Joe Biden’s First Supreme Decision
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, our Hacks predictions for 2022 are starting to come true with the Supreme news of the retirement of Justice Stephen Breyer from the US Supreme Court. Now all eyes are on Joe Biden to see who he will pick (and how he’ll fulfill his campaign promise to pick the first Black woman to serve on the high court). We talk the politics of the pick from the White House to the Senate and what it could mean for Biden’s political future. Then some tidbits (including the long-awaited return to Georgilvania).
As always, be sure to share the newsletter with your friends: https://hacksontap.bulletin.com/subscribe!
And check out our Hacks Merch: https://themerchspot.com/collections/hacks-on-tap.
Let’s begin…
THE POLITICS AND THE PROMISE OF PRESIDENT BIDEN’S FIRST SUPREME COURT PICK
Drew Angerer / Getty Images News
GIBBS: Well, Justice Breyer got a few months head start on what I had predicted at the outset of the year, but the prediction is still true: the second longest serving current Justice of the US Supreme Court, will step down at the end of this term. This opens up a lot of real estate, all of which we should unpack piece by piece. For one, this is a HUGE sigh of relief from Democrats who were concerned that Breyer would want to stay on longer than the end of this term. If he had and Dems lost control of the Senate, McConnell could continue to play the games he's played with the Supreme Court since the days of Merrick Garland’s nomination. Let’s just say a lot of headspace is cleared not having to worry about all the wild scenarios that could have happened. So, while this is not one of those seismic Supreme Court picks where it shifts ideological control, it was imperative for Democrats to make sure that at the very least the current balance of the Court remained, but with a younger Justice. So that's tremendously important.
MURPHY: No doubt Democrats are breathing a sigh of relief over this Gibbsie. The Nightmare Scenario – Breyer waits, R’s win, and one of the three liberal SCOTUS seats winds up flipped to a conservative as Mitch McConnell’s deep cackle reverberates across America – has now been defanged. In fact, with the high stakes removed, this SCOTUS confirmation may be quite boring… which would be a good thing for the country. No ideological change for the Court is threatened and the D’s have the votes to win. A win is what Joe Biden desperately needs right now.
GIBBS: Absolutely. This is an incredibly important moment for Joe Biden, not just as President, but also as the former chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee (who, in fact, oversaw the confirmation of Justice Breyer in 1994). Biden pledged during the campaign to nominate a Black woman to the Court and he reiterated that promise yesterday, pledging a nominee by the end of February. That's tremendously important for Joe Biden and for Black Americans who want to feel far better represented on the nation's highest court. The White House’s confirmation that it will be a Black female judge means the pool of people to select from is very small and distinctly knowable. Needless to say, it is imperative for this White House to get a win. It is imperative that with the woman they nominate, they have a full and complete understanding of the advantages and the pitfalls of the nomination and they feel like they're able to navigate the nomination to the finish line. The great news here is the White House staff is led by Ron Klain, who has guided several Supreme Court picks to confirmation.
Then, of course, there is the backdrop of a 50-50 Senate. The good news for Democrats is Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema have stuck with Joe Biden on judicial nominations. In fact, as NBC’s Frank Thorp Tweeted out, there have been zero no votes from Dems on Biden’s 42 Senate confirmed judicial nominations (let that fact sink in). And just to be clear, all you need here is 50. The filibuster for Supreme Court Justices is gone and therefore this is all about making a good nomination, fulfilling your campaign promise and then getting this person confirmed quickly with the majority you have.
MURPHY: I doubt even the Democratic virtuosos of the circular firing squad can screw this one up, but we will see. Team Biden should remember the risks of swinging too big ala BBB however. That is the one way he could turn a political gift into a bad stumble. Understand that there is a tactical debate going on inside the GOP over all this. The knife and fork eaters, eyeing the close Senate races this year are arguing “let’s scream far out liberal for a bit and then move on, back to inflation and other issues that hurt Biden more. We’re gonna lose this, we’ll be hammered for being against a historic Black judge and we’ll lose in the end. That helps Biden, not us. This is a bad battle, we have better options to score political points.” The mouth breathers, most of whom are learning the words to the New Hampshire state song, counter that “we go all in. Hell hearings. Avenge Brett Kavanaugh! They played rough then, we play rough now. Tora, Tora, Tora… ATTACK!!! I’ve got more to say, but I’ve got a Tucker hit in ten minutes, so… gotta go!” My guess is the smarter heads will prevail. Some ideological criticism during the hearings, but then move on. So the key question is will Biden avoid giving the R’s any big opening with a nominee who can be effectively attacked as being super left wing. Then we are back into Dems Want to Defund the Police land, which is not a win for Biden and would squander this opportunity. I think there is a safe, easy smart choice for Biden here Justice Gibbs, but I’ll let you go first!
GIBBS: Well Justice Murphy, my leading candidate is Ketanji Brown Jackson, who was just elevated recently to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, the number two court in the land, with 53 votes. So, all the Democrats plus Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Lindsey Graham voted for her. We’ve come a long way in these battles. Scalia was confirmed 99-0 and now we're talking about 50-50. I actually think 52 or 53, or even in excess of 53 votes, is not out of the realm of possibility. Collins and Murkowski have pretty bipartisan records on Supreme Court justices. The theory of the case for Lindsey Graham has always been, it's not about who he would nominate, but whether he believes the nominee is qualified to be on the Supreme Court, which is why he has voted for Justices Sotomayor and Kagan of the current Court. And he mentioned on Wednesday that he believes Jackson is qualified. The other pool of Republicans to watch here is Romney, Burr, Toomey, Blunt, Portman, and maybe Sasse. Do a number of those Republicans, while they didn't support her initial judicial nomination, because they're retiring or because they want to send a message that it's time to change the way Washington works, vote to confirm the new Justice? That's why I think there's a potential for other Republicans. But again, if you're thinking about this in the real world, you just need 50. No need for anything else.
MURPHY: BINGO! My dear Gibbs, I totally agree. Brown Jackson is the smart move politically and an easy win that could attack some R votes (she got 3 in an earlier judicial confirmation) could deliver a useful restart win for Biden. Any callback to bipartisan success ala the infrastructure bill would be a coup for the POTUS.
GIBBS: Obviously, Joe Biden’s poll numbers are not good right now and in particular, many have noticed he’s struggling with Black Americans. In the most recent NBC News poll, Blacks gave Biden a 64% approval rating, down nearly 20 points. As Murphy taught us in the last newsletter issue, voter enthusiasm will be different in non-Presidential than in Presidential years, but if Democrats go into 2022 and suffer not just the normal decreases in voter enthusiasm among their base, but additional enthusiasm deficiencies among the people they need to get out most, well, that’s the difference between a bad election and a shellacking. Keeping his promise and landing a Black woman on the Supreme Court can surely provide some much-needed help here.
TIDBITS
GIBBS: My first tidbit is if we’re grading a Biden reset report card, there is good news. Today, the President is getting out of Washington and headed to Pittsburgh to talk about the economy. Next week, he’ll be traveling to New York to talk about crime and public safety with their new Mayor Eric Adams. He wanted to get out more often. It's good to see that that's now starting to get on the schedule and I'll keep looking for more and more of that.
MURPHY: The road is always good. I’d also add that if I were working for Biden, I think it is time for a smart and steady speech to the nation to explain what is going on in the Ukraine and what our plan is. It could elevate Biden and the country could use it. Especially as one can count on the media to cover it hysterically and scare the Hell out of everyone. Time for Papa Joe to frame it all up for the American People.
GIBBS: Turning to Georgilvania, and, in this case, Georgia specifically, which we haven't caught up on in a while, but there's a ton to talk about. Herschel Walker raised $5.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 and is sitting on a bank account of $5 million. Raphael Warnock raised $9.8 million and has (not a typo) $23 million in the bank. He's raised $44 million in this election cycle, which seems to me to put him on pace to beat the $125 million (also not a typo!) that he raised in the last cycle. These fundraising numbers are, for people like me who used to do Senate races, just truly staggering. And to be clear, that's just what the candidates are spending in these campaigns – it doesn’t take into account all of the outside groups that will also spend millions in these contests.
MURPHY: It’s a sign of the nationalization of Senate fundraising on both side thanks to our pal Mr Internet. Now a Dem fightin’ grandma slash retired teacher’s union shop steward in Bucyrus, Ohio can send $50 to a Senate race in Georgia and watch it intently from far away. And then give again. GA Sen will be that kind of national small donor race on both sides.
GIBBS: I will also just double click on a couple of polls that have come out over the last few days: a Quinnipiac poll and an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll showing the early political environment in Georgia. Interestingly enough, in the Quinnipiac poll, Herschel Walker is at 49% and Raphael Warnock at 48%. We are 10 months away from an election and we have a poll that essentially says that hundreds of millions of dollars is about to be unleashed on exactly 3% of the voting population who are undecided.
MURPHY: My advice is starting sending each of those 3% of voters a new Cadillac. It’d be cheaper. But then again I know you Chicago guys prefer a small brown envelope, right Hockey Puck?!? No,! I kid, I kid, the Democratic people. Sorry I’m an insult comic mood today. I recently bought the Great Don Rickles’ old custom set of chopsticks from his estate auction. We miss you Don! Continue Gibbs…
GIBBS: As I was saying, Mr. Warmth Jr, my advice is Buckle up if you live in Georgia. The Quinnipiac poll also had Joe Biden's approval rating at 36%, down from the 51% he got to win the state. Insert blaring red siren here. The AJC poll had him at 32% approval. Noting short of just terrible numbers. And then lastly, as I mentioned above, Joe Biden's approval with Black Georgians is struggling too. The Q Poll had Biden’s approval among Black voters at 70%, while Ralph Warnock’s job approval from the same group earned him an 87% approval. That's a big watch out for this White House.
In the meantime, we’ll be on the lookout for more on who Biden will pick for the Supreme Court. Have a great weekend!
Murphy and Gibbs