Manchin Versus The World: What Are The Dems To Do?
Hello Hackaroos,
Washington is a flutter as Joe Manchin continues to break Democratic hearts, Senate races heat up – for the worried Republicans – and a smaller Biden domestic bill inches forward. Plus, Murphy has a UK Leadership brawl update and, as always, we have a few political tidbits, including today’s primaries in Maryland.
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Let’s begin!
When The DINO Attacks (Bite Back!)
Credit: Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images News
GIBBS: Well, I think Democrats must feel a little bit like Charlie Brown with Lucy holding the football. Regardless of what they do or what they say and regardless of what Manchin decides he wants to do, that doesn't mean that's what he's going to do. Now, that having been said, if this agreement cuts spending for prescription drugs by seniors on Medicare, that's a really big win for Joe Biden. It’s something people have been talking about for more than two decades in Washington and it's now very close to finally getting done. Secondly, making sure that the subsidies for Obamacare insurance protection that came as part of the Recovery Act don't stop in October right before the election. That’s a big win for people who want to keep affordable health insurance. Taken together, it makes health care a lot more affordable for millions of Americans. You can make the case that while this isn't perfect or all of what you hoped it could be, it is monumentally better than the status quo. And Democrats have to understand, they have 50 people in the Senate. 50. The bare minimum. So, getting everything done and becoming FDR or LBJ’s Great Society was always going to be extraordinarily difficult. Again, that doesn't mean that what Biden has gotten isn't monumental. Simply put, it’s a lot of things Democrats have been wanting for a long time to get done.
MURPHY: As the wise man says Gibbsie, when in doubt take the win! I’ve been screaming that the White House ought to happily play small ball and score an actual win for months. The whole FDR 2.0 Build Back Whatever strategy was a dead-on arrival mistake from the moment some over-excited staffer’s pen first hit their legal pad. The D’s need simple wedge issues (think bumper sticker simple) they can fight on and finally go on an offense that voters can understand. This smaller bill could give them a useful cache of badly needed political ammo. In the often forgotten in Washington, DC category of what the country actually needs, one pending bill in particular ranks very high: the semi-conductor bill. It is slowly inching forward and it is critical that the measure passes this year. America badly needs our strategically important domestic chip making industry to grow and thrive. Finally, a brutal but potentially effective new tactical idea for Team Biden; once you get the small ball stuff – and the semi bill – passed, take a bow and then grab a nice big Bowie knife and make a purely political move. Go after Joe Manchin on climate change. Climate is a powerful issue with many younger, suburban voters. It can be a mighty election hammer, so use it. No more Mr. Nice Guy with Manchin. As Gibbs says, it’s been Lucy and the football. What kid hasn’t seen that routine and on the 10th time Charlie goes head over heels really, really wished Charlie would turn around and give Lucy a kick in the pants!? (Don’t cancel me, it’s a cartoon.) Lump Manchin in with the GOP and label him the Senator for future Climate disaster! The voting in the Senate will be done for the year, but the voting in November that will decide who will actually be in the Senate voting next year is up for grabs, so cash Manchin in. Roast him. Show Biden as strong. Get votes. The Senate races are the only place where the Dems have a glimmer of hope, so all in. Roe is helpful in a few key races. Climate can be as well. Weaponize it for November.
The Boris Battle Continues
MURPHY: OK, a quick update on the Game of Brits. The Tories had a few big TV debates over the weekend. The first was a sleeper, then it started for real as they began ripping each other’s faces off. It was so bad, Sky News just canceled the final one. Party opinion has shifted; these debates are helping no one, but the Labour party. The MPs voted again yesterday and today and have now cut the field to just three candidates. (Check out our last issue for sketches on each candidate.) Tomorrow the MPs will vote again to select the final two finishers, who then go on to face a national vote by the party's 200,000 or so card carrying members. That race will most likely come down to front runner Rishi Sunak – who has led every voting round and picked up support each time – and the winner of the intense brawl for second between today’s second place finisher Penny Mordaunt and third place finisher Liz Truss. Last week Mordaunt had a ton of buzz. She’s popular with the party base; she has a nice middle class military family pitch (her new video tells that story, highlighting her contrast with uber wealthy by marriage Sunak:
But a few days ago her effort stalled a bit, having a hard time with the venerable campaign “second look.” The nasty slag on Mordaunt has been of the Lady Lightweight variety (Boris fired her after only 78 days as Defence Secretary). But in the today’s voting, Mordaunt got back in the hunt and picked up a respectable 10 new MP votes.
Meanwhile, party war horse (and candidate of many of the old guard Tory right), Liz Truss is no TV debating star, but a gritty grinder and is moving up with 15 new votes earlier today. So it’s a Mordaunt vs. Truss contest. (God I love English names. Don’t get me started on Lord Cruddas.)
Old Tory wags think Truss will surge into second; a Truss v. Sunak final contest would provide the most natural face-off between the two biggest ideological factions of the party (with Truss as the Unite the Right candidate). She is out of the race this am, finishing 4th today, but the fun of the contest has been the surge for young, black, brilliant junior Minister Kemi Badenoch. She has made herself a definite future star, very likely headed to the cabinet when the new PM and her or his Leadership team is announced in about seven weeks. We’ll keep you updated.
What’s Next for the January Sixth Committee?
GIBBS: The big political play of the week will almost certainly be the January 6th Summer Finale. They've teased throughout the weekend and confirmed last night that this won’t be the last hearing from the Committee, as their investigation continues. They'll also produce a written report. Whatever comes of Thursday night will cap an extraordinary set of bombshell hearings. I was like many others who were worried the hype wouldn’t necessarily match the content, largely because the steady stream of leaks made me wonder if we’d seen most of the movie’s plot in the preview. Well, they didn’t disappoint and instead broke a lot of new ground. Will definitely be interesting primetime TV again Thursday. Murphy, you got your popcorn ready?
MURPHY: I love a Big Finish!
TIDBITS
GIBBS: If it’s Tuesday, it’s primary day somewhere! Today, it’s in Maryland, where a whole lot of candidates are running on each side to replace term limited moderate GOP Governor Larry Hogan. A group of 3 Dems have been neck and neck in the polls, while the GOP side features a Hogan-endorsed candidate against (you guessed it!) a Trump-backed entrant.
Speaking of Trump backed candidates, it’s worth watching the upcoming primary in Arizona, where we’ve got a GOP battle on our hands with Mike Pence supporting a different candidate in the Arizona governor's race (Karrin Taylor Robson) than Donald Trump is (local TV anchor Kari Lake). Dueling candidacies and dueling rallies coming to a desert near you for the August 2nd primary!
And lastly, speaking of the former President, it looks like this year’s October Surprise will be the big announcement Donald Trump is running for reelection. National Republicans must be thrilled! Bet you didn't have that on your bingo card, Murphy?
MURPHY: I'm shocked! Shocked! But Trump’s rumored early announcement is a big tell: the Orange One is running scared! Trump feels he must announce because, wait for it… the race is slipping away from him! Think about that. When was the last time Trump was forced to do something by “his” GOP? Trump’s early announcement is a huge sign of weakness and a mistake for Trump. Still, I’m loving the Trump panic. Politico had a great story about Trump nervously rushing around the country doing private meetings with big donors he is worried he will soon lose to DeSantis or other potential rivals. The self-proclaimed GOP Strong Man is looking very weak these days and the big donors can smell it. The story did have one great nugget which made me laugh out loud. It seems Lindsey Graham got in stuck a long, loud and stupid debate with C-list country music star and chowderhead anti-vaxxer John Rich. (Lindsey took the side of science, which in that group meant he was badly out-numbered.) Well, get in bed with the wackos Lindsey, and you have to live with it.
And with that, see you on Friday for more on the big January 6th primetime summer finale.
Murphy and Gibbs