LAWYERS, GUNS AND THE GOP
Hello Hackaroos!
Well, we got at least two of our questions from earlier in the week answers around gun legislation and then obviously big decisions from the Supreme Court this week. We start there and then turn to the latest from the January 6th investigation and a few interesting election tidbits.
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Let’s begin!
NEWS FLASH: THE ROE DECISION JUST CAME DOWN. WE’LL HAVE TONS ON THIS IN NEXT ISSUE.
ONE STEP FORWARD, TWO STEPS BACK ON GUNS?
MURPHY: Well daggumit they did it. Our bitterly divided, petty, dysfunctional Senate actually rose to a moment of national need and passed modest, but useful gun reform legislation in a significantly bipartisan manner. I don’t want to over play this – in many ways Congress passing needed legislation is a bit like a Boy Scout demanding a merit badge for telling the truth – but in our current political wasteland… I’ll take it. A real step forward in many ways.
GIBBS: Murphy, it’s been almost 30 years since Congress did anything on gun safety and, now, we are hours away from some much-needed progress. The Senate, with 15 GOP votes passed this bill last night and the House is likely to do the same today. As we’ve discussed, it’s not all of what must be done but it is progress. Truly glad to see Congress move the ball forward on something they’ve struggled for so long to even do the smallest things. On the other hand, the Supreme Court’s ruling on guns is just terrible, but let’s leave that for another day.
KARMA’S A B…. FOR KEVIN M…
MURPHY: So when the Jan 6 Committee was formed, the House GOP went into IQ 83 (a fun novel) mode and decided they’d fight back by holding their breath, stamping their feet and refusing to have anything to do with the committee. Whoops… As any campaign flack knows, when in doubt try to get into the story to shape your side of the tale your way. Now the truth is winning the day and it’s a well-deserved mess for the Trump enablers in the House Republican conference. And of course, El Trumpo is pouting and blaming and, well, stomping his feet and holding his breath. Bad mojo for McCarthy… it wouldn’t surprise me if Trump takes a whack at Kevin when he runs for Speaker if the R’s win the House majority many suspect.
GIBBS: This was a huge strategic blunder by McCarthy and all of the GOPers in the House from the very beginning and now they’ve given up any real chance at rebuttal. That’s not to say they could effectively even do that, given that the most damning parts of these hearings is from the mouths and notes of Republicans who worked for or even supported Trump. These hearings continue to drive news and gather important facts about that day and the days that led up to it. Important for history’s sake and (see below) very bad for The Donald.
CAN TRUMP MAKE DESANTIS GREAT AGAIN?
MURPHY: Political tongues are wagging over a UNH poll showing the first real “hmmm” news of the looming 2024 Presidential primary season. The poll shows Donald Trump LOSING (ok, margin of error, but let’s have some fun) a hypothetical New Hampshire primary race to Florida Governor and current GOP Starlet Ron DeSantis 39% to 37% (Mike Pence runs a distant third place). Two cautions: one, it’s very, very early and this is one poll. Second, NH Presidential primaries are full of Independent voters, not true everywhere in the process. Still this poll is an early indicator of two very important potential factors. One, Trump’s frame is being bent and damaged by both the Orange One’s own behavior of the last year and the very damaging tale being told by the hard, clear truths of the Jan 6, and second, there is no doubt Ron DeSantis has emerged as – at least – a placeholder for the large plurality if not small majority of GOP voters who have moved into the “Trump was great, don’t criticize him but it’s time for the party to move on.” This move toward, younger, fresher, newer is bad news for The Donald.
GIBBS: Don’t bury the lede here, Murphy. What elected Republicans are beginning to more fully understand from these January 6th Committee hearings and polls like this is how badly Trump is viewed by voters outside his core supporter base. Republicans think Biden has made mistake after mistake and yet this poll shows Biden handily beating Trump in a general election, 50% to 43%! Meanwhile, DeSantis leads Biden 47% to 46%. What’s very clear is it’s been a bad few weeks for Donald Trump.
TIDBITS:
MURPHY: Katie Britt just crushed OG Trump supporter turned discarded mistake Rep. Mo Brooks in the Senate runoff in Alabama. Britt is from the more regular GOP wing of the Alabama GOPverse, which is led by retiring Senator and all around Alabama political muscleman Richard Shelby. A nice final move by the canny Senator. Trump was with Brooks in the beginning and then dumped him when the polls showed a Britt surge. Brooks is vocally bitter. And despite a late endorsement of Britt to save his win/loss record, Trump took another loss here. Superman is having more and more trouble it seems, picking up big locomotives. Meanwhile Trump candidates also lost two congressional runoff primaries this week in Georgia. Interesting that Georgia and Alabama are now the states with the two worst records for Trump in delivering GOP primary victories to his own hand-picked candidates. Watch this space…
GIBBS: Interesting polls in Pennsylvania, done by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio show Dem nominee and current Attorney General Josh Shapiro leading the Governor’s race by 3, 49% to 46%, while Lt. Gov. John Fetterman leads Dr. Oz, the GOP nominee, by 6, 50% to 44%. And check out Dr. Oz’s favorability among voters: 30% favorable (not a typo!) and 63% unfavorable (again, also not a typo)! The difference in the margins in the Gov and Senate race are due largely to the fact that Oz has not healed the primary wounds, where is favorability among GOPers is just +15, while Mastriano’s is +56. But, as of now, both GOPers have net unfavorable ratings. If they don’t fix that…
MURPHY: Wow, this Ron Johnson thing is cheesy. Of all the lame excuses… the Senator is acting like somebody left a lost wallet at the front reception desk of his office and they dutifully called the local lost and found to report. No, it was a phony report designed to steal the Presidency in the Electoral College. Johnson should be drummed out of the Senate pronto….
GIBBS: Murphy, I’d add some comments here but I’m on the phone right now.
Have a great weekend and we’ll be back on Tuesday with more reaction to the Supreme Court decision.
Murphy and Gibbs