Seven Big Questions for the Big Day
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, the day is finally here! Our big message today for all of you: vote and tell all of your friends of all parties to do the same! And in case they have any questions, we bring you seven questions on our minds as we watch the results come in today (and probably the next few days).
Let’s begin!
Credit: Getty Images / Hill Street Studios
#1: Will the Youngsters Show Up?
GIBBS: Dems need a monster turnout for younger voters in 2022. Without it, it’s very hard to see Dems surviving this environment. Polling says they’re energized, but can Dems really count on Presidential level turnout in a mid-term election? The late public polling that gave Dems optimism going into the weekend was modeled on bigger turnout among younger voters. If they show up with bigger numbers, it will go a long way towards making Tuesday a better night. If not…
MURPHY: That’s the key, and it’s not just a matter of the Dems getting slightly better than usual off year turnout by younger voters… they need a historic surge. Paint me as dubious. It’ll rise, but big enough to overcome Inflaftionzilla? I doubt it.
@hacksontapnewsletter: No need to read a poll for that.
#2: What Should We Make of the Early Vote?
GIBBS: When people get tired of getting on the endless poller-coaster that each election cycle creates, they turn to early vote numbers for white smoke about Tuesday’s results. Be careful. It gives you a good sense of early enthusiasm, but I don’t think it’s a very good predictor of the outcome. I’ve been watching Georgia’s early vote since it started. It’s running more than 20% ahead of 2018’s historic midterm tally. Polls have shown the GOP to be more energized than Dems. I think we are in for a massive turnout when all the votes are counted in the 2022 election, but the early vote numbers in and of itself don’t demonstrably favor one side, even if Twitter says it does.
MURPHY: Agree. Most over-rated pre-election analysis tool in politics. Like polling overthink, stop trying to tell the future. Wait for the count.
#3: Is there a Wild Card Senate race out there?
GIBBS: We’ve rightly been watching PA, GA, and NV as the biggest, most important races for control of the Senate. But as we write this, AZ, WI, NC, CO, OH, NH and WA are also worth watching. Polls recently showed IA could be close and UT could surprise and elect an Independent. I think these races stay to form and no big surprises happen…I think. If one of them does happen, watch out for the wave.
MURPHY: A month ago I would have said Tim Ryan in Ohio, running great campaign and JD Vance is a clunker. But as the situation races toward midterm/bad inflation normal, that cookie seems to have crumbled. On the GOP side, watch Tiffany Smiley vs. Patty Murray for a big upset. (Even Bolduc in NH and Tudor Dixon in the MI Gov race have reportedly closed their gaps into potential upset territory.) Mark Kelly in AZ is in a close one too, not something observers thought six weeks ago.
@hacksontapnewsletter: The last check-in for Midterms polls! Now, on to America’s results. Let’s go, democracy!
#4: Where Does the GOP Really Stand in the House?
MURPHY: Crazy times demand a crazy House Republican conference. Tragic. My guess is they do well today and earn a double digit majority. Sadly, many of the best R Members (like Katko, Upton, Gonzalez are not coming back.).
GIBBS: Murphy, I think the over-under for seats gained by the GOP is probably 15-20, so for the purposes of this, let’s say 17. I think I’d take the over right now. This number would be bigger if Republicans hadn’t picked up 14 seats despite Biden’s win in 2020.
#5: How do the important Gov and Sec of State races in 2024 battleground Presidential races shake out?
GIBBS: I worry a lot about Arizona and Wisconsin. Right now, it wouldn’t surprise anyone now if Kari Lake didn’t win in AZ and bring with her Mark Finchem and polling has shown Wisconsin to be tough for Dems right now. Nevada could follow suit as well. I wish I were more hopeful but the atmospherics don’t feel great. The impact on 2024 and beyond could be significant.
MURPHY: TMI Gibbsie! I don’t want to make our Dem readers look for a building to jump off, but let me just say the Senate map in 2024 is very bad for the Democrats.
#6: What are the races to watch early?
MURPHY: Not Beto. But do watch some east coast Congressionals for early hints from places that should report fast. For example, NH-1 (eastern New Hampshire) is a fascinating race. Classic swing district. Savvy Dem incumbent, Chris Pappas. The GOP challenger, 25-year old Stefanik mini-me Karoline Leavitt beat a more (semi-) normal Republican front-runner to win the primary in an upset. She’s a wacko-bird, as McCain would say, sort of Trump+ on the scale (worked as very junior comms aide in his WH) and her positions edge into the outer burbs of MTG-ville. This race is a microcosm of the greater question posed this year: a swing district that wants to vote R in a midterm wave versus a classic bad GOP candidate who should not be able to win a mod, tilt pro-choice district like this… under the old “normal” rules. Yet this race is a coin toss, or worse. And it should report fast. If she’s winning big, look out Dems.
GIBBS: Below you’ll find the link to a map showing you when and where each state’s polls close. At 7 PM ET, the polls will close in VA, GA, SC, FL and the remaining areas of KY and IN. Pay close attention to the two tossup House races in Virginia (incumbent Rep. Elaine Luria in VA-2 and incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanburger) for an early look at how the House may fare, plus we’ll get our first look at the Gov and Senate races in Georgia. Just 30 minutes later, polls will close in Ohio and NC as we get the first glimpse of the tight but Republican favored Senate seats. Trump won both states in 2020 (Ohio +8, NC +1). A big swath of races take place in states with polls closing at 8 PM including big contests in NH, PA, MI, RI and TX.
#7: Biggest Upset?
GIBBS: Oregon hasn’t elected a Republican Governor in 40 years, but I think Betsy Johnson, a former state senator running as an independent, pulls enough Dem votes away from Tina Kotek to give Christine Drazan the win. If that happens, the down ballot impact on the two open House seats (OR-4 and OR-5) and the newly created Sixth Congressional district seat could favor big GOP pickups.
MURPHY: There may be several… Even Zeldin in NY Gov race is possible…
How to watch the results…
GIBBS: As promised, a helpful guide to poll closings! But do keep in mind, a lot of places will count slowly and it will likely be a few days until all the dust settles and longer still if Georgia goes to a December 6th runoff.
Source: 270toWin.com
We’ll be back with our reaction to the results as they come in.
Happy Voting Everyone!
Murphy and Gibbs