Joe Biden’s No Good, Very Bad Week, Now What?
Hello Hackaroos,
Happy Saturday! It’s been quite a week so we’re coming to you with a weekend edition of the newsletter ahead of a key week for President Biden as he officially starts his second year in office (with not much to show for it). We start with the rough week that was for the President, then turn to some tidbits about the big year ahead (including a big announcement from Murphy’s favorite Pennsylvania Senate hopeful).
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Let’s begin…
BACK TO THE FUTURE…
President Biden after his rough meeting with Senate Dems on Thursday (Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images News)
MURPHY: Well, we’ve seen this movie before. Biden tees up a big bill and it fails because he doesn’t have the votes in the Senate. You think they would learn to stop swinging for the fences with such a razor thin majority. This latest battle over federalizing election law in the wake of some bad GOP state legislation is really about the filibuster. All 50 D’s were for the two-headed Democratic voting reform legislation, but since most legislation needs a super-majority to get past the filibuster, the failure of Senators Manchin and Sinema to tank the filibuster rule is the real center of Democratic frustration today. We can argue the merits or problems of the bill – I’ll have a note on that later – but the politics of it all are pretty simple: It is not in President Biden’s interest to keep trying Hail Mary moves in the Senate that he is highly likely to lose. In this election year, it is better – and more realistic – for Biden to create simple wedging issues that he can take to the electorate in the Fall than to try to get huge ideological things done since, again, he doesn’t have the votes to do it. The Lucy and Football stuff just cements a weak/loser narrative that is going to give the Republicans more power after the election than before. The WH made a change up in tone to a more feisty style last week and it was, for them, a step forward to a stronger political strategy for this year. Now, he needs to stop focusing on getting big things done this year and instead draw the battle lines of the coming election.
GIBBS: There is simply no way to sugarcoat it. It would be a sizable understatement to say it’s been a tough week for the President and the White House. Some things were small, others were, frankly, big. On Tuesday in Atlanta, President Biden delivered a passionate and punchy speech about democracy and voting rights. Curiously, maybe the country’s foremost voting rights validator, Georgia gubernatorial hopeful Stacey Adams didn’t attend the speech citing a scheduling conflict (this is a small thing, but I still don’t totally understand how that happens). The speech was to set up decisive action on voting rights in the Senate, but as Murphy mentioned above, two Democratic Senators said no. And to add insult to injury to insult, Sen. Sinema reiterated her opposition to changing the filibuster rules as the President was preparing to talk to the Senate Democratic Caucus to make his case. This also may seem small, but this is the third time President Biden has gone to Capitol Hill to make his case and come away empty handed. That sort of thing usually doesn’t happen once, let alone 3 times. So for the week, Democrats in the Senate and the White House have used a lot of legislative time and a precious amount of political capital to get nothing.
Unfortunately, the bad news doesn’t stop there. The Supreme Court struck down Biden’s vaccine mandate. The monthly inflation report showed inflation for 2021 was higher than any time since the early 1980s. Price increases are outstripping the gains workers have seen in their wages. COVID messaging confusion seems to be a narrative that isn’t going away as the Administration’s actions all too often feels a few weeks behind the virus, and not in a good way. And, all the while, there’s seemingly been no movement on Biden’s Build Back Better plan. In fact, Dem strategists are planning campaigns assuming this legislation isn’t going to happen. Just a brutal scorecard as Biden’s first year winds up.
TIDBITS:
MURPHY:
GOP vs Civilization update: Naturally the MAGA-RNC is now threatening to blow up the thirty plus year old bipartisan debate deal that created the Presidential Debate Commission to run Presidential debates. While not perfect, the Commission has worked well for Presidential elections since 1988. No reason to blow it up at all, unless you are Hellbent on Hannity and Tucker hosting the next Presidential debate. Time to learn Chinese my friends.
As we noted in our last issue, South Dakota Senator John Thune announced he will indeed seek re-election. Thune is a strong player inside the GOP caucus as a trusted wingman to Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell. Many see him as McConnell’s successor. Thune has also taken a few tiny swipes at Donald Trump, so of course he is on the Orange Menace’s hate list. Now, in the wake of Thune’s reelection announcement, news was leaked that a Trump PAC has conducted a GOP primary poll in S.D. and shocker (!) Thune is in trouble if a Trump backed candidate runs against him. The poll, by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio, pitted Thune against MAGA hero and reliable imbecile Gov. Kristi Noem. In a potential primary, the data showed Thune 9 points behind Noem if the primary was held today. The numbers are probably about right, though I would strongly caution Gov Noem against it. First, Thune (and McConnell) can fight. The race would tighten and is no sure thing at all. 9 points in a primary is nothing; primary numbers move fast. Second, Noem is plotting a potential Presidential race in 2024. Why then take the big risk of a tricky primary now? My guess is even she isn’t dim enough to fall for this Trump hustle (like all things Donald running against Thune is in his interest, not hers) but who knows? The Trump-McConnell cold war is definitely growing hot – Trump went after McConnell by name during a tantrum on a must hear NPR interview…
...so a SD Senate primary could become a key proxy war in the greater battle if Noem does buy the dodgy timeshare being offered to her by Trumpland and decide to run against Thune.
A quick PA update: David McCormick has announced.
He’s a good and serious person, would be a serious Senator and I’m for him. But I can see the pain in his eyes in the second half of this announcement ad. You can tell he doesn’t believe the rote MAGA chow he has to cough up after the ad moves beyond the bio stuff. Such is the heavy toll a non-crazy person must pay to move forward and enter public service in today’s broken GOP.
Meanwhile Doc Oz’s SuperPAC doesn’t buy McCormick’s MAGA retooling:
And a McCormick friendly SuperPAC fires back at “Hollywood” Oz:
A last point on the voting rights howler in the Senate. The D’s deserve credit for, under Manchin pressure, retooling their original over-the-top voting rights bill. The new one still has some bad elements in my view, but was a big step forward. I wish the Senate would pass the John Lewis Act component of the bill today. But the most important immediate issue is being ignored. The legislation that regulates how the all-important Electoral College votes are counted is hopelessly antiquated. (It was written in 1887; I’m surprised it doesn’t mention tossing whalebones in the air to decide the ultimate winner). It is very vulnerable to mischief. If we want to protect Democracy, the Senate should pass this tomorrow. (I think the GOP would join in; McConnell has hinted they would. Remember, he wants to end Trump too.)
Now Democrats angry over the GOP blocking of their election reform stuff will say it’s not enough. Fine, take that argument to the elections. But don’t look a big, vital gift horse in the mouth and pass the Electoral Count Act today.
Coming Tuesday, we’ll discuss how Biden must retool and reset entering his second year as President.
See you then!
Murphy and Gibbs