Reading Between Biden’s Polling
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, for this week, we’ve got two very different topics, but they both sound about the same: the Poles and the polls. Has President Biden made his first mistake in denying fighter jets to the Poles to get Russian jets to the Ukrainians? And what should you know about the latest polling numbers? What do they mean for President Biden’s agenda and the midterms?
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Let’s begin…
The Saga Over MiG Fighter Jets and The Poles: What Went Wrong?
MURPHY: Well, Gibbsie, I’ve been very positive about President Biden’s Russia-Ukraine moves up until this point, but I think we’re seeing his first stumble on the politics of it all. I’m talking about his dodge and duck on allowing Poland to send Ukraine MiG-29 fighters. The Poles want to do it, the Ukrainians know how to fly and service the Russian-built MiGs and yet… Biden is blocking it. Now I know there are technical issues with converting NATO-formatted planes and a few fighter planes won’t solve the war for the Ukraine, but the rationale for not sending the planes – it irritates Putin and escalates the situation – is a bad move. I won’t bleat on about the strategic problem here other than to note that Putin escalates the situation every day – but the political optics are bad. Biden cannot win a situation where the only party who can escalate is Putin. I know, I know, the knee jerk answer is “so you want to start WWIII then.” Well, the fact is we’ve had mutual nuclear deterrence for many decades; neither side wants a nuclear exchange, but nobody can win. It’s all about tiny escalations until one side is deterred. Biden should have sent the planes; Reagan would have. And Reagan beat the Soviets.
GIBBS: Well, Murphy, when this administration has focused on quiet diplomacy, I think the results have been big and very beneficial to everybody involved. When Biden was out sharing intelligence, the Ukrainians wanted to tell the world that we were overhyping things and that there was no need to cause panic. We now clearly know that's not the case. I think what made this tricky was Zelensky made this a very public ask. The Poles wanted to donate the planes by sending them to Ramstein Air Base, a U.S. Air Force base in Germany and avoid having Putin think the provocateur was Poland. Clearly, the White House had concerns that planes under U.S. control right before they entered Ukrainian air space to fight Russians had a grave potential for escalation.
MURPHY: I understand your point, but NATO nations are pumping weapons in. The Turks keep sending up flying killer drones, and there is no mushroom cloud over Ankara. And the Brits have just escalated things a bit on their own; they’ve started shipping the nastiest piece of work to come out of Q’s workshop since the flame-throwing wheelchair; the Starstreak missile. This shoulder launched version of a soccer riot head butt, but shoots three guided tungsten darts, each explosive, at Mach 3 toward whatever airborne nuisance – be it plane or helicopter – that Johnny Ukraine is pissed at. To cap it off, these beauties are manufactured in Belfast, of all places, so you know they are assembled with loving care… and a bottomless pit of boiling, suppressed Irish rage to karmically top them off. These flying Ghidorahs are the perfect gift for a civilian killing invader. I hope the Brits send a lot.
Despite the bungle on the MiGs, I am happy to see the allies are hoping to send the Ukrainians more heavy duty, longer range air defense systems. There is some ex-Soviet SAM hardware still around in NATO land so the Ukrainian military could put those quickly and effectively to work. And time is of the essence.
With Putin now talking about poison gas, I hope Biden’s new case of jitters doesn’t win out. He needs to understand that, behind 40 years of nuclear bluster, the Russians are smart and logical. (In Syria 200+ Russian Army sourced mercs made a heavy run at a small US Special Forces camp. When U.S. airpower was done, there were about 200 fewer Russians. Again, no mushroom cloud over Chicago.) Now nobody wants out of control escalation. That is the nightmare. So don’t attack Russia or pour NATO troops into Ukraine. But, small, slow, controlled escalation is a strategy and when you are the stronger power by far, it is an important part of winning. Biden is doing it well with economic power. A bit of upping the military supply game is in order as well. Political strength works. Both at home and in dealing with a cold-hearted adversary like Putin and his gang.
From the Poles to the Polls…
GIBBS: Faithful readers of this newsletter (that’s all of you right?) will know we’ve talked a lot about Joe Biden’s poll numbers over the past couple of weeks. Going into the State of the Union at the beginning of March, Joe Biden’s poll numbers were, in one word, dismal. His approvals in the high 30s to low 40s, with disapprovals in the mid-50s. The right track/wrong track was, well, all wrong. We wondered what might happen with a big TV audience and a really good speech that met the moment we were facing. State of the Union speech bumps are, in most cases, a thing of the past. Those big TV audiences simply aren’t as big as they once were and political polarization has kept big approval bumps in check given fewer and fewer voters are up for grabs and willing to change their minds. If anything, I wrote that if we were to see any “bounce” of sorts it could be around the focused leadership Americans have seen in this President’s actions toward Russia after their unprovoked invasion of Ukraine just five days before Biden’s speech to the nation. After all, Biden’s numbers in many of those polls around the issue of the handling of Russia and Ukraine were actually lower than his overall dismal numbers.
Our first evidence came a week ago and it was a stunner. The NPR/PBS/Marist poll showed a 7-point jump in Joe Biden’s approval combined with 4-point drop in his disapproval rating. But, was this an outlier? A trend? Only time would tell.
Well, a week later we have a slightly clearer picture. In 8 major national polls, all taken before that State of the Union on March 1, President Biden’s average approval rating was 40.8%, while his average disapproval came in at 54.5%, leaving him with a net of -13.7. That net is great if you’re a PGA golfer, but bad if you’re the President of the United States.
In the 7 major national polls taken and released after the President’s speech and during the escalation of fighting in Ukraine, his numbers have improved a bit. Biden’s average approval is up 2.5% to 43.3%, while his disapproval has shrunk by almost 4% to 50.7%. His net negative approval score has been cut from -13.7 to -7.4. Yes, that’s still professional golf territory, but it’s some improvement. Is this just margin of error stuff? Again, only time will tell. Today’s Wall Street Journal poll looked a lot like Biden’s mid-February numbers.
So don’t get me wrong, I’m not here to tell you everything is great or even all that good with the President’s overall political standing. But it does look as if President Biden’s political standing over the past two weeks has shown improvement. There’s still a lot of work to be done here, but you have to start somewhere and Biden looks to have done just that.
Will it hold? Will the numbers of 7.9% (the latest 12-month inflation figure) scuttle any gains? Will the fact that gas, according to AAA, is now 79 cents more per gallon in the United States since Putin’s tanks rolled across the Ukrainian border on February 24th pull these numbers back to their dismal territory? All valid questions. We will see more polling and let the numbers tell the story. And, fret not, we will be updating this as we head towards those important elections in November.
MURPHY: I agree Gibbsie, he is creeping up. Not along and probably not enough, but the wheels are creaking a bit and that is welcome news for the Democrats. The problem he faces is headwinds that can stop that progress and push the numbers back his other way. Biden has three headwind problems:
1.) Inflation. Latest numbers are out – a poll of sorts – and they are grim. Inflation is now the highest since 1982! (The year I started doing politics, so a long time ago. We had a GOP president that year and I remember the midterms well. We got hammered.)
2.) Ukraine. He’s done well, but it’s a high wire in many ways. And I saw a toe slip on the MiGs, per above, which worried me. Still, I think he’ll do ok in the end and I sure hope so for all of us.
3.) His own damn party. His lefty AOC wing is a heavy anchor around his neck. They aren’t helping and have a flair for acting as Kevin McCarthy’s most effective campaign auxiliary. And the Biden White House’s struggles with communications doesn’t make it better.
Hope that gave you some good cocktail chatter for the weekend.
See you on Tuesday!
Murphy and Gibbs