Not So Sweet Virginia…
Hi Hackaroos!
While things continue to slug along in Washington, the not-so-faraway gubernatorial election happening next month in Virginia is anything but slow. We start there and then turn to the latest out of the January 6th Committee before some tidbits for the weekend.
(cover image credit: Win McNamee / Getty Images News)
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Trouble for the Macker in the Old Dominion?
Gibbs:
If you're asking what's new with reconciliation, and the bipartisan infrastructure deal, while there's no white smoke on Capitol Hill, there's a lot of smoke around this debate, and how the next few weeks might impact getting a deal.
To quote the Washington Post, “Public opinion polls show McAuliffe with a slim and hardly insurmountable lead, amid other troubling indicators for the party brand. Some Democratic leaders believe the Virginia race could have a tectonic impact on the party’s legislative agenda and political standing heading into next year’s midterm elections, suggesting a defeat would be close to devastating.”
As Virginia goes, I think there are the real impacts of what the electoral outcome will look like in Virginia 18 days from now and then there are the psychological impacts. The real impacts we've discussed. Obviously, a loss would be enormously painful for Democrats, given the run of election success recently in Virginia. Biden won Virginia by 10 percentage points just a year ago. So, the real impact of this, as I've discussed in a previous newsletter, is even a close win for McAuliffe will represent a significant shift in the political environment. That isn't rocket science, but it will begin to have Democratic strategists start to think through what does winning Virginia by three or four points mean for 2022? What worked in each campaign? What didn't work? What will work next year and in other places?
Obviously if there's a loss it will send people back to believing that what we're seeing is much more akin to 2009 and 2010 than anything else, when Democrat Creigh Deeds lost to Republican Bob McDonnell. It was a genuine ass kicking in a moment in which Republicans were feeling a little demoralized electorally after the Presidential Election of 2008. So, the psychological impacts of a loss I do think could be far flung. The media narrative will be dire (even as a close win by the media probably won't be examined as closely or as importantly, as I just mentioned), but safe to say a loss could send people fleeing from what they think is a burning building. While I don't know that I buy into the idea that it would be devastating to the legislative agenda, undoubtedly, it will have an impact. I actually think part of that potential impact might be for Democrats to quit arguing and get their act together on their agenda if McAuliffe loses because, as we've talked about ad nauseum, the worst outcome in this for Democrats is not getting anything done.
Murphy:
Well, there's no doubt that scary Halloween has come early for Virginia Democrats watching the gubernatorial race. These off-year races always get a lot of media attention and this close race comes at a particularly tricky time for President Biden. After a rough Kabul evacuation and still without a legislative victory on his key domestic agenda, the Biden White House does not need another big torpedo hit below the waterline. Yet, it’s looking like that quickly moving shape in the water could be just that. The Youngkin campaign is re-teaching Republicans a good lesson that Virginia has taught before about how to gain ground at a time of Democratic disarray. Run a somewhat boring and non-scary to the suburbs candidate. The base will grumpily vote for that sort of non-red meat candidate for tribal reasons (take that Nancy Pelosi!), but the key suburban swing voters appreciate the milder, more pragmatic tone. (Case in point. On our last Hacks podcast Axe and I were discussing Virginia and how the Youngkin campaign has not asked for Donald Trump to come visit. I predicted Trump would show up anyway to hitch his star on the race and try to take credit if Youngkin won. Well, it happened and Youngkin passed on attending the Trump rally.)
Shrewd move. McAuliffe’s other problem is that when the GOP candidate isn’t scary enough, suburban voters find other things to fear, like wild-eyed Progressives with big spending and taxing plans. AOC call your office…. So here we are less than three weeks out and unless McAuliffe can take back control of the race and soon, I think he’s going to most likely lose. Looks like they know it too; canny northern VA-based consultant Matt Leonardo tells me he’s seeing a massive number of different McAuliffe TVs in rotation; a sure sign of a panicking campaign throwing the entire video sink at the wall. That’s a tell that things are choppy at campaign HQ and it is never a good strategy because it only serves to badly blur the paid message. There is a Congressional angle here too. A week ago Speaker Pelosi was working to get a House deal done asap to help buck up Democratic chances in Virginia. I was dubious they’d make it in time. Now, some hard-headed Democrats will make a quiet backstage argument to hold passing any bill till after VA. If it goes badly, then they can sell the package as a reset. If they pass it right before VA and McAuliffe loses, then the loss will be partially defined by the media as a negative “referendum” on the Biden package. Either route is painful, but welcome to triage.
Gibbs:
Unfortunately to your point, Murphy, the latest CBS poll shows Republican voter enthusiasm much higher than Democratic enthusiasm, but some good news for Dems in that it still has McAuliffe up by a few points. FOX also has the race within the margin of error, but the former Governor on top. President Obama, Stacey Abrams, Jill Biden and others are heading to the Commonwealth for a reason and it means this thing is coming down to the wire.
President Biden could also use the help of Stacey Abrams, by the way, as our Hacks friend Jonathan Martin pointed out, given President Biden’s numbers have plummeted since the summer with Black voters and the last thing McAuliffe needs is for those numbers to follow him in Virginia.
The Insurrectionists’ Contempt Continues
Gibbs:
Then there’s the not so surprising news out of the January 6 committee that Steve Bannon skipped his deposition after being subpoenaed to appear. The next set of steps will start next Tuesday when the Committee will vote to hold him criminally in contempt, which will force a vote of the full House to send a recommendation to the Department of Justice. Attorney General Merrick Garland, who has drawn the ire of some Democrats on certain issues, seems to be fully on board with a deep investigation of what happened around the insurrection of January 6. Certainly, the drama quotient of this is going to get ramped up, even if the next set of steps for this investigation are inside of a courtroom, rather than inside of a committee room. And this is a big moment for Congressional oversight and what this January 6th investigative committee will do to compel testimony. Remember, it issued subpoenas to the four witnesses it wants to start with rather than inviting them in order to save valuable time to end up where we are now.
Murphy:
(see Murphy's full video creation below)
On this one we agree, Gibbsie. I was not surprised that Steve Bannon is making the creepy pro-insurrection move to defy an important investigation. He owes it to the country to testify honestly, but this is Bannon, Meadows and company so don’t hold your breath. I hope the Feds hunt ‘em down Racket Busters style and drag them to testify in leg irons.
TIDBITS:
Gibbs:
I mentioned a few newsletters ago the concern around Biden's dip in approval ratings having tracked pretty closely with people's growing pessimism around COVID. After the initial euphoria and optimism as many got vaccinated, the rise of the Delta variant pushed a majority of people into believing the worst around COVID was still ahead of us. With that sentiment came a souring on Biden and his handling of the virus. New polling shows as Delta variant cases decrease that a plurality now believe that the worst is behind us. Good news on the public health front and good news for Joe Biden’s political health too. Democrats will be anxious to see if this removes a weight around Biden's approval ratings. Some recent polling showed Biden’s approval in the low 40s, but more recent polling has shown him at around 50-50. So, this will be worth watching to see if it helps and how much. While redistricting will be impactful, the political environment in 2022 will be determined more by President Biden’s approval rating than anything else. And that will drive the outcome of next November's midterm elections.
Murphy:
My tidbit is out of Texas, where our sources in the HIA (Hack Intelligence Agency) report on interesting new polling in the race for Texas Lieutenant Governor which is an important race (Texas is very rare in that the Lt Gov presides over the state Senate and is immensely powerful). The race pits incumbent crackpot Dan Patrick versus two Democrats: former George W. Bush strategist Matthew Dowd and 2018 Dem Lt Gov nominee Mike Collier (who shocked a lot of Texas politicos by nearly beating Patrick last time). Dowd announced recently and his campaign has an interesting New Age vibe to it. But HIA sources shared some internal polling showing Dowd’s campaign announcement has landed with a bit of a thud among Texas Democrats, with Collier clearly in the lead among primary voters. It’s still early, but Patrick is the most vulnerable statewide Republican in Texas and this primary will count.
Until then, have a great weekend and we’ll be back on Tuesday.
Murphy and Gibbs