about GOP overreach, not a full-throated endorsement of all things Biden and Democratic. The D’s still lost the House, if only by a razor thin margin. Sure, that’s a victory, but one in the Dunkirk tradition. Also, interestingly, this election created both red and blue local waves: in Florida, it was GOP all the way. While in blue New York, Democrats had a very bumpy time, losing multiple Congressional seats (including the head of Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.). In Michigan, though, it was donkey time across the board; not only did rising Dem star Gov. Gretchen Whitmer win a nice big re-election, my old foes over at the Michigan Democratic Party also won control of the MI state senate for the first time since 1983. Yes, no typo there, since 1983!
The best news of the election was this: the absolute worst thing a candidate could be at the polls this year was an election denier. At every level, from Secretary of State candidates to Gubernatorial and Senate candidates, those who loudly called the election of 2020 false or stolen got creamed. Democracy had a great day at the polls. Sorry Kari Lake. Back to the weekend weather job for you.
GIBBS: Absolutely, crazy lost, Murphy. Extremism lost. Republicans proved to side with both on abortion, as many favored taking a no exceptions position supported by just 10% of the American people. Couple that with two years of election denial and you’ve staked out positions far outside the mainstream and far outside where a majority of people are in their politics. The base of the Democratic Party was energized and, according to exit polls, Dem candidates won independent voters. In the 2010 shellacking, independents broke heavily for the GOP. Dems also proved with big wins that they have a robust bench of stars with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, newly elected Govs. Josh Shapiro and Wes Moore just to name a few.
We will know more about the electorate that showed up in the days and weeks to come. I am interested in seeing voter turnout among women and younger voters, which Dems needed to show up in big numbers and it sure looks like they did on Election Night. Republicans will have their work cut out for them to run the House with a razor thin majority as the Trumpier group of Members calls for even stronger stands against Democrats, investigations and impeachments, all likely to continue to position them outside the mainstream. For Biden, using the House as a foil will be very important to his future political success. He now has a big decision to make and Democratic performance means he has the important space to make that decision with his family. His political universe would have looked a lot different with a red wave.
MURPHY: You might well be right Gibbsie, but I also have little doubt the D’s in the House will find a way to screw some of their opportunity up. But the biggest news is this: Donald Trump is now bleeding all over the carpet. The fact is he’s in a whole new GOP world now and it’s not pretty for him. A surging number of GOP leaders and voters are now ready to take Ol’ Donald behind the barn and do what needs to be done – metaphorically of course – to save the party from the Biggest Election Loser in Republican electoral history. Step aside Herbert Hoover and Barry Goldwater, you are now nothing compared to Donald Trump when it comes to losing elections for the Republican party. (And you were both rock solid and principled patriots, clearly unlike the Donald.). Trump has now murdered the GOP in 2018, 2020, and 2022. And that’s now clear to everybody. The King of Mar-a-Lago has become America’s King Mar-a-Loser. And while Trump announced last night that he is indeed running for President (and trying to use his new candidate status to try and run away from likely indictments) his low energy ramble of an announcement speech didn’t make his shaky position in the party any stronger. In fact, Trump now looks like a fading low energy Loser, and that’s poison for his brand. So I say: let the GOP civil war to purge this ballot box cancer from the Party begin!
GIBBS: I watched, or at least tried to watch, Trump’s announcement speech last night. It felt pretty lackluster as he read his lines from the teleprompter and the room felt low energy, so much so that FOX cut away and I don’t think that was because Rupert Murdoch told them too! It had the feeling of going to say a great concert from an artist a few years past their prime. The sound and the energy just don’t feel the same. In the parts that did air, his 2022 analysis only mentioned Republicans taking back the House and lamented that many were “still trying to blame” him for the losses. It sure feels different for him. The shine is definitely gone and the lines feel old and tired. But he’s still got a lot of grassroots support in the base even as elected have had enough, not because of an insurrection or stolen classified documents but instead because they didn’t win last Tuesday. The race for the GOP nomination will be a long and bruising one and frankly that’s a game Trump plays pretty well. My guess is this could get crowded quickly. Buckle up!
And Murphy, not to be outdone, there’s movement on the Dem side too!
MURPHY: Yup, this Presidential primary calendar battle is going to be important and fascinating. BTW, a hint to the growing squad of GOP candidates now plotting to run against Trump in 2024… change the GOP primaries to proportional delegate awards. That would be a disaster for Trump.
On that note, we’ll be back soon!
Murphy and Gibbs