RIP, Your Majesty + What To Make of The Debate Over Debates
Hello Hackaroos!
We start this edition of the newsletter on a somber note with the passing of Queen Elizabeth II and celebrate the extraordinary life she lived. We then turn back to American politics and now that we have officially entered the big sprint to Election Day, it’s time for the nominees to really face the voters and that means the debate is now raging over… well, debates. We debate that ourselves. Then we share some tidbits from the Sunshine State, give an update on Utah’s increasingly important U.S. Senate race and one of our Hacks returns to the White House this week (hint: Murphy has been banned from there for years).
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Let’s begin!
RIP, Your Majesty
MURPHY: An extraordinary life lived with great grace and honor. RIP, Your Majesty.
GIBBS: Truly remarkable. She served as Queen for more than 70 years. During that time, she’s seen 15 Prime Ministers (greeting a new one in just this last week) and 13 U.S. Presidents. For many in the world, she’s the only British monarch they’ve known. What an incredible life that saw so much. Her funeral will be an extraordinary event over the course of the next week.
The Great Debate Over Debates
MURPHY: Well Gibbsie, we’re now past Labor Day and have entered the final stretch to November (be sure to check out our latest podcast on the Midterm Sprint to get you really in the mood… sorry Gibbs, we missed you!). But now that the Labor Day starting gun has fired, the Great Debate on Debates has officially begun. As this Politico piece points out, right now only general election debates have been confirmed in two competitive Senate races, Arizona and Colorado. Though it looks like in Pennsylvania and Georgia, the candidates are getting close. Gibbs, where do you stand in this great debate?
GIBBS: Sorry to miss the pod this week… I was busy preparing my outfit for the White House. So I guess the big question in 2022, with tens and sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars being poured into these campaigns to get messages out, do debates even matter? I know from having negotiated debates for several of the campaigns I worked on in the past, it’s always a game of chicken, with one side wanting a huge number to try and prove their willingness to mix it up. For me, I certainly remember being on some challenger races where there's real upside to debating if you're running against an incumbent. It lets you stand on a stage and have the viewership look at you and see a Senator because they look at the other side and see an actual Senator. So if I were the challenger, I think there can be a real benefit to letting the audience visualize you doing the job you’re running for (though I’m not sure Herschel Walker in Georgia is really up to the task).
MURPHY: Debates are funny, in some races they are vital yet in others they don’t make a dent. In my experience the keys to debates really mattering are: 1.) a new, untested candidate, 2.) a high profile race people actually care about and 3.) they need to be on real television (not radio, or the local PBS affiliate at 8 am Sunday morning). Debates both serve as a newsmaking machine – gaffes, bad answers, malaprops and factual errors can all blow up in subsequent media coverage – and (if televised live on a strong station) a powerful platform for candidates to break through and connect with, or offend, voters. I remember Mitt Romney’s Governor race in 2002; the debates were widely watched and critical. That was the real moment when Mitt broke through the baggage of his 1994 loss in the Senate race and really closed the deal.
GIBBS: Yeah, they can be high stakes stuff under the right circumstances with a real electoral payoff. They put pressure on candidates and campaigns to get ready, think through and execute a strategy. As you said, they can also show weaknesses and put a real spotlight on mistakes like no other series of events really can in a campaign. Some candidates will know they have to show up once, but they’ll be fighting like Hell to get the debate scheduled opposite a college or pro football game that will take eyeballs away from something that has less upside in their view. For me, you’ve got to know the format that’s best for your candidate to succeed in or these can be a real loser for you. Do you have it moderated by the media and if so by whom? Do you take questions directly from voters? Do you get to ask your opponent a direct question? Always lots of ideas and pitfalls to strategize about in these debates.
MURPHY: Debates are also big tactical choices. Generally, the candidate in the stronger position wishes to avoid debates because they are risky if you are winning. Why allow something to happen? If you are ahead, something good happening at a debate won’t help you, you are on track to win anyway. But something bad happening can hurt you. Challengers – or any candidate who is behind – need debates as a critical moment to shake up a race and get back in the hunt. So, incumbents often use tricks like trying for non-televised debates, or at odd hours to mute their impact. Another trick is to try to bury a debate, but having it pre-Labor Day so the “will you debate issue” fades out before the race heats up.
GIBBS: It will be interesting to watch a lot of these statewide Senate campaigns on the GOP side, given Sen. McConnell’s comment on the lacking candidate quality he sees. Normally, a challenger in Georgia or Arizona would want to be on that stage but that doesn’t seem to be the case with this class of candidates. Also, for Dems wishing to push opponents on abortion, it can be a moment to really thrust the issue front and center by asking their opponent something like “why do you think a rape victim shouldn’t have access to abortion?” rather than just talking to a television audience. For those reluctant to debate, can the opposing campaigns really make ducking debates an issue? I mean, Murphy, it isn’t a real campaign until you send some intern dressed up in a duck costume or a chicken suit to the other campaign’s event with a big sign calling them out for not wanting to debate! Ah, the good ol’ days!
MURPHY: This cycle the most interesting debate dance has been in Pennsylvania where front-running Democrat John Fetterman tried to shimmy out of debating, citing his recent stroke. Hapless GOP candidate Dr. Oz clumsily went on the attack, but Fetterman’s dodge was a step too far for the Pennsylvania media, which remembers the Fetterman campaign’s less than truthful response when Fetterman originally had his stroke. The normally adroit Fetterman campaign saw this caper turning sour fast and agreed to debate. Maybe it was all a very crafty plan to lower expectations. Regardless the Fetterman situation is an excellent example of my earlier point about campaigns in the lead seeing little upside in debating since more things can go wrong than go right, especially which a candidate like Fetterman whose performance in the primary debates was lackluster. What do you think, Gibbs?
GIBBS: Not surprisingly, I think the two most interesting races here are (you guessed it), Pennsylvania and Georgia! I think for Fetterman it is an undoubtedly important moment for him and his campaign to show voters he’s strong and healthy enough to do the job he’s running for in 2022. In Georgia, can Herschel Walker prove to voters he has what it takes to do the job of a Senator, given his lack of experience and, at times, odd statements on policy issues. I think his campaign made a real mistake having him skip the debates during the GOP primary that would have gotten him some practice and ready for what will now be more important events with potentially a lot more at stake. Look, he was always going to win the primary, so get him some reps when the stakes are low. For each, a good, not even great performance, could be a big deal as the expectations game is always played by reporters and campaigns. Additionally, I‘ll be interested to see how Mandela Barnes does with Ron Johnson or whether Cheri Beasley in NC or Tim Ryan in OH can use the platform to break through and show voters normally inclined to elect Republicans to take a chance on them. Will Blake Masters in AZ or Adam Laxalt in NV, maybe the toughest state for Dems to hold this cycle (along with Georgia) be willing to get in the debate ring with the incumbent? Normally, that would be an easy one to answer, but for some of these campaigns that have fired up their base denying election results, not many are eager to answer tough questions from reporters about their steadfast beliefs in the Big Lie when rallies and paid ads don’t require giving someone else time at the microphone to put your words to the truth test. Republicans will want to tie their opponents to Joe Biden, who’s approval is growing though it’s still in need of more help. All in all, I’m surprised there aren’t more debates scheduled thus far and there’s not as much time left to get them scheduled as you might think if you need to get a TV station to air it in a good time slot.
TIDBITS
Gibbs' View in the East Room of the White House on Wednesday
GIBBS: I’ll start with my visit to the White House this week for the big unveiling of the Obamas’ portraits. It was great to get the gang back together and, no Murphy, despite what you might have read, even the Biden gang was happy to be there too. Michelle, as usual, delivered with a nice jab at Trump, who may be doing his portrait surrounded by Top Secret documents at Mar-A-Lago. And speaking of Florida, there were a couple folks in the room on Wednesday working on the Crist campaign, and for me Murphy, this week’s interesting polling comes from the Sunshine State, where two polls showed a close Governor’s race and another showed an also equally close Senate race. One set of those polls was done by the dynamic bipartisan duo of Tony Fabrizio (Trump’s pollster) and John Anzalone (Biden’s pollster) for AARP. It’s been a loooong time since a Democrat won in FL, so these really caught some attention. Charlie Crist is a former Governor running against incumbent Ron DeSantis while Val Demings is taking on GOP Senator Marco Rubio. She’s raising big bucks and can excite the base. The biggest challenge here is the very wide money gap favoring DeSantis in the Governor’s race, though I am sure he hopes to save a good chunk of that war chest for a possible White House run in 2024. It’s also a state that’s ripe to see some fired up voters on abortion and choice. It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on for the next two months and see if Dems can make Florida a more competitive state once again. Murphy, what do you make of where things stand in the Sunshine State?
MURPHY: As an old Florida hand, I’ve learned to count on the Florida Democrats screwing up. They seem to have a gift for it. But Democratic Senate candidate Val Demings is a strong candidate with an Orlando base (useful in statewide races). She’s also proven to be a strong fundraiser and recent polling shows a very tight race. Florida is also less pro-life than most other lean red states. All that said, in a GOP year Marco Rubio has the advantage here. In the gubernatorial race, Charlie Crist (who has managed to evolve over the years from a GOP Attorney General nicknamed “Chain Gang Charlie” to a GOP Governor who is famous in Republican hack circles for swearing his neutrality in the 2008 GOP Presidential primary, only to double-cross Romney and endorse John McCain) to a Democratic Member of Congress and now Florida Democrats' Great Hope against rising R star Gov Ron DeSantis. Charlie is – to be kind – a capable pol, yet so is DeSantis whose campaign war chest dwarfs Crist’s in an expensive TV driven state. Bet on Uncle Ron, though Crist may make it a spirited contest.
Another quick update on Utah’s fascination Senate race. (Disclosure: candidate Evan McMullin is a pal of mine and I’m working on the SuperPAC supporting him.). So to recap, incumbent Senator Mike Lee is in trouble; he survived a primary challenge with about 59% of the vote (with nearly 40% of Utah Republicans voting against him.) Utah’s Democrats purposely voted not to have a candidate this year, giving independent candidate Evan McMullin a clear lane to run as the alternative to Lee. A former GOP national security advisor on Capitol Hill and ex-CIA clandestine services agent, McMullin is no liberal, but is a rule of law minded reformer. A new poll from McMullin’s campaign by the afore mentioned respected pollster John Anzalone shows the race a tie… with McMullin one point ahead. This race is now in play and we’ll keep an eye on it.
And here’s our regular check on the Midterm Meter…
We’ll see you next week!
Murphy and Gibbs