Our Tuesday Takeaways and What’s Next
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, we might be quickly approaching election day, but we’re still getting some wild results in the primaries. They’re so wild that we couldn’t wait until Friday to talk about them. So in this issue, we give our takeaways on what happened from Kansas to Arizona to Michigan and what in all means for November.
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Let’s begin…
Sorry GOP, You’re Not in Kansas Anymore
GIBBS: So the epicenter of the political earthquake happened on Tuesday in the bastion of liberalism formerly known as (checks notes) Kansas?! GOP strategists tried to get too cute by half and land this vote during a primary election, figuring that alone would create enough turnout to win. What ensued was a near Presidential level turnout. Tuesday saw huge Democratic energy and turnout that swamped anything that the other side had. If you look at the biggest counties on the eastern border of Kansas, places like Johnson County, which is where the Kansas City suburbs are, nearly 70% supported abortion rights in a county where Biden got just 53% of the vote in 2020. Then you go over to the Western border of the state and look at very small, very rural counties like Greeley County, which went 86% for Trump, but just 60% supported abortion restrictions. Now, the question as to if is there is energy around this issue has been answered powerfully in Kansas. The question for elections for the remainder of this cycle are how to translate that passion and energy when there isn't as clear a vote on the ballot as changing the constitution specifically around abortion rights? Murphy, what say you?
MURPHY: Now that was a tornado, Dorothy. But this one lifted the GOP right out of Oz and plunked Republican think down in the tough new reality of post-Roe politics. Gibbsie you're right; the local GOP brass in Kansas thought base Republican voters in a low turnout primary would sail this measure right through… after all, their reasoning went, Kansas is a pretty friendly state to Republican pro-life politicians. But it was not to be. Highly mobilized Democrats crushed that plan, in what is a scary omen for the general election dynamics coming soon in November, particularly in the vital suburbs and exurbs of a whole lot of key contests, especially in the tightest Senate races. Have no doubt, the mighty inflation and gasoline grinder is still a huge problem for the Dems, but the clear lesson of Kansas is that if Democrats can make a key race a referendum on Roe, they can do well with a lot of energy and a big spike in turnout. Remember, the biggest problem the D’s have in off year elections is getting their younger voters to actually show up and vote. Roe may become quite a magic ticket to make that happen. Kansas isn’t enough, big as the result was, to make me think the Dems can save their House majority, but the battle for the Senate seems to get more complicated for the R’s every day. Smart GOP strategists, looking at Kansas’s turnout surge and mulling the idiot wing of the GOP’s new brainstorm to go after same-sex marriage next, must feel a bit like Japan’s grand Admiral Yamamoto right after Pearl Harbor…
GIBBS: Looking to November, I think it's clear that this is going to have a pretty big impact in a series of important swing states like Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia, which have gubernatorial races that are going to be very competitive. This could also have an impact in places like Ohio, Texas or Florida, also with important gubernatorial races. Obviously, in a number of those places you'll have contested House and Senate races. So, it is really up to Democrats to harness this energy in a way that puts Republicans on the defensive, because it's clear from Kansas that there's a slice of the electorate that is Republican and pro-choice. Again, that’s not surprising if you look at a national poll, but it was stunning to watch it all happen in Kansas. The Kansas energy also shows the energy that could come around issues like same-sex marriage that you mention Murphy, another issue where many Republican elected officials are outside of the mainstream. The bottom line is there's never been a bigger dog catching a car issue than Republicans on Roe vs. Wade. They spent 50 years chasing the car and the dog has no clue what to do now. So Murphy, what should they do?
MURPHY: Change the subject to Biden, inflation and the fear surrounding perceptions of the economy. Fast.
Trump’s Grip on the GOP from Arizona to Michigan…
GIBBS: Well, in Arizona, if you wondered what Trump's grip on the party was like, it was answered in the governor's race, the Senate race, the attorney general’s race, the Secretary of State's race, and the former House Speaker’s race for a State Senate seat because it looks right now like Trump won or is leading in all of those races. The scary thing now is Arizona becomes the central battleground around the big lie. I still think Democrats are well positioned, but there's always been nervousness around the new Democratic nominee for governor Katie Hobbs, the former Secretary of State, who is maybe not the strongest candidate. Mark Kelly's got $25 million in the bank, but Arizona is a very, very, very purple swing state. Joe Biden won by a little more than 10,000 votes and Mark Kelly won one two years ago 51-49. So, buckle up.
MURPHY: If Kari Lake prevails in the Gubernatorial race, and as we write this she has a lead, it’s a mess for the Republicans. She’s nuts and a weak candidate. (A former local TV news reader, she was big for Obama in 2012. But latterly some sly MAGA magician changed the prompter copy and now she’s all in for Trump.) A big enough wave could elect even her, but I think the Democrats will have a slim edge if she is the nominee. While Masters isn’t as crazy, he is a big target and Mark Kelly is a savvy, well-funded pol. Still, if this is a punish Biden election, he’s vulnerable too. In Michigan, Tudor Dixon won the Governor’s race amidst a near farcical field of true ham n’ eggers. Still with the Misery Index we talked about in our last issue leading in Michigan, a big wave could well elect her. I think Dixon has a better chance by far than Kari Lake in Arizona. The big hammer coming soon from the D’s will be an attack on Dixon’s no exceptions position on abortion. We’ll see if Dixon stays there and takes the incoming or “evolves” to a softer pro-life position. The telegenic Dixon has only a medium shot, but is not the GOP candidate Gov. Whitmer was most excited about facing. The last Michigan item is the sad loss by Hero GOP Congressman Peter Meijer. He was one of the three GOP House Members who voted to impeach Trump who faced a primary last night. His crazy-pants opponent John Gibbs – any relation Robert? – was boosted by a huge, $500K+ TV buy funded by the DCCC. It probably made the difference. (Yes, the election denying Gibbs got far more money from the DCCC than he did from Trump, the NRA and the rest of the official GOP combined and multiplied 10 times.) It looks like the other two Trump impeaching Members won their primaries in Washington state, and Meijer only lost by around 3.5%. I think if the DCCC hadn’t got so deeply in the helping kooks business Meijer would have won his primary and the anti-Trump GOP forces would have been 3-0 in primaries this week. But instead, Democratic cynicism won out.
GIBBS: Sorry, Murphy, but don't blame the outcome in a Republican race on Democrats. I'm not going to argue that this isn't terribly cynical, and yes it fails to meet our own challenge of rhetoric around protecting democracy, but it wasn’t Republicans who were stampeding to the polls in traditionally conservative Republican establishment Western Michigan to elect (not my brother) John Gibbs, but, in fact, John Gibbs from Western Michigan. As you said, look for abortion to play a HUGE role in this race given the draconian law from the 1930s on the books in Michigan.
I’ll end with this big question: what's the difference between a wave election and an election that simply favors one party? It's in places like in the US Senate race in the state of Washington. There have been whispers that maybe just maybe the big red wave could make long time incumbent Patty Murray vulnerable. She ran Tuesday in the Washington primaries that puts all the voters together and she came out with 54% of the vote as it stands now. In a wave election, those are the kind of Senators who would be vulnerable and may not really know it and end up losing on Election Night.
MURPHY: If the wave can prop up wobbly GOP challengers in OH, MI, PA and AZ, it’ll be enough. One Senate footnote: the disgraced and despicable ex. Gov Eric Greitens lost his comeback bid in MO last, getting crushed into third place in the primary. Eric Schmidt the state AG is no thoughtful moderate, but he could easily keep Roy Blunt’s Senate seat in Republican hands.
GIBBS: This might have been the last set of primaries with lots of different states on one night, where I could sit in front of my computer and in front of my TV and see a new wave of states every hour for three or four hours (ah, the joys!), but there's still some big ones on the horizon. Tuesday brings us a few states including the super important Wisconsin race. On August 16th, Liz Cheney is on the ballot in Wyoming along with Alaska. We end August with Florida and the Congressional races in New York. There’s lots of fun ahead and we’ll be watching it all!
MURPHY AND GIBBS: Finally, we learned the tragic news yesterday of the loss of Rep. Jackie Walorski of Indiana, and two of her aides killed in a car crash. Our condolences go out to her family and families of her staff Members.
See you next week!
Murphy and Gibbs