Manchin Makes Biden’s Naughty List
Hi Hackaroos,
Well, just when we all thought we’d quietly head into the holidays, Senator Manchin strikes again. This time what could be a fatal blow to the Biden Build Back Better agenda, but that all depends on what happens next. We hash out what we think is the best path forward for the President as we head into the holidays.
One final reminder, please put your questions in the comments below so we can answer them in a special edition of the newsletter on Friday before we take a holiday recess!
Let’s begin…
Where Does Build Back Better Go From Here?
Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images News
Gibbs:
So Murphy, it’s the end of the year, anything on your mind? Anything left for us to talk about?
Murphy:
Oh, nothing really at all. Unless you count Joe Manchin transforming himself into a wrestling villain in a way that has driven the Democratic left into a rage frenzy! What a move… a total axe to the President’s back. As an old school type I do think Manchin went too far; it’s a real heel move to wipe your own President’s chief domestic initiative in his first year. So, I call disloyalty foul on the Senator. That said, shame on Bidenworld for putting Manchin in an impossible position with legislation far to the left of what Manchin could be reasonably expected to ever support. That was a major blunder. So, while I’m ideologically with Manchin all the way, I think in this tough time for Biden – and with the grim specter of Trump 2.0 on the 2024 horizon - Manchin owed the President better treatment.
Gibbs:
Yeah, I think everybody was somewhat concerned when they learned that Joe Manchin was booked on Fox News Sunday – his choice of programming, not lost, I believe, on anyone. Several things really struck me. First, the back and forth that a Manchin aide was dispatched to tell the White House what he was going to say only about 30 minutes before he went on television.
Murphy:
Has that Manchin aide been heard from since, or is there a body floating in the Potomac?
Gibbs:
Good question! I mean how about a real courtesy call?! Is that asking too much?! And then it took hours and hours for the President to finally get Manchin on the phone Sunday night. I was also very struck by the public acceleration in the White House's statement. As has been pointed out by a number of people, and underscored by you here Murphy is, in many ways, Washington operates a bit in the old school game of their word means something and trusting that they're negotiating in good faith. Clearly, the White House felt not just genuinely burned by what Manchin offered in negotiations just last week and then what he consequently said on Fox, and they certainly let the world know that in a clear and hot way. Remember, regardless of this week’s outcome, unless there’s a party switch, we’ve got at least 11 more months of a 50-50 Senate.
Murphy:
Well, Gibbs, the White House staff has always played Manchin wrong from the start because they failed to understand there is an ideological point that he cannot cross. But a penalty flag to team Manchin for acting in such a childish way with the telephone games and the Fox News appearance. The biggest screw up was the White House’s furious statement. That did nothing to move the ball forward and played as the White House acting sulky and furious. Which to be fair was because the White House – read the POTUS who almost certainly approved the over-the-top statement – is sulky and furious, but still, it was not helpful or productive in the bigger picture for Biden.
Here’s a timeless hint to staff: when the President is pissed off, it’s often a good idea to put a dead battery in the ol’ Dictaphone and stall for a while until cooler Presidential heads prevail. Bottom line: it’s time for Biden to reset. I would suggest the President read our last newsletter where we suggested chopping the indecipherable Build Back Better plan into easily understandable smaller pieces and picking fights over each one in the Senate. Those you lose, you campaign with and – finally – go on offense. What won't work is endless whining about Manchin. That will not work politically, even if it does reflect the feelings of many Democrats now.
Gibbs:
I think the one thing that Democrats should be careful not to paper over is, one, Joe Manchin comes from a state where Joe Biden got 29% of the vote and a lot of this has to do with the President's current political health and the belief Joe Manchin has to be thinking about where the President's health will be in a few months. And that's not on a good trajectory, particularly if you happen to represent a state like West Virginia. And so, I think that's a big thing occupying space in the room. So Murphy, we had lots of good advice in our Friday newsletter, I will forward that on to the powers that be at Casa Blanca. What do you think this White House should do next?
Murphy:
The White House needs to look in the mirror and ask, ‘Do we really want to spend the midterm election year being a Jimmy Carter 2.0 punching bag for both the Republican Right and the Democratic Left? It’s time for scrappy Joe Biden and there are plenty of domestic agenda things he can fight for. Kitchen table issues that people care about. (Even if I think most are lib stuff I don’t agree with; if they are framed right they will have political appeal in the midterms.)
This whole Build Back By Bottomless Billions thing was too big. They swung too big. So, they need to abandon the gigantic strategy and start hitting a lot of doubles, which they can do politically and try to get their mojo back or the weakness, old, ineffective narrative is going to take over, which is going to be really bad for Biden, because it's going to be a tough midterm election no matter what and the White House most certainly doesn’t need the press to cement a Biden circling the drain narrative. So, it's time for a big change and it's time for a lot more offense. They ought to think medium, not huge. That's been their mistake.
Gibbs:
Yeah, it always pains me to some to agree with you Murphy, but I do.
Murphy:
It's a character-building experience for you here during the holidays.
Gibbs:
Ugh, you have no idea. I think that the Democrats need to figure out how to salvage a victory here. And to your point Murphy, it is to go smaller and to, if Joe Manchin wants those priorities funded over the course of 10 years, then Democrats are going to need to pick what few priorities they can fund over the course of a 10-year period of time and take progress for an answer. It was always somewhat unrealistic to think that in a 50-50 Senate and a House separated by less than five votes, that the next New Deal was on the horizon. Granted, I thought they could get to yes on something that was meaningful. But that doesn't mean that in the absence of erecting new FDR statues, that there can't be significant progress made. It's just that we're not going to solve all the world's ills in one piece of legislation in a 50-50 Senate where one of those members represents a state that Joe Biden got 29% of the vote.
Murphy:
Like I’ve said before, the Dems keep confusing partisan control with ideological control and that's been the trap that they have fallen into. But you could win baseball games with a lot of doubles. Start hitting them.
Gibbs:
Yeah, there's a way to resolve this. It was clear from the White House briefing yesterday that the White House is looking to de-escalate and not make this personal anymore, because getting out of that playground fight may be asking too much of the negotiations. And I know that there are a lot of Democrats that are reading these words, and worried that we've already been too patient with Joe Manchin, that we've already been too differential and while I don't want to buy into the idea that we have co-Presidents, I do think we have to understand the limits of what we can do in a Senate that normally requires 60 votes to do anything. Even in reconciliation, we've got no margin for error. So, look for the White House to redouble its efforts, to focus on something that's a little smaller and a little bit more focused on doing fewer things really well rather than trying to do a little bit of everything over the course of a couple of years of funding. Again, it won’t be the $6 trillion dream or the $3.5 trillion dream bill. But it can make real progress for millions of Americans with better educational opportunities, more affordable health care, investment in a clean energy future and more.
Murphy:
While they are at it, somebody senior at the White House outta straight out Vice President Harris on the topic of Joe Manchin being a fact of life. No more tantrums like this (scroll to about 18:42 in the interview):
Owning The Omicron Wave
Gibbs:
Another big event today is the President is set to speak on the new Omicron variant and steps that the administration is taking on this latest wave. Listen for the messaging changes that several people have alluded to over the weekend that the idea this isn't about new restrictions, but really warnings for people to get vaccinated and understanding how more to live with the pandemic/future endemic rather than shutting things down at the beginning of every wave. I am glad he’s taking steps to make rapid testing more available and free by buying half a billion tests and distributing them rather than the cumbersome idea of saving your receipts and sending them to your insurance provider. If we could get testing done better, it would be a huge step in dealing with what’s coming next. Make no mistake, this President ends 2021 with a lot of loose ends. He ran a campaign on ending the chaos and upping the competence. That's going to continue to be a high bar and will be a huge test: COVID, his legislative agenda and Iran/Russia/China and much, much more will test that campaign idea heading into a busy and impactful 2022.
Murphy:
By the way, I just received news in a late-night White House meeting last night that the President has ordered the name Omicron to be changed to name “Manchin.” We’ll know the White House has successfully shifted gears when jokes like that stop working. Sooner the better. The next press narrative on Biden will be driven by how fast they reset on Manchin.
Gibbs:
There's a great example of this, when the Democrats lost the special election in Massachusetts in 2010 many thought that was the death knell for healthcare reform and obviously President Obama had spent a lot of time and energy and an enormous amount of political capital getting to that point. He wouldn't, Speaker Pelosi wouldn't, and others wouldn't let the idea and the goal of passing healthcare reform die. And just a few months later, after even more negotiation and work, that bill was signed into law. So, there's plenty of evidence that regrouping with a smart strategy can still pay off. To your point Murphy, lots of lots of camera lenses trained on the White House to see the quickness with which they not just embrace that, but outline steps to make it happen.
Murphy:
Yeah, in politics, sometimes you make the tough decision to pull a restart on your own and other times if you move too slow your restart is forced upon you. That's what's happened here. So the test of Biden will be how quickly and effectively they can change it all up.
Finally, all our Hackaroos and newsletter aficionados, we wish you and yours a Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and a fantastic New Year. We will be back with a special year end mail bag issue on Friday so leave your questions in the comments below.
Murphy and Gibbs