How Much Time Is Left To Get Something Done On Guns?
Hello Hackaroos!
Well, we’re trying to remain optimistic over some sort of gun legislation getting to the President’s desk at some point before the midterms. Though the longer things drag on in negotiations, the quicker our optimism fades. That’s where we begin before turning to some Pennsylvania politics and tidbits.
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Let’s get started…
IF NOT NOW, WHEN ON GUNS?
MURPHY: Hola Señor Gibbs! Greetings from the Pacific coast of Mexico where I’m investigating claims of quality control issues in Mexico’s magnificent Tequila industry. So far, so good… all seems to be in order! So what’s the latest in our nation’s Capitol?
GIBBS: Glad to hear it, Murphy! In a seemingly less exciting locale, the negotiations continue between Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut (no relation to my tequila sipping co-writer) and Senator John Cornyn of Texas, who Mitch McConnell tasked as to lead on behalf of Senate Republicans. Senator Murphy was on TV this weekend claiming he's “more confident than ever” that something can happen. Yesterday, Cornyn himself expressed optimism too. Could a deal actually be close to happening?
Now, Sen. Murphy was also quick to say whatever does happen is not going to be an assault weapons ban nor will it be universal background checks. He also knows that there aren't many days left to figure out a deal here. I thought the timeframe was largely by the end of last week, but the group of bipartisan Senators is largely giving itself the space of this week to strike a deal. Needless to say, unlike fine wine (or fancy tequila), the prospect of a deal does not get better with time. So, this is a big week for how all of that unwinds. Even with those caveats, the bar is still pretty high to get anything through the Senate. Senator Pat Toomey, who wrote the background check legislation with Senator Joe Manchin that failed even after the Sandy Hook shooting almost a decade ago, basically said in order for the Republicans to do something they're going to have to convince half the GOP caucus to act. I’m not entirely sure that’s the bar here as that may be impossible. I do, however, think there is a pathway to 10 Republicans who understand the GOP has to have a response here.
MURPHY: There is actual hope here Gibbsie, and it’s not (just) the gallons of tequila talking. It’s the right thing to do and it’s the smart political thing to do (an uncommon alignment too often in Washington, DC). Still, we both know it is a lot easier to stop things from moving in the Senate than it is to pass actual legislation. But background checks and red flag legislation does, on paper, seem to have the votes. But as I’m sure you will mention, an ugly chunk of political news came out of Buffalo this week when a thoughtful GOP Member started talking about a firmer gun control measure than even what is being talked about in the Senate. What’s your overall take?
GIBBS: Yea, the NRA and others are doing EVERYTHING they can to kill any deal before it can become real. I will say, Murphy (you, not the Senator), as optimistic as I’m trying to be, lurking in the distance are a couple of ominous signs. The first happened late last week with the NRA coming out against red flag laws saying, “the real purpose... is simply to empower judges to nullify Second Amendment rights with the stroke of a pen." So again, the NRA continues its play of drawing the line that to them there is no such thing as any sensible gun safety policy. There's either you have a gun or you don't. The second thing, as you mentioned, is Republican Congressman Chris Jacobs of Buffalo, New York, someone who was endorsed in the last election cycle by the NRA, less than a week after coming out for raising the age for gun ownership and for banning assault weapons, dropped entirely his bid for re-election. His announcement brought howls from Republican leaders in his district who threatened to run against him in the primary. It was stunning in its speed and ferocity and doesn’t bode well for finding those aforementioned 10 Republican Senators. An ominous sign indeed that despite the weakness of the NRA, based on a plethora of investigations and attempt to file for bankruptcy, they’re still powerful enough to prevent anything from happening on guns.
In Texas, though, on a more positive note, John Cornyn is getting some help and some space to do what he’s doing in the Senate. Over the weekend, some big GOP donors took out a full-page ad in the Dallas Morning News urging Texas Republican leaders to do something, but we’ll see if their dollars matter over the NRA.
The question, of course, is will it be enough? It’s going to be an interesting week. I may need dome of that tequila now, Mike.
MURPHY: I know a bunch of those cats – I worked closely with Ray Hunt in the past – and they are serious and thoughtful people. Good for them; they did this because they mean it and hopefully it’ll send a strong message to GOP electeds. There is another aspect of this people should pay attention to: the gun lobby is split. On one side is the NRA (full of its own factional politics) which over the years has turned into a business of sorts; specializing in whipping up grass roots gun owners into a lucrative fund-raising frenzy. Uneasily eyeing that is the National Shooting Sports Federation, a group funded by the gun makers which is far more pragmatic and supports some moderate gun control measures. Of course, the two groups are locked in a cold war. (I wrote a movie about all this for HBO a few years ago based on Paul Barrett’s excellent book: Glock: The Rise of America’s Gun. Still in development, but it’s quite a story; Lawyers, Guns, Sex and, of course, lots and lots of money…) The bottom line is the NRA, while still powerful, is in its weakest position in years. Here’s a good clip on the split in the gun lobby.
GEORGIL-VANIA: WE HAVE A WINNER
GIBBS: The heart doctor, Mehmet Oz, is now officially the GOP Senate nominee. I will say, Murphy (again, my co-writer, not the Senator), Republicans seem to have done this gracefully, which is important for how they put a winning coalition together for November, especially after a long and sometimes nasty primary battle. Yes, it took 17 days, but it wasn’t filled with a lot of shouting, court cases and bad blood. It's almost certain now that the Republican nominee is likely to be on the campaign trail for the Senate race before the Democratic nominee, despite John Fetterman winning every county in the Democratic primary.
A series of stories came out from Friday and into Saturday about the physical and political health of John Fetterman (FYI, they're called Friday news dumps for a reason because if you dump a bunch of stuff on Friday, it doesn't make people feel good about what you're dumping!). We've now found out through his own admission that he “almost died” before the primary. He admitted to being diagnosed with cardiomyopathy in 2017, which decreased the amount of blood his heart could pump, and, by his own admission, hasn’t done all of what he should have done to help take care of that condition. Then, he suffered a stroke. The confusion started when the campaign said just hours before the voting ended that he would have surgery to install a pacemaker with a defibrillator, not usually devices that go together. It leads to the very natural question of exactly what is the state of his physical health? What are his limitations? How will any of that impact his ability to be out on the stump and participate actively in a campaign? Voters will, rightly, want to know that he’s capable of having the physical health and stamina to be their next United States Senator. In a twist of irony, his opponent, Dr. Oz, is a heart surgeon. In a race that couldn't be more important to both parties, this is not a great start for the Democrats. My advice: get transparent fast and deal with it. Voters are not as stupid as you think they are. If you drag your feet and look like you’re hiding something, they tend to think you're hiding something! John Fetterman is hardly the first person to ignore important advice from their doctor, but getting his health back to normal and getting this political narrative under control must be the top two things on the campaign’s to do list. In his absence from the trail, the campaign continues as Fetterman released his first ad. As always, we’ll be watching this one closely.
MURPHY: Two imperfect candidates now facing off in a vital Senate race. What could go wrong? We’ll enjoy watching this one. Hint to Fetterman: honesty is the best policy. Don’t make the dissembling mistake twice.
TIDBITS
GIBBS: Murphy, is Los Angeles about to elect a billionaire, who was a Republican like seven minutes ago and currently serves on the board of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation, it’s Mayor?! Walk me through how this is possible.
MURPHY: The City of Los Angeles is a Democratic stronghold (65% Democratic) that Bernie Sanders easily carried in the last CA Presidential primary. So the usual pattern would be for the biggest Official/Lefty Democrat to win. In this race, that would be Rep. Karen Bass. But… the city is so berserk over a huge homeless crisis, rising violent crime and endless corruption probes of various city officials that a “clean up the mess” outsider candidate – billionaire developer and can-do philanthropist Rick Caruso – is in the hunt. Caruso, a former moderate Republican who left the party in 2011, is a former LA Police Commissioner and recently, a Democrat. Polls show Caruso and Bass are likely to finish as the top 2 in today’s primary and then go on to compete in a November general election. This is also a big change; LA Mayoral elections have traditionally been low turnout elections (hello union political power) held on sleepy days. Now, LA is electing a Mayor on a real election day, meaning more casual voters. We’ll keep an eye on it. (Disclosure: I’m for Caruso, a long-time friend.)
GIBBS: Looking across the pond, it looks like Boris Johnson survived the no-confidence vote. He’s now called for unity (read: no more votes on my political health, please!). Though something tells me there won’t be any keeping calm and carrying on in Parliament. He lost more than 40% of his fellow Conservatives, his approval is at 29% and he was booed attending the Queen’s Jubilee celebration late last week. The political lifespan of Prime Ministers facing no confidence votes also should send a shudder down the spine of Boris Johnson. Theresa May lasted six months after winning a no confidence vote in 2018, while The Iron Lady, Margaret Thatcher, lasted less than a week after winning a vote in 1990. Johnson won this battle, but he’s almost certain to lose the war.
MURPHY: Yea, he won but he’s still in real trouble. The Tories know the Game of Thrones murder book by heart and winning a party no confidence vote is not enough, particularly if the protest vote against the PM is large enough to send a message of discomfort and weakness. At over 140 votes against Boris it was. If the No confidence vote was under a hundred, it might be another matter, but have no doubt the shark fins are in the water now.
GIBBS: Finally, just our weekly reminder of what primaries are on the docket today:
California
Iowa
Mississippi
Montana
New Jersey
New Mexico
South Dakota
By the way, speaking of Iowa… the proposals are in to the DNC on which state wants to bump Iowa as the first in the nation. More on that in the weeks to come.
MURPHY: Note Georgia on the list. They will have a strong case to make.
As we mentioned in last week’s newsletter, the primetime hearings for the January 6th committee start Thursday so we’ll weigh in on all of the fireworks on Friday.
See you then!
Murphy and Gibbs