Is This Infrastructure Season? + Oh, No, Cuomo!...
Hi Hackaroos,
Okay, so you’re not out of the traffic jam yet with the infrastructure puns, but we think you’re getting there. We promise to keep it brief on that and move on to some other big storylines of the week – including where we think New York Governor Cuomo’s career is heading (likely to a witness stand) and our take on the big special elections from Tuesday.
Don’t forget to leave your comments and share with your friends (and foes)!
Let’s begin, briefly, we promise, again with Infrastructure.
We’re Now Just Calling This Infrastructure Season
Murphy:
Hey Gibbs. So Governor Cuomo just texted asking us if we could please open with infrastructure and leave him out of it. So, in the tradition of the last cigarette, we'll get to him in a minute. In the meantime, what do you think is going on with infrastructure? It’s looking good in the Senate, but that’s only the first hurdle right?
Gibbs:
Correct! It's full steam ahead. For people who are following, the Senate is likely to work its second weekend in a row (possibly a modern record). I think with any luck, by Monday or Tuesday, this will pass with a surprisingly large vote. The only decision left is how much longer to allow amendments that have thus far not really changed the substance of the bill. So, this remains on course.
Murphy:
I agree: it's Greased Lightning in the Senate. I still think people are underestimating the potential doomsday scenario I've talked about for the last few weeks: Senators Manchin and Sinema tank the much ballyhooed $3.5 trillion super-duper spending bill. In the bitter intra-Dem Senate negotiations that will follow, the big spending bill is (thankfully, I’d say) slimmed down significantly, which naturally outrages the Progressives, especially those in the House. This smaller, but still pretty massive spending bill then passes the Senate via reconciliation on a party line vote, but faces real trouble in the House where the Lefties are in full Revolt.
At that point the Senate’s bipartisan infrastructure bill could become fatally tangled up in said Progressive revolt. Speaker Pelosi, who has promised to only pass both bills together, will have her work really cut out for her if things get to that. (She’s gonna need both the baseball bat our friend former DCCC chair Steve Israel talked about on the Hacks On Tap podcast and a lot of White House help to pound it through.) Meanwhile the (mostly spineless) House R’s will be under tons of Trump and House GOP Leadership pressure to vote against the Senate’s Infrastructure bill. A GOP Member told me today that support for the bill is already starting to fade.
Gibbs:
One thing is for certain, Infrastructure Week is going to stretch well into the Fall with a lot of twists and turns. I still maintain while nobody is going to get everything they want, it is imperative for Democrats, by the end of this year, to have big accomplishments they can declare victory on, including a healthy-sized reconciliation bill, even if it isn’t the full $3.5 trillion. What Democrats simply can't do is snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Murphy:
Well, what we always know about the Democrats and infrastructure… it'll take longer than the Big Dig!
Lessons From The Buckeye State
Murphy:
We had a big day in Ohio with the Special Elections on Tuesday. Trump showed he still has plenty of muscle in a Republican primary. His candidate, coal lobbyist Mike Carey, won an 11-candidate (!) primary in the safely Red 15th CD with about 37% of the vote. Three other opponents (a party regular backed by the out-going Congressman, a libertarian Republican backed by Rand Paul, and a social conservative backed by Ohio Right to Life) together split a combined 40% of the vote while six other candidates split up the rest. So, Trump’s strong support clearly helped winner Mike Carey win a plurality, but it's interesting that a strongly-Trump supported candidate only got a third of total Republican vote. It isn’t 2018 anymore, however, when a Trump endorsement could quickly clear out a GOP primary. So, the OH 15 result is still a solid win for Trump Incorporated, but it doesn’t show the bone-crushing strength the Orange One used to wield among GOP primary voters. Robert, I'll let you go deep into the result in the solid Blue Ohio 11th CD (Cleveland). I’ll just say that it was impressive to me that Shontel Brown, the far more moderate candidate, quickly surged more than 20 points to knock out frontrunner Nina Turner, who we know best as a full colonel in Bernie-land. Much like Eric Adams in New York City, OH11 is a strong signal to the Democratic Party that there are big limits to the strength of the noisy-on-Twitter-yet-weak-on-primary-election-day AOC wing of the party.
Gibbs:
It was undoubtedly a big night for the establishment wing of the Democratic Party. Shontel Brown impressively came back from somewhere between 20 and 30 points behind, and I think this victory shows a few things. It shows the power in the party right now is behind Joe Biden and wanting members of Congress to get something done. Democrats control the White House, the House, and the Senate now. So, if you're going to get anything done, now is the time to do it. If people want to have theoretical debates in the teachers’ lounge at the local college, we can do that later, but that's not what people are looking for. They're looking for tangible accomplishments like they’ve seen as part of the COVID relief and recovery legislation and what they want out of the budget deal that’s coming. I think a big part of what clearly hurt Nina Turner’s campaign were her own words fighting fellow Democrats. Ads showed her saying in interviews that voting for Biden was like eating s&%t. Or the interview clip where she refused to tell people who she voted for in 2016. That means she either voted for Jill Stein or Donald Trump, and I think, in the end, a lot of that accumulated against Turner. Voters want results not food fights that don’t help them. Another big factor was how out front the Congressional Black Caucus in this race with members like James Clyburn (who we all can probably thank for President Biden), Bennie Thompson, and CBC chair Joyce Brown on the ground campaigning there last weekend in Ohio for Brown. I agree with you, Murphy, that progressives are playing a fairly large role, per your item and per what happened on the evictions moratorium, in the policy debates that are happening in Washington, but they're not doing that many of these contested winning races and adding to their ranks in Washington. So, if they envision themselves being a dominant force within the party, they've got to crack the code on winning special elections, mayors’ races in big cities, and lots of other venues. The reality is voters just aren’t where they are ideologically. The 2020 Presidential race proved it. The New York Mayor’s race proved it. And a lot of other races have too.
Murphy:
Exactly. They keep writing big checks that their electoral muscle can't cash (typical for the Comrades I might add). Another lesson for the Squad, which I'm sure they’ll also ignore when they get clobbered yet again, is to knock off the anti-Israel stuff. The Democratic Majority for Israel PAC’s Independent expenditure was clearly very effective for Brown.
Oh No, Cuomo!
Murphy:
So, on to Governor Cuomo! I've been saying for the last two years that one of the worst things Donald Trump did to American politics was totally obliterate the vital deterrent of shame. Guys like Ralph Northam, the Democratic governor of Virginia, learned that bad lesson and its simple playbook of never retreat and never, ever resign no matter how guilty you are. Just hole up in your fortress and wait. (You could argue the Clintons really started this trend, but it was Trump who really made a vile art form out of it.) I think Cuomo is clutching that playbook now, but the NY AG’s investigation that he was hoping would give him space and cover to fight from instead reads like an Al Capone indictment. So, where does he go, Robert? I know wherever it is, he won't go willingly.
Gibbs:
He may go several places. One, he may go to the witness stand as a number of district attorneys have requested access to the attorney general's investigation in order to possibly pursue criminal charges. I think the most likely outcome though is an impeachment. I totally agree with your point that Trump has empowered the “never surrender” strategy. If you look back in the even most recent political history 10 years ago, people resigned very quickly for a lot of different things. These days, I don't think that's the first option when some of this stuff crops up. I'm not even sure it's in the top three. Instead, it’s digging in. But what we are looking at here is most likely impeachment. I just don't see how even the most pugnacious fighter who Andrew Cuomo is can survive an investigation he sought, which lists where he broke state and federal law. I don't think you can be a sitting governor, and your role in the justice system is as a defendant.
Murphy:
I agree. I think that his pugnaciousness will now prove to a big part of the downside for him. First, Cuomo's always been somebody who operates through fear, not affection. So now, he's utterly alone. He has no allies, no friendships, and nobody will stick their neck out for him. It's a lot like the old Hollywood joke about the notoriously unlikable drumming genius, Buddy Rich. It was said that 20,000 people went to his funeral, why? They wanted to make sure he was dead! Now, Cuomo’s pugnaciousness not only leaves him alone, but it will motivate the Democratic Pols in New York to behead him very quickly and end this whole thing as soon as possible. (Note how quickly Cuomo’s old ally Biden publicly pulled the cord on him; it was a matter of hours, not days.) So, I predict a kangaroo court speed to these likely impeachment proceedings, and since the kangaroo in question looks so damn guilty, I don't see any way for even Crocodile Cuomo to hop out of this one.
The COVID Political Blues
Murphy:
Following up on our item from Tuesday about California Governor Gavin Newsom now facing freshly scary numbers in the thought to be dormant California recall election, brand new local polling in Florida shows a big dip in GOP Governor and known Oval Office craver Ron DeSantis’ numbers. The poll now suddenly showing a very competitive governor's race against former Republican Governor turned Democratic Congressman Charlie “chain gang” Crist. (It’s Florida, what can we say? Here are the numbers from our friend and Florida politics maven Peter Schorske).
Gibbs:
Clearly the politics of the Delta variant are no joke. It is it is going to affect lots of leaders’ approval ratings, just as it did at the beginning of this pandemic, watching them go up and down a bit like a roller coaster depending on what's happening in the news with the virus. And Murphy, you’ve alluded to the fact that this will almost certainly hit President Biden as well where economic pessimism is creeping back up and optimism about the near term is creeping down. We've seen this before, but it doesn't necessarily mean it’s any easier to navigate. It’s certain to continue getting worse before it gets better.
Murphy:
The COVID polling blues are back for incumbents. We both think President Biden is going to soon see some dropping numbers as well (our guess the White House had already seen private numbers showing this), which is yet another reason for the White House to go All Hands on Deck get this infrastructure deal done because Biden really needs a big political victory and he needs to get the House Progressive to understand that what's good for him is ultimately good for everybody with a D after their name.
TIDBITS
Murphy:
Here’s another tidbit about VP Harris. Kamala concerns™ continue to ricochet through the DC Democratic echo chamber. The concern about her political skills has been well earned by the VP’s all too frequent public missteps. Now, allies are coming to her defense, which is a good thing for her, but here’s a little advice to the Rescue Team: Step one when you’re having a quiet "how can we help her" dinner is not to go out and immediately leak the details and attendance list of the dinner to the media. The first rule of rescue club… is there is no rescue club.
THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEKEND
Gibbs:
We're at the seemingly annual game of tricks and withheld votes around raising the debt limit. The biggest challenge is the narrowly divided nature of Congress this time which may cause maximum havoc. The outcome would be nothing more than potential damage to our economic recovery and head shaking from people all over the globe watching to see the seriousness of American governing. It is long past time to figure out a way to manage our debt without holding it hostage for the whims of partisanship. In 2011, this got so serious that for the first time ever the federal government's credit rating was downgraded and the lunacy of throwing the country into this back and forth at a fragile point of economic recovery is beyond even the stupidity of Washington.
Murphy:
Yeah, it's a cheesy banana republic move no matter which side does it. (When either side goes into high umbrage up over this, it reminds me of the great Red Party vs. Blue Party gag from Moon Over Parador).
Threatening to blow up the debt limit is the political budgeting equivalent of running into a crowded room and waving around a big bottle of nitroglycerin. The Democrats are currently furious because they didn't play the debt limit game during the budget busting Trump years, but now the Repubs are pulling out this old chestnut as part of the looming fight over the $3.5 trillion/whatever-number-Manchin-and-Sinema-will-actually-agree-to domestic spending bill. Even though I agree that debt limit hostage taking is a bad move for the country and should be avoided, the larger issue of insane Government spending needs a real debate.
Gibbs:
Murphy you definitely sound like a guy who's run into the middle of the room holding nitroglycerin.
Murphy:
Oh, Hell yes! I do it all the time, just not with the full faith and credit of the government of United States of America.
Gibbs:
It looks too like Dems will not add the debt limit to their budget reconciliation bill. So add another thing to the docket that has to get done in the Fall. With this one, there’s no way around it so buckle up!
That’s it for this week. Have a great weekend (unless your last name is Cuomo) and see you on Tuesday.
Murphy and Gibbs