So How Far Can the Dems Take Dobbs?
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, first off, we should note that because the internet is a series of tubes (hat tip to the late Alaska Senator Ted Stevens), it is most likely that your recent newsletter got stuck inside of one of them this past week and for that we apologize. Hopefully this one gets through to you and, in case you did want to read our take before this week’s primaries, be sure to give it a read here.
(MURPHY: I blame Putin!)
Now, on to what actually did happen on Tuesday, and, well, it was a lot! We give our take on what it all means for the Republicans’ hopes for a red wave come November and for the Dems’ strategy going forward. Let’s begin!
So After Tuesday’s Results, Now What?
GIBBS: Well, another week and another special election that didn’t turn out how the GOP thought it would. Republicans were pretty confident about winning the 19th district in New York Tuesday. The DCCC even shared polling that showed Democrat Pat Ryan down, but they wanted to be able to show the race was close and the political environment was trending better. But what we got was a bit of a surprise and, dare I say it, a narrative change about the 2022 election! While I don't want to over interpret special elections, now that we’ve seen this happen on more than one occasion, Murphy, when we look back on this election cycle, the most important day will be May 2, 2022. That was the day Politico reported and posted the draft Supreme Court decision overturning Roe vs. Wade by Samuel Alito. We can see from that moment, voter enthusiasm on the Democratic side has skyrocketed and voter registration, particularly among women, has been on a big increase. And in just 5 weeks, Joe Biden’s approval rating is up more than 5% (from a rock bottom of 36.8% on July 20th to today’s average of 41.9%). Taken together, we are seeing a perceptible shift in the political environment from just a few months ago. Compare that environment to November 2021, where a Dem loses the VA Governor’s race by 2% after Biden wins the Commonwealth by 10% in 2020, and you’ve got a big, big change (more on this in a bit). Murphy, what do you see your party doing to shift the momentum?
MURPHY: House Special elections are always over-interpreted Gibbsie, so all the mouth breathing over NY 19 is no surprise to me. But… in a wave year with a non-bananas candidate the Republicans should have won a true swing district like the 19th. Maybe there were local aspects, maybe there were not. But we know after a ton of polling, the KS primary and now this, that Roe energy is real and the Dem win in NY 19 is a real sign of increasing Democratic political strength. Enough to save the House? I remain dubious.
GIBBS: Well, it seems it’s alarm pulling time at the Republican National Committee. It's not just Mitch McConnell who is worried about where the Senate might go. Politico got hold of a leaked donor call this week where RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel was begging donors for some dough to help salvage the Senate. If there’s one downside to this shift right now, it’s that you hate when the other side gets a signal like an election loss that things aren't going well, and that their strategy isn't working. It’s abundantly clear that the dog caught the car on Roe vs. Wade, but it's also abundantly clear that the dog has no idea now what to do with the car. It's definitely a wakeup call for them 10 weeks out. A lot of history is still on the GOP side versus fresh data on the Democratic side. It goes back to the fact that there are going to be some campaigns that are run well that lose, and there are going to be some campaigns that are not run well that win. But my guess is that this is going to be a really interesting cycle where good campaigns could pull out really close races that defy a lot of political gravity and history. It’s becoming clear, especially on the Senate side that we are likely to look back years from now and think had a few campaigns in swing states had their you know what together, they would have won. Candidates matter, but good campaigns do too.
MURPHY: When will these GOP candidates and officials learn that at these wealthy donor events those nice people walking around on sore feet serving Oysters Rockefeller both:
1.) own iPhones with built-in sound recorders and
2.) are slinging those fancy canapés for MINIMUM WAGE.
(OK, this leaked tape came from a conference call, but still…)
But you are right, Gibbsie, this whole GOP in Money Trouble narrative is a big wake up call for Republicans. Have no doubt a money panic is growing in GOP circles. And like the old West Texas adage that the cure for high oil prices is high oil prices, the best cure for money raising problems is a panic with months left to surge fundraising.
GIBBS: Another thing I'd point out to that has Democrats gleeful is on Tuesday abortion was impactful even in a state that quickly did what it needed to do to protect the right to choose. In Kansas, the referendum was existential. What was on the ballot there was are they going to change to something draconian or are they not? So, the fate of that right in the state was in front of them in a way that was slightly different in New York. We now know that at least in both of those races that the issue is quite salient for Democrats, regardless of the state. It doesn't mean it’s the only thing that they can run on, but as we head into September of 2022, it’s hard to underscore just how different things are from six months ago, and particularly from almost 12 months ago.
Our Hacks Midterm Meter Update
GIBBS: If we check in on the numbers and look at the difference at where that environment is versus where it was a year ago, looking at New York or New Jersey and Virginia, you've got about a 12 to 12.5 difference in the environment. Joe Biden's winning Virginia by 10. And then a Democrat is losing Virginia by two. Right now, you're seeing that difference cut in some places in half and in other places to nearly zero. While I would still probably bet money that the House is going to go to Republicans, the idea that we're talking about a 35 to 40 seat wave just doesn't feel all that likely as we sit here. Caveat, we've still got 73 days before an election and we know things can change. We've also seen Democratic voter enthusiasm up and Joe Biden's approval rating is getting better. The Congressional ballot seems to be telling us a lot of different things. But it seems to be showing something much closer than what we thought. There was a point in late July/early August where a steady advantage for Republicans started to become even, on average. So, what does that mean? On the House side, you still make Republicans the favorite largely because there's enough seats that Trump won in 2020 that likely could flip and they only need five to flip. They're still the odds-on favorite. On the Senate side, encouraging signs for Democrats outweigh Republicans, burdened by their poor (quality and fundraising) candidates. The only admonition to Democrats is you're going to start to see polls in places like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada become much, much closer because as we get closer to Election Day. Republicans are likely going to start acting like Republicans. The reason why these are swing states is because they're very used to having close elections. But I think there's a lot more optimism on the Democratic side these days about November. A number of these gubernatorial races are going to be hugely important and that's where abortion may well play the largest role because the Supreme Court decision devolved this to the states. Murphy, what say you?
MURPHY: My experience with the noble opposition party has long been that when Democrats think things are bad, they actually are not as bad as they think. And Democrats gurgle with joy because they think things are great, they actually are not as good as they think. I’ve also learned to ignore most candidate horse race polls until after Labor Day. Let’s see what Oct 1 looks like.
GIBBS: One last thought out of New York. For all the worries of (and they're legitimate) about the erosion of our democracy, it does have to make you feel good that Carl Paladino lost his race in New York. If you did receive the newsletter on Tuesday, you read that I believed he was likely to win. So now it’s good to know that campaigning on Hitler's leadership qualities and the advocating of the execution of the Attorney General of the United States cannot fall on deaf ears, and that Republicans can decide to go a different route. We're going to try to send this this part of the memo to Elise Stefanik so that she can understand this as well since she went out there and endorsed Crazy Carl. Murphy, what does this say about the appetite for crazy in the GOP or is this just a New York thing?
MURPHY: Gibbs, you crafty spin doctor. You turn a wrong prediction into a Day of National Triumph! Well played Sir. But I’m right there with you. Hooray that Paladino lost. He did have his own pre-Trump era baggage from earlier races which didn’t help (you don’t earn the moniker “Crazy Carl” in GOP circles where crazy is the norm without a real gift for saying really stupid things.) I’m also happy Laura Loomer lost her primary in Florida. So the already wrong CW that the craziest candidate will always win a GOP primary is proven wrong (again).
Finally, what a win in the big “east side vs. west side” battle royal between Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney. The CW had a tight race with no shortage of rumors that Maloney’s aggressive effort was going to zotch the aging Nadler (an argument Maloney was not shy about making). But the wily old pro Nadler crushed his old ally with a huge lopsided win. Proof again that a high turnout inclined base on the West Side of Manhattan is a nuclear weapon in NYC city Democratic politics. Nice job, Jerry!
GIBBS: Before we go, a quick update from Alaska, where we're almost done with the ballot counting. Palin is still growing her lead ever so slightly in second place, now up 5,788 votes over third place Republican Nick Begich III. Remember, if Begich can’t overtake Palin in second place, in ranked choice voting, third gets eliminated and we redistribute Begich’s votes to either Palin or to Democrat Mary Peltola. The real question then will be how do Alaska Republicans behave on rank choice voting when the candidate that gets eliminated, likely Nick Begich III, ran a very hard campaign against Sarah Palin. Did Begich’s voters simply leave their second-choice blank? Right now, Peltola has a more that 14,000 vote advantage and her going to Congress remains a possibility.
MURPHY: I think – as noted in this newsletter earlier – that Democrat Mary Peltola may well prevail in the Alaska Special election, thanks to ranked choice voting. The win would only be in the special election to finish the last months of the late Rep. Don Young’s term, but it would be a huge psychological win for the D's. Ranked choice voting takes forever to count, but so far Pelota’s lead is holding thanks to second choice ballots (including, as you note above, from voters who supported anti-Palin conservative Republican Nick Begich as their first choice). We’ll know soon if she can squeak by leading GOP contender Sarah Palin.
We’ll see you next week!
Murphy and Gibbs