How Much Can Biden Still Get Done?
Hello Hackaroos,
So President Biden finally had some good news from the surprise jobs report last week. Is it the life preserver the White House needs to start a political comeback? What does that mean for the rest of his agenda before all attention turns to the midterms? That’s where we begin and then turn to discussing the grip Trump still has on the GOP. Plus some tidbits!
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Let’s begin…
Can Biden Build Back Better?
GIBBS: First, with the jobs report last Friday, Joe Biden had a pretty darn good week. Well, it’s only a week you say? He’s in a hole and what’s one week going to do? To me, building on last week and creating a few good weeks in a row is exactly the road to rehabilitation for his approval numbers ahead of the State of the Union on March 1st. Very, very few Presidents experience an event large enough for the population to readjust their view of their leadership style and significantly alter their approval ratings. So to see improvement (or to suffer the slow erosion of it), takes hard work week over week. And it’s not always a straight line. There will definitely be bumps along the way, but I do believe Joe Biden has an opportunity over the course of the next month to string a few of these good weeks together and begin this long, arduous process of political self-healing.
While legislative wins will be harder for all the reasons we’ve watched over the past year with a closely divided Congress, now made even harder with Senator Luján’s absence while recovering from a stroke in New Mexico, continuing to lead the global push against Putin’s military buildup along the Ukrainian border and the impending nomination of a Supreme Court nominee give him a real opportunity at some improvement. The average of his approval at the moment according to Real Clear Politics sits at 41% approve/53% disapprove. Going into November in that position would be brutal. The mission now is to try and get that up to 47% or higher. No easy task, indeed, and one that will require more than just one good week, but, hey, it’s a start!
MURPHY: I’m starting to feel like Punxsutawney Phil, Gibbsie.
We keep talking about hooks that could help Biden pull off and actual reset and address his gloomy poll numbers, yet the WH never seems to get it’s footing. Where is the nationally televised speech to frame the Ukraine Crisis, where is the smart deal of reforming the Electoral Count Act of 1887, where is the new smaller, can pass domestic plan in concert with Manchin? Nowhere. Slight hints sure, and the Senate process is a slow sloth crawl that Biden is powerless to really change, but no reason that POTUS cannot reframe it all politically with sharp communication. A few major speeches, some travel, etc. But for whatever reason, and I’m starting to think it is Biden driven, they cannot seem to bust any big moves politically. Meanwhile, the big clock is ticking and Biden’s political strength continues to melt.
King Donald’s GOP Reign Continues
Brandon Bell / Getty Images News
GIBBS: We have had a bit of a continual debate in this newsletter and on the podcast recently around Trump’s political health. That debate has mirrored some of the polling we’ve seen and commentary that surmised that Trump’s grip on the GOP has beginning to slip. Well, let me pick this debate up and say again I just don’t see much of this purported loosening! Take the last 10 days or so and there has been exactly ZERO evidence of Trump’s grip being less. It started with the former President declaring should he return to the White House he would pardon the rioters he incited to storm the Capitol on January 6th. Next, the leadership pf the Grand Old Party stepped in to censure GOPers Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney who are looking for the truth around those events on January6. And then, to top it all off, the Party passed a resolution calling that insurrection “legitimate political discourse!” That’s right folks, just a few good people out doing your normal pepper spraying of police, storming the U.S. Capitol, all in hopes of overturning the 2020 Presidential election routine! Very legit!
It all shows you Trump is large and very, very much in charge. And the Party leadership is going along with it and it’s being met with little to no resistance on Capitol Hill. Stunning, but true. As an aside, this is precisely the messaging Dems need from Republicans if they hope to claw back and be competitive in November. It’s crazy all on it’s own, but it’s even crazier when your substituting Trump’s 2020 grievances for a forward looking political message for 2022.
MURPHY: You love to beat that gong Baron Gibbs, but I think you are missing the bigger point. The question is not whether primary-fearing GOP pols fear Trump today – they sure do – it is will Trump be this strong in a year or 18th months. Most elected pols in both parties obsess on the rearview mirror. Trump was all power last year and last month so he will be next year and next month too. That can be a dangerous assumption in politics. Out in primary voter land there is clear polling showing an ebb of support for a Trump-tatership. For the first time, a majority of Republican voters say they are more loyal to the GOP than to Donald Trump (by nearly 20 points.). That’s a complete flip from a year ago. The question is will that reverse, or continue as we reach the 2023-2024 primary season. That, is the thing to watch and I think it is unclear. Trump’s obsession with crazy 2020 election is stolen yowling is a weak hand for Trump to play, even inside the party, yet he seems to be obsessively committed to it. That’ll hurt him. But, we’ll see.
Meanwhile about 150+ Republican resistance fighters came out of their caves to sign an open letter protesting the RNC’s shameful attack on Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger as well as the committee’s shameful white washing and near embrace of the Jan 6 insurrection. I guess the once great RNC will have to change it’s name now to the RTC; the Republican Treason Committee. Many an old school GOP operative like me has spent the week shedding a quiet Iron Eyes Cody tear…
…to what has happened to an institution we spend decades working to build. (Historical note: among the signers to the protest letter were the leaders of the Reagan White House political office. Old pros from the greatest days of the Cause. Well gone guys.) You can read the letter here.
TIDBITS
GIBBS: Because as you all know, I am fascinated/obsessed with Georgia in 2022. The latest fundraising numbers out of there show in the races for Governor and U.S. Senate, Democrats find themselves in the odd position of being more flush with campaign cash than their GOP opponents. In just two months, Democratic Gubernatorial hopeful Stacey Abrams raised $9.2 million, beating sitting Gov. Brian Kemp's six month haul by nearly $2 million. Trailing far behind both, with about $1 million raised, is former Sen. David Perdue. In the Senate race, incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock nearly doubled the haul of likely GOP opponent Herschel Walker. Early money helps campaigns make valuable investments that can pay off later, like in November. While Dems have raised boatloads of money in 2018 and 2020 in Georgia races, they didn't have that early money advantage.
MURPHY: Interesting doings there, Gibbsie. Democratic millionaires and billionaires have united to fund Georgia! (Actually a lot of it is internet driven small contributions from across the entire country; the new milk of modern political fundraising. Jesse Unruh would be astonished.)
The most interesting number to me – on the GOP side – was GA Gov Kemp blowing away his gubernatorial primary challenger ex-senator David Perdue. Normally, CW would assume a Republican facing an opponent who has full and vocal support from El Supremo Donald Trump would be cooked. But Kemp is a tough cookie who is very comfortable operating in the right wing jungles of the GOP. I think GA Gov is a frontline Repub primary that Trump could lose. Another sign… if it happens.
We’ll see you on Friday!
Murphy and Gibbs