Showdown in Pennsylvania
Hello Hackaroos,
We know we said just a couple weeks ago that the big Walker-Warnock debate in Georgia was the biggest political event of the season (and it does look like a better than expected performance by Walker and a less than expected one by Warnock may have stabilized the Walker campaign). Now comes another big debate bookend as we are now hours from the NEW and IMPROVED Biggest Political Event in this campaign: the debate showdown in Pennsylvania tonight between John Fetterman and Dr. Oz. We give our popcorn guide to what we can expect and then welcome the UK’s new Prime Minister, the Murphy-endorsed and Right Honorable Rishi Sunak.
Please also continue to share your questions and comments for us to react to in our now always-open mailbox!
Let’s begin!
Our Popcorn Guide To PA
@hacksontapnewsletter: You may need a stiff drink too.
MURPHY: So, Gibbs, as we pointed out in prior newsletters, the era of the Big Critical Debate is back! We saw how Warnock’s stumbles gave Herschel Walker a comeback in Georgia, and how Mike Lee’s shaky debate provided momentum to Independent candidate Evan McMullin in Utah. Tonight, it’s Pennsylvania. Lots of important factors here. Oz has been beaten pretty silly as New Jersey carpetbagger and puppy killer extraordinaire. But a strong serious of TV attacks on Fetterman’s liberal (remember that term? Somehow the same media that calls every Republican “right-wing” now calls liberals progressives. And God forbid they ever say “left wing,” but I digress) policy ideas on crime have closed the race. Meanwhile, Fetterman – who had a very bumpy performance in his primary debate – has a ton at stake tonight. Can he fend off Oz’s crime attacks and most importantly, can he make is recovery from a stroke a narrative of grit, determination and empathy for others who’ve faced a tough set back? Either candidate can do very well tonight; Fetterman with a candor and determination about his medical experience that will leave the whole state rooting for him, or Oz with a smooth performance that re-connects him to his adopted state (remember, the good doctor made a very good living as on camera TV talent for a long time…). I’ll be watching Gibbs and my big question, is who comes out of the debate with the best new narrative: the TV Wizard or Oz, or John Fetterman, the Comeback Giant!?
GIBBS: Murphy, we’ve talked and written a lot about debates this cycle. In some places, they haven’t happened at all, in other places there may be one joint encounter despite the race’s importance. It felt a little like time had passed debates by, but then came Georgia. And before I dig into the big Pennsylvania debate, I should also note that tonight we'll have showdowns in New York between Governor Kathy Hochul and GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin, in Michigan, between Tudor Dixon and Governor Gretchen Whitmer and in Colorado, between Senator Michael Bennet and Joe O'Dea. But, this debate in Pennsylvania is nothing short of gigantic. To start, let’s set the stage appropriately: this is the lynchpin race for BOTH Democrats and Republicans to either maintain or gain control of the U.S. Senate. A Dem win results in a pickup of a seat controlled now by Republicans and means Dems have a small but important cushion in the gravity defying exercise of controlling the Senate next year. For Republicans, a win here means they’re A LOT closer to retaking control of the Senate by winning two of the three Senate races in Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia. So, control of the Senate goes right through PA. The candidates also each brings a unique set of challenges to tonight’s event. Fetterman, according to polls, has led throughout this race and the size of some of his purported leads gave the impression that this race was largely over. The late summer, though, has seen a momentum shift for Dr. Oz and this race has closed significantly. A poll yesterday by CNN reassured some Dems that Fetterman was still in a good position leading 51% to 45% among likely voters. Tonight’s task is clear for both sides. For Fetterman, he’s been pummeled with ads on his stance on crime. He’s going to have to reassure PA voters he’ll do what it takes to keep them safe. He’s also going to have to talk about the economy and inflation, the issue that dominates the agenda according to yesterday’s poll. 44% of voters say the economy and inflation is the most important issue for them in deciding who to vote for in 2022, far ahead of abortion (19%) and the 12% who cite voting rights and election integrity. For Fetterman, too, the issue of his health and ability to do the job will be front and center. A stroke in May took him off the campaign trail for two months and this venue will give him the opportunity to show the state he’s very much up to the task of representing Pennsylvania in the U.S. Senate. For Dr. Oz, while he has some momentum in the race, the CNN poll yesterday shows his negatives continue to be sky high. Fully 55% of likely voters have an unfavorable view of his candidacy. For all that’s been said and written about the whacky candidacy of Doug Mastriano, more people think unfavorably of Oz then they do of Mastriano (53%). And 51% of voters think Dr. Oz is too close to Donald Trump when only 38% of voters say the same about Fetterman and Joe Biden. It’s why Oz is running commercials in the most important media market in the state, Philadelphia, taking on the “extremism” of both parties. Lastly, Oz is swimming against a BIG wave created by the Governor’s race as Josh Shapiro leads Mastriano in the CNN polling by 15 points, 56% to 41%. Murphy, Oz has his work cut out for him tonight, doesn’t he?
MURPHY: CNN polls tend to be Democratic Happy Chow. I’m dubious. I think it’s a one or two point race at most and that’s bad news for Fetterman in a wave year. And while we’ve debated is this midterm really “different” – a debate we have every midterm with the CW media always arguing every midterm is different” because it is a lot more fun and click worthy to breathlessly cover every new campaign discovery from the internet, to micro-targeting to “soccer moms” as a Big New Discovery that Changes Everything – I’ve argued that a wave is coming and this year won’t be that different. Maybe the Roe energy, which is real, will tighten a few races and maybe the glut of chuckleheaded GOP Senate (and a few House) candidates will hold back overall GOP gains, but all that said, I’m sticking with my view that this year isn’t different enough. Midterm normal plus inflation plus Biden being seen by many voters as terrible at running the economy is a recipe for a good GOP midterm, even with no shortage of lame candidates. That’s because in a protest election like this, the voting isn’t about the local candidate, there are bigger forces at work. So I think the R’s win the House and, the Senate. (I even will not be surprised if the Dems have some shocker loses. Patty Murray Call Your Office.)
Source: NBC News
GIBBS: Overall, the political atmospherics still feel the same – moving toward Republicans, if you look at the latest NBC poll. Republicans say they’re more enthusiastic about voting while the overall electorate has never scored higher in an NBC poll about voting in a midterm election. We are starting to see some giant turnout numbers in early voting (looking at you, Georgia!) that could definitely alter what happens in the end. It still feels like Democrats are in a lot of ways fighting the environment right now. Even in very blue states like New York, the Governor looks suddenly vulnerable as the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee suddenly finds himself in a race the Cook Political Report moved to toss up yesterday, as Republicans threw even more money at trying to defeat Rep. Sean Maloney.
MURPHY: Yup, the elephants are on the march. Here are a few places on my potential upset list, if things break hard R:
NY Governor: As you mentioned. Still a long shot, but…
CO Senate: Michael Bennett is a better than average Dem Senator in my view (rock solid to his great credit on charter schools), but Joe O’Dea is the real thing and an upset win by O’Dea would be a vital teaching moment for the GOP.
Sen Patty Murray losing in Washington. Another true upset, but the race is closing.
Don “General Madness” Bolduc should lose the NH Senate race against vulnerable Maggie Hassan, but it could be alarmingly close for those of us who believe that even crazy times do not deserve crazy Senators.
Two GOP upsets to watch out for, both unique as they are driven by local factors far disconnected from the national Biden debate:
89 year old Sen Chuck Grassley is in trouble against impressive Dem candidate former Admiral Mike Franken. My gut is the wave will save Chuck, but Iowans have been known to take old animals that can no longer work on the farm out behind the barn.
Utah Senator Mike Lee is in real trouble against Indy Evan McMullin. Neither candidate is a Biden supporter, so this race is about Jan. 6 and Lee’s hyper-partisan ineffectiveness. It’s really close and Evan might pull off the upset of the year. (Disclosure, I’m working for Evan’s superPAC; he is a friend.)
So wonder over this: two GOP incumbents shocking loose on election night. One to Democratic moderate, and one to a true independent who will not caucus with either party. The Senate could get very, very interesting indeed.
The Return of Murphy’s Tory Corner
MURPHY: Well, here’s my biggest takeaway from the latest Tory leadership battle: a Murphy endorsement shouldn’t be trifled with! Readers might remember I was for Rishi all along! But now Rishi really has his work cut out for him; the Tories are in the polling sewer and his Parliamentary Party is full of Dreadnaught class schemers who think the Game of Thrones Red Wedding wasn’t nearly bloody and violent enough. Still Rishi is one competent cat on policy, and he has ultra-low expectations now. We’ll see. In a sidebar, kudos to the Tories. Of all the western right of center parties, they are the best at organically attracting people of color, not with photo op symbolism, but with real support in immigrant communities. Rishi is now the first Tory PM of color. Well done. The GOP, post Trump, could learn a real lesson for the Tories. Take a look at the Sunak cabinet and you’ll see what I mean. It's the real deal, and their vote base reflects it.
GIBBS: I really thought you had the ability to get Boris Johnson back over the line. I will just say that we are on the cusp of the third different Tory Prime Minister in just seven weeks in the UK. Murphy, instead of the country passing the Prime Ministership around like uneaten chips in the pub and choosing this week’s leader via closed elections of the party elite, I think it’s past time call for a general election and let all the people decide!
MURPHY: That’s the Labour spin and it’s a smart move. But I think the Brits want to give Rishi a moment to make a few strong moves to stabilize things and calm the markets now, and see how he does. Then take it to the voters. As my UK friends often say when watching frantic Yanks hustle about, often it is wisest to take a sip of gin and think things through. “Why rush?”, they say. Bloody right.
We’ll see you soon and don’t forget to leave your questions for the mailbag!
Murphy and Gibbs