Is This Becoming a Normal Midterm?
Hello Hackaroos!
Sorry for the slight delay in the newsletter this week -- we were too busy catching up on all of the debates finally happening! Not to mention, with just under three weeks to go until the big day, if you look at the latest round of polls, things are starting to look more in line with the original predictions that the GOP is in for a good Election Day. We debate whether we think that’s the case and then give our review of the big Walker-Warnock debate in Georgia. Plus, some tidbits.
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Is This Becoming a Normal Midterm?
@hacksontapnewsletter: Talk your Democrat friends off the ledge today.
GIBBS: So, Murphy, we are entering the campaign phase I’d liken to the fog of war, in which everybody is looking at and seizing a single data point to prove their theory of the outcome or their hope of this election. Frankly, we are looking at all of this and guessing to some degree. Ominously, the CBS poll shows 65% of voters believe the economy is getting worse and that gas prices are going up again. AAA reported yesterday that after rising, gas prices are going down again. That’s a helpful reminder that polls are snapshots in time (usually a time period already in the rearview mirror) and not a prediction of what will happen. If you look at the CBS poll and if you look at the New York Times poll, the economy is becoming a bigger issue especially in comparison to abortion now than it was in August. We're still in a very weird election, but it looks like it's going to the more normal as we get into these final 21 days. Not to mention, if you've really got a Biden at a 39% approval rating, unless the Supreme Court redoes the abortion ruling sometime later this month, I'm not sure it's going to matter all that much.
Source: CBS News
MURPHY: A lot of polling as therapy animal going on. Partisans on both sides are very nervous and constantly trying to find numbers to cheer for. I think the whole year boils down to a simple question, one I’ve written about before: will this be a “normal” midterm (bad for the Ds) or is this time “different”? It’s always popular for the media and punditocracy to discover some new angle and predict that this year things are going to be different. Usually they are not (the President’s party has only had three really good first term midterm elections since WW2.) So we shall see. I do concede that this year things are a bit different. A vast phalanx of bug-eyed and lunatic GOP candidates running in multiple important Senate and House races, unpopular madman Donald Trump constantly scuttling around and trying to grab the election, strong voter heat against the SCOTUS decision to repeal Roe, record Democratic fundraising, etc etc. And we have seen a few legit clues that things might indeed be different in the NY19 special election and Kansas primary, along with strong Republicans for a Democrat efforts in many key races; more than I’ve ever seen before at the Congressional level.
At the fabled USC Center for the Political Future (check it out) the on-campus voter registration drive has seen record participation. How does it all end? I think this year is different, but not different enough. The latest NYT poll tells the story; a revert to mean. It’s the GOP’s year; just not as big as it could be without the toxic Crazy GOP factor. To quote the great political pundit Mary Chapin Carpenter, “the stars may lie but the numbers never do.”
Source: New York Times
GIBBS: Yeah and while the New York Times poll has gotten everyone crazy and I think some of the meta is probably right, the internals are a little off to say the least. On the generic congressional ballot question, the Times poll has women tied 47% for Dems and 47% for Republicans. I know one thing for certain and that there is and will be a gender gap in this race. There’s no way an equal number of women support each side. Not happening. If you look at the CBS poll, they had it at 48-40 in favor of Dems, CNN had it 53-36 Dems and FOX has it at 46-38. On Black support for GOP, the NYT has Republicans getting 18% of the vote. CBS had Black support for the GOP at 13, CNN had it at 11 and FOX had it at 10. So something is clearly off, but the headlines are driving the news anyway because it probably feeding into the narrative that things are swinging back towards the GOP.
The Reviews Are In for Walker, Georgia Ranger…
GIBBS: After watching the big showdown in Georgia on Friday night, in a normal world Walker didn't do all that well, but in the world in which he had low expectations, he probably exceeded those low expectations.
MURPHY: The GA debate was not the disaster for Walker that Dem CW was counting on. First, he did a world class job of lowering expectations. Second, he had the easier job; just repeat Biden, inflation, gas, cops. Repeat. Warnock – with high expectations as a powerful orator – was, well, bad. (He did better a few days ago against an empty podium when Herschel no-showed a different debate 2.) So, an underperforming Warnock and a mediocre at best Walker (where do I get a junior G-man badge?!?) was enough to make it a break even debate, which is a win for Walker. Now I know the sophisticates all scoff, like I just did, at Walker’s badge maneuver. But when decoding politics, always be sure to deconstruct things to their core. The silly badge deconstructs to “I like cops.” That sells for Walker in this election. Meanwhile, Warnock’s zig-zagging on the Biden support question made him look like an evasive politician, exactly the contrast Team Walker wants. I think, net-net, the Biden dodge hurt Warnock more than the badge move hurt Walker. Sorry CW. (To be clear, I still think Walker is totally unfit for office, but I’m not a Georgia voter pining for the economy of the Trump days and ready to send a strong message to Joe Biden.). The numbers show a pre-debate lift for Warnock, now the question is whether they’ll inch back Walker’s way now. I think there is a solid chance of that. Either way, I’d bet on a January run-off, so get ready for a GA Senate race that will never seem to end.
GIBBS: Murphy to your point, he pulled out the badge to prove he was with the cops. I was a tad surprised Warnock wasn’t a bit more aggressive in framing Walker more in the lens of “not ready to represent Georgia” as he mentioned in his opening statement. I’m not sure if he thought the moderators would do more of the dirty work of pressing Walker, particularly on his personal challenges, from violence towards his ex-wife or the abortion specifics with his former girlfriend. He didn’t seem to tackle the swings he usually takes on the stump at Walker and that allowed Herschel to frame his message simply and repeat it often. Partly, again, this is the power of expectations that Walker had lowered by a lot. Interestingly, Sunday’s no-show debate had Warnock in a more aggressive posture. Looking forward to seeing what, if any, effect this has on the upcoming polling we see from Georgia. I’m still betting this one doesn’t get decided until December. And hopefully like Sheriff Andy Taylor did in the great fictional town of Mayberry, let's just hope if law enforcement gives out a gun to go with the badge, it has the same ammo as Barney Fife’s gun did.
Last thing about Georgia and it’s on early vote. Monday, that started and more than 120,000 voted, a big jump from the 71,000 or so that voted at the beginning of the 2018 midterm election cycle. What it means we don’t really know as of yet, but this bares a lot of watching in the next couple of weeks to get a real sense of what this electorate really looks like instead of us all guessing.
TIDBITS
MURPHY: Speaking of debates, Monday night was the big debate between my friend Evan McMullin and GOP incumbent Mike Lee in Utah. (Disclosure, I’m helping Evan’s superPAC). You can watch here. It was a good night for McMullin.
And in a quick look over the pond, UK Tory leadership race loser (and Murphy-endorsed candidate) Rishi Sunak may wind up as PM after all. Liz Truss is in epic trouble over a shoddy budget that spooked markets at a titanic level. Her chancellor of the exchequer has been fired and nasty Brits have a funny online contest seeing which will last longer, Truss or a head of lettuce:
The smart money wants a pro PM the markets trust to step in ASAP. So the glint you see flashing from shadowy nooks of Westminster are Tory stilettos being sharpened for the kill. Rishi Sunak call your office.
We’ll see you later this week and, by the way, if you ever want to see us live and in person head over to our Speakers page at the Harry Walker Agency. We’d love to host your next big event!
Murphy and Gibbs