RACES TO WATCH AND A POPCORN GUIDE OF DEBATES TO SEE
Hello Hackaroos!
Well, we know we’ve spent a lot of time focusing on our “Final Four” Senate races (and even more on Georgia and Pennsylvania), but for this issue, we wanted to focus on some of the races that are getting less attention. Then, get out your popcorn, because we dive into some of the big debates that are finally happening (or some that have recently happened) in some of the big battleground races around the country. Plus, some tidbits.
Let’s begin!
THE OTHER RACES WE’RE WATCHING
Getty Images / Hill Street Studios
MURPHY: So Gibbsie, let’s walk through a few other interesting races. These contests are not getting the attention of the big three Senate races (and the under covered Nevada Senate race.) I’ll start with a few gubernatorial races. In my native Michigan it looked like trouble earlier this year for incumbent Democrat Gretchen Whitmer, especially in a potential big GOP year. But the GOP put on the Keystone Kop boots and had a primary for the ages. No shortage of weak candidates, two of whom had to drop out because they couldn’t pull off the signature effort properly to get on the ballot. (With one, a “quality expert” sending a small fortune and still mucking it all up.) The most semi-electable of this field, pundit Tudor Dixon, won the nomination but has failed to upshift into a plausible campaign. (It seems running statewide in a tough competitive state like Michigan is a lot harder than doing the odd Fox News hit.). The Whitmer campaign has adroitly knocked Dixon off stride – mostly on the abortion issue – from day one. Dixon’s fundraising has been anemic and she hasn’t been able to really compete on paid media, relying on a DeVos funded IE for air cover. Recent polls show Whitmer easily leading. I think this race will close a little in the end, but chalk this lost opportunity up to GOP bumbling. Zooming West a bit, the Oregon Governor’s race is fascinating. Republican Christine Drazan is running slightly ahead in an intrigue filled three-way contest. Democratic candidate Tina Kotek is fighting a two-front war with credible GOP candidate Drazan on the right and former Democratic Legislator Betsy Johnson running as an independent (and showing significant support in the high teens.). If Drazan can pull this off – and polls show it’s tight – she’d be Oregon’s first GOP Governor in four decades.
GIBBS: Agree that both of those are fascinating races. To me, maybe the most interesting race is out West in Arizona where the current Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs and former news anchor/former Obama supporter turned Trump acolyte Kari Lake are running in an open seat. Lake is no normal candidate (and not just because of where she’s been and the endorsement that propelled her to the nomination). As a campaigner she’s very talented and smooth having spent years in front of the camera before this race. So much so that Hobbs has declined to debate her. I’m not sure the stakes could be higher because Lake (and virtually every GOPer running statewide in AZ this cycle) continues to maintain that the 2020 Arizona election was fraudulent despite the fact that audit after audit has proved otherwise and if Trump runs and loses Arizona in 2024 a Governor Lake could refuse to certify the election. Keep both eyes on this one as the stakes in this are A LOT bigger that one state in the West!
Along those same lines, the races for Governor in Wisconsin and Nevada are also hugely important. Can Gov. Tony Evers be re-elected in the swing state of Wisconsin against Republican challenger Tim Michels? Will Gov. Steve Sisolak fend off Clark County Sheriff and GOPer Joe Lombardo in Nevada? The polls are tight in all three of these toss up races, which shouldn’t surprise anyone given just how close each of those states were in 2020. Just a handful more than 55,000 total votes in these three states separated Biden winning them and their accompanying electoral votes.
Of course, I have to mention both PA and GA here, too. Though Doug Mastriano has failed to put up much of a fight in the general election with his virtually non-existent campaign, Attorney General Josh Shapiro’s strength here could help in the Senate race. In Georgia, Stacey Abrams has consistently trailed incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp, but I think this one is closer than some of the polls show and, again, the outcome here could be important in the Senate contest.
@hacksontapnewsletter: It’s as if everyone remembered that Republicans have been undercounted in polls.
MURPHY: In the Senate races, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah and Florida are all a click behind the Big Four but still interesting. In NC, Trumpish Congressman Ted Budd is facing state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley in an essentially tied race. This will be a great test of the likely GOP wave; for that reason I give Budd the edge, but we’ll see. In Ohio gifted pol Tim Ryan – a rare blue-collar friendly lunch pail Democrat is giving hapless former Never Trumper turned Trump accolade JD Vance an aggressive challenge. Ryan had a small lead, but the race has closed a bit as November rapidly closes. In Ohio’s gubernatorial race, Republican Mike DeWine is easily leading, which is a tell (much like Georgia) of where the state voters want to land (Republican) if they can just find a way to stomach Vance (and Herschel W) and ignore Ryan’s (and Warnock’s) considerable charm. This race is a favorite candidate among many Democrats as an exciting potential upset. In pure red Utah, troubled incumbent Senator Mike Lee is facing a remarkable challenge from ex-CIA agent Evan McMullin who is running as an independent candidate, vowing to caucus with neither Chuck Schumer nor Mitch McConnell. A Deseret News poll out yesterday shows Lee with a small 4% lead and a dangerously low for an incumbent ballot number of just 41%. The fact that McMullin has made this a race is in itself remarkable. (Disclosure: I’m helping a pro-McMullin SuperPAC.). Then there is Florida. Marco Rubio is holding a 5 to 6-point lead over Democratic challenger Rep Val Demings. It’s his race to lose, but Demings has had strong fundraising success. I think the lynchpin here (for this race and Gov DeSantis’ re-elect) will be how well the state government handles immediate hurricane relief. Failure in that arena could create a fertile environment for Democrats to mount a surge. But failing that, my bet is on both Florida Republicans to prevail. Finally, my favorite GOP challenger is in Colorado where self-made businessman Joe O’Dea is showing Republicans the classy old school GOP playbook (stick to issues, make sane arguments and don’t deny election results) still has plenty of appeal. In many ways, O’Dea is much like Ohio Democrat Tim Ryan; he’s taking a different path and avoiding party orthodoxy in his race and in purple Colorado it’s helping him punch above his weight. No doubt O’Dea remains a longshot against incumbent Democratic Sen Michael Bennet, but an upset win here would send a great message to the wider GOP. Bennet has an 8-point lead in recent polling, but any strong final GOP wave will tighten this race over the next two weeks. Keep an eye on the next wave of polls.
GIBBS: Undoubtedly, the races in NC and OH could be surprises for Dems on Election Night in just four weeks. Both Beasley and Ryan have run really great campaigns in states that aren’t all that easy for Dems. To me Murphy, the story here may well be the Senate races in obvious swing states like NH and AZ that just aren’t quite the top tier they really should be. They’ll likely be tighter in the finish, but if the GOP fails to win control of the Senate on in 2022, I’m predicting a major blame game is going to breakout over what happened in hopes of dragging Trump down and trying to beat him up a bit before he decides and declares to run again in 2024. We see it in a lot of places where GOPers won’t call Trump out by name on some of the things he says or does but they will cast blame if his actions lead to failing to win the Senate.
Don’t worry, we didn’t forget the House races, that’s coming next week!
YOUR POPCORN GUIDE TO THE BIG DEBATES
@hacksontapnewsletter: Gibbs & Murphy pick the cage matches that will be fun to watch. In today’s newsletter!
IBBS: We’ve written a lot about how debates don’t quite have the number and feel as they have in past cycles but their frequency is ramping up as we close out the cycle. Last week, the Senate candidates in North Carolina faced off in their lone debate. Just last night got interesting in Ohio between MAGA convert J.D. Vance and Dem Tim Ryan. They both showed up in blue suits and red ties but that’s about the last thing they agreed on. Ryan hit Vance hard on being too extreme while Vance tried to cast Ryan as part of the Washington problem voters tend to hate after a 20-year career in DC. They traded blows over abortion, inflation, immigration, China and a lot more. And don’t miss the end here where Ryan describes what Ohio needs in a Senator.
The polls in this one are very close and we’ll see if this changes anything in the Buckeye State. In terms of other debates we’ll be watching this week: in Michigan, things could get interesting in the Governor’s debate on Wednesday between Dixon and incumbent Whitmer (the first of two). Whitmer has been on offense in this race for months due to GOP ineptness and, as Murphy mentioned above, Dixon hasn’t really changed the dynamic and time is running out if she’s going to do so. The pressure is on her trailing in the race to change its trajectory. The big cage match this week will be on Friday between the crisis-a-day GOP candidate Herschel Walker and incumbent Raphael Warnock. High stakes on both sides in the only debate we will see in Georgia with more to come on that Friday.
And given all the attention around FL Gov Ron DeSantis – from Martha’s Vineyard to the hurricane, the Crist-DeSantis debate on October 24 will also be one to watch. Lastly, October 25th pits Fetterman against Oz in PA. I’m getting the popcorn ready! Murphy?
MURPHY: I plan to stream all of them. Hint to Democrats: quickly put together a streaming fundraiser with a few nationally known Dem comics watching and heckling the Warnock vs. Walker debate Mystery Science Theater 3000 style. It’d be a $ making hit.
TIDBITS:
MURPHY: My tidbit is a bombshell development in the hotly contested Los Angeles Mayor’s race. The LA Times got ahold of a leaked audio recording of a private meeting between LA City Council President Nury Martinez, a LA Labor Fed Boss and two other Democratic Council Members. The tape documents a shockingly vile racist rant by Martinez directed at a fellow city council member and his adopted black soon. It’s vile stuff. Mayoral candidate Rick Caruso has called on Martinez and the other two Council members to resign, and has made no secret of the fact the Martinez is a top supporter of rival candidate Karen Bass. On the defensive after insulting a large local Latino Democratic club at a debate last week, Bass is scrambling to control damage; she has now also called on Martinez to resign. The race has tightened to 3 points and local observers are wondering if fast growing voter disgust at City Hall will give outsider Caruso a final boost against insider Rep. Karen Bass. Vote by mail ballots started dropping yesterday in California.
We’ll see you on Friday!
Murphy and Gibbs