Let Infrastructure Week Really Begin: Live From the White House Edition
Hi Hackaroos!
Well, the Bipartisan Infrastructure bill is now officially law, and one of us (we’ll let you guess which one) was there to witness the big day. And the timing could not be any better for President Biden, who continues to face some tough polling. That’s where we begin before turning to the all too early chatter around 2024 and even 2028!
(cover photo cred: Kenny Holston / Getty Images News)
Gibbsie's White House Invitation to yesterday's bill signing
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Let’s begin…
The Politics of Polls
Gibbsie's View of POTUS
Murphy:
Well Gibbsie, Democrats everywhere are reaching for the Excedrin tablets because a new ABC News-Washington Post poll is out showing President Biden's poll numbers continue to slip. Now people should remember that all polls are a look in the rearview mirror. That said, the news is pretty awful for the White House as the midterms approach. In some ways, the scariest number for Democrats in this new poll was the generic Congressional ballot (which asks voters which party they want in control of Congress) showing Republicans with a big 51-41 lead, the biggest lead for Republicans since the poll started asking that question in 1981.
So, two questions for you, comrade Gibbs: first, how do you interpret the numbers and second how does Biden and the Democratic team handle what is certain to be a renewed epidemic of bedwetting around the Democratic power structure as they read these grim numbers?
Gibbs:
All good questions, Murphy. It’s pretty clear the poll results are sobering for Biden. There's not a lot of good news. To me, the numbers that are more disconcerting and maybe the reason you get to the bad congressional ballot numbers is because the American people don't think the President is focused on what is important in their lives and doesn't think that he's made any real impact as President. Look, this isn’t the first bad poll for the West Wing. They've had three plus months of tough news cycles. So, I don't think they’ll be that shell shocked about this. But undoubtedly, it comes at a tough time as Members of Congress and their staffs really focus on the national environment post-2021 elections. So, I expect that the nervousness factor for Democrats finishing this year and heading to next year will be maybe not off the charts, but pretty darn close.
Murphy:
Yeah, if I were a pain in the neck backbench Democratic Member of Congress, the awkward question I would bring up as I avoid the withering glance of Speaker Pelosi would be why are we so sure that Biden was elected to lurch left toward a very Progressive big spending agenda? Maybe people just wanted to toss the exhausting Donald Trump out of office and hoped Biden would bring a return to boring normalcy, not more scary chaos and this time from the Left?
Gibbs:
Well, I think the two bright spots in the poll for Democrats are the public’s support of the Build Back Better agenda as it’s a lot of what Joe Biden ran for President on in his pitch to get rid of Donald Trump and the infrastructure bill signed yesterday. So, the hand has been dealt and now you’ve got to play the hand. The poll shows you need to go get Build Back Better done. But most importantly, as we’ve been saying on repeat, I think that the administration has to go on a communications and messaging offensive to make sure people begin to understand what Joe Biden has done that impacts their lives in a positive way. This poll captures that they understand it a lot in a negative way around increasing gas prices and overall inflation, but I think the real challenge starting with the signing of the infrastructure legislation presents the opportunity to go out there and really talk about it. The difference between this period of time and 2009 is health care reform was going to take a couple of years to set up the marketplaces to sell health insurance. So, health care reform in 2010 was never written to have an immediate impact on the next election. Infrastructure and the policies like the child tax credit (which feels like a middle class tax cut) and other items in this agenda can have a more immediate impact and change people's perceptions about how this Administration has improved their lives.
Gibbsie's White House selfie from yesterday
Murphy:
Another cold, hard political lesson, evident in this poll as well as the last few, is that COVID-19 only gives pain. Electeds get blamed for it, but if there’s any improvement they get little or no credit for being part of that. I agree on infrastructure. They've got to make the headlines about that asap. But as long as they've got this internal Democratic fight going on over massively increasing domestic spending, the short attention span press coverage will veer toward DC process brawls, which is an obstacle to getting the infrastructure message across cleanly and moving Biden’s numbers.
Gibbs:
Well, I think the truth for Democrats is Build Back Better is going to take several more weeks at least to get done. This Congressional process back and forth is going to happen through the end of the year. But that shouldn’t stop the President, the Vice President, and as many members of the Cabinet as can visiting every important media market in this country and talking about what's in the infrastructure bill. We don't have to wait on or rely on everything to get done to start talking about what has already been set into motion.
Murphy:
Yeah, I'll be measuring how many of those Biden cabinet officials mutter, “Oh, Christ not again,” under their breath when the first question at those local press conferences in Barneyville is about Senator Manchin holding up the entire Biden spending plan? What are AOC’s latest complaints about Biden's plan not doing enough?
Gibbs:
Yeah, the beauty of local press interviews is if you're in Michigan, or if you're in New Hampshire, or if you're in Wisconsin they don't really care about the Senator from West Virginia, especially if you’re focused on local specifics. This isn't about trying to capture the headlines on CNN. It's about trying to capture headlines on the six, 10 and 11 o’clock local evening news.
Murphy:
Yeah, but I notice these days that local press in no longer a localized news island and DC dumpster fire stories really play wide. We’ll see.
Let the 2024, 2028 Chatter Begin! Too Soon? We Think So Too…
Murphy:
Now, Gibbsie, let’s talk presidential politics! On the Republican side. Call me crazy (I know you never would). But it looks to me like Chris Christie has decided to run for President as the Trump skeptical candidate. He's making a lot of early noise having done a remarkable and gravity defying 180-degree handspring from serving as a Trump factotum to, now, a Trump critic. It’s quite an… evolution.
Gibbs:
What do I make of it? I make a big bowl of popcorn and sit back and watch. After 10 months of watching the steel cage match that is the Democratic Party, am I excited about a little Republican-on-Republican infighting? I’m all for it! Pass the salt! I think it's fascinating because I can't tell whether anti-Trump is a lane in this Republican primary fight, or whether or not what ultimately is going to happen is Chris Christie is going to basically blow himself up in hopes of preserving some semblance of the modern Republican Party. But you better believe I'm here to watch, that's for sure!
Murphy:
Well, it will be interesting. I think there is a GOP primary lane for Rs who speak gently about moving on beyond Trump in 2024. The pure anti-Trump lane will probably be a lot smaller (although I proudly reside in it). Since the only move Christie has is to be interesting early, I totally understand what he is trying to do. The conventional Christie campaign, with no base and no money, looks pretty grim in 2024. But with his ability to attract media attention and his boisterous and combative tone, standing out now at least gives Christie some spotlight and at least a play to run. You’ve got to remember that while Christie is great on the attack—ask the bleeding ghost of Marco Rubio for President — nobody in the last contest ever actually voted for him: he got murdered in New Hampshire, didn't exist in Iowa or South Carolina and after those smackdowns, Christie was out in a flash. So now while he may become the ultimate “smart” beltway candidate, we’ll see what happens when the actual primary voters show up.
Gibbs:
My question for you Murphy is: can Christie create this lane for himself when he was so close to Donald Trump that he caught COVID inside debate prep at the White House? It’s going to be harder for him to break out the “I told you so” t-shirt.
Murphy:
Yeah, it looks shamelessly political and highly cynical, but with Christie that is truth in advertising. But I agree, it's one of the many obstacles he's facing.
Gibbs:
While we’re talking presidential politics, it’s remarkable to me how quickly the political press goes to the next race. It started this weekend with a cascade of coverage in the Washington Post beginning with Buttigieg vs. Harris for 2024 or 2028. It’s remarkable that we might contemplate writing a story about who's going to run in 2028 followed then by a couple of a deep dives, including what appeared to be about 300,000 words from CNN on the political health of Vice President Harris.
Murphy:
Were the 300,000 words from Axelrod?! I kid, I kid the Axelrod people. Great people!
Gibbs:
He would never! So, there's lots of political back and forth about where the Democratic Party sits. See our previous discussion about the Washington Post poll. Despite a pretty successful visit to France, this weekend brought some very tough reviews for Vice President Harris in both CNN and Politico. My biggest nit with the Politico story centered around wondering if Joe Biden doesn't run, Kamala Harris isn't going to have the field to herself. I don't know anybody who thought that was likely to be the case. Al Gore was a pretty good vice president for eight years for Bill Clinton and had to run against Bill Bradley. So, this idea that every other Democrat was just going to walk away from an open race for President was probably silly to begin with. Again, seems like this set of stories is premature at best right now.
Murphy:
Yes, the Harris stuff is grim. The Buttigieg thing didn't surprise me. You could see that one coming a mile away, but boy, it was early. I agree. I'm surprised the timetables for candidates after Biden moved up this quickly. Normally that stuff comes later, say, right after the rubble of a bad midterm. But, as you say, the press are addicts so the only question is will they jog or run toward the latest campaign rumor crack and it's apparent they're running at full tilt. In all the mentioning though, I think Washington's ever omnificent conventional wisdom is missing the obvious primary challenger and at least on paper, the most formidable (to anybody who understands the demography of the Democratic presidential nominating process after New Hampshire). That’s Stacey Abrams, who regardless of whether she gains elected office, has enough stature in the party to be a credible primary challenger to almost anyone who enters the race.
Only another 1,085 until election day 2024! We refuse to start the countdown to 2028 just yet.
We’ll be back on Friday with more.
Murphy and Gibbs