Have The Democrats Got Their Groove Back?...
Hello Hackaroos,
So now that President Biden probably has former arch nemesis Joe Manchin to thank for possibly getting at least a chunk of his agenda through the Congress this year, are the Dems actually in a better position than they were a few months ago? That’s where we begin before the politics and consequences of Speaker Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan. Plus, some tidbits ahead of today’s big primaries and more.
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Let’s begin…
Misery or a Miracle 98 Days Until Election Day?
GIBBS: I am not normally an optimistic, glass half full kind of guy in politics, but there are some bright spots emerging in the 2022 landscape for Democrats, namely in their chances of keeping the Senate under Democratic control. While nothing is assured and lots can change, it’s hard to imagine Dems could be in a better spot right now in the Senate. The GOP has nominated weak candidates, many of whom are running lackluster (at best) campaigns with anemic fundraising totals. If you look at the tossup Senate races right now (AZ, GA, NV, PA and WI), Democrats are arguably in stronger positions in each race as I write this. Arizona is poised to join the ranks tonight of states nominating GOP candidates that walk into the best political environment for them in years trailing their Dem opponent. In the next tier of Senate races, Dems are the clear favorite in one (NH) and have a decent chance to pull an upset in either or both of the other two (NC and OH). To be clear, given the President’s approval rating virtually none of this should be happening with a little less than 100 days to go. So, will they keep control? That is still very much to be determined. The challenge, of course, is closing the deal. Recent history, unfortunately, isn’t as optimistic as I am. If you look back at the last 4 off-Presidential year elections (2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018) the party out of power has wound up the big winner on election night. So, can the overall political environment steadily improve enough so people view Biden in enough of a better light to buck history? Republicans have done a lot to help given the slate they’ve put up and the races they’ve run. The bottom line, I believe, is there’s still work to do to see that atmospheric political improvement enough to keep control. Yes, it feels better, but we've still got a long way to go to get there.
MURPHY: Indeed, Gibbsie. The big question now is simple but important. Does this growing Democratic hope about surviving the midterms reflect a new reality, or is it just bubble think? Have the D’s been down so long that any spark of good news is causing undeserved euphoria? It’s true that the GOP is moving into pure Keystone Kops territory in many of the most important Senate races, not to mention a few real swimming with a cinderblock necklace situations in several Governor’s races. (Today’s primary in Arizona being a prime example, as is Pennsylvania.) It is possible. Biden is on offense now (particularly if, as Joe Manchin points out, the Congress can pass his deal before the August recess.). But, being Jurassic, I’ve seen pretty summer hopes get crushed in November before. The right wave can carry plenty of deadwood and bad candidates can stun everybody and win. Bloomberg has a good piece reminding us of a political oldie but goodie “The Misery Index” (where you combine inflation and unemployment into one simple number reflecting the real world economic pain that voters are feeling.). And as the Bloomberg story shows, the latest Misery Index numbers are daunting for the Democrats. So watch the fundamentals and the Biden numbers they are driving. Without real movement, I think the House is lost for the Democrats and the GOP, as of today, still has an edge (less than it should be though) in the race to control the Senate, clown shoes candidates and all.
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as politically useful as the Manchin deal is for President Biden, it isn’t done yet and the Sinema trap door is creaking. Falling through the floorboards is still possible as the Senate races toward the big August recess. As noted above, getting this done now, so the Dems can go out and campaign on it is vital for them.
GIBBS: Yeah, well for some reason, Sinema is planting her flag firmly in the ground of protecting wealthy traders and their carried interest loophole. In reality, closing it makes sense, but nets just $14 billion in the overall bill. If she opposes it, simply take it out and have her support the rest. The sooner the better for every Dem to get this passed. As for votes, if you're a Senator with weekend plans, I would cancel them now.
Pelosi’s Taiwan Tour
MURPHY: This brain dead caper of Speaker Pelosi’s drives me nuts. Why does she has to have her own foreign policy? Why can’t Speaker Pelosi just stick to her job of passing the Biden agenda (and losing the House)? The House doesn’t do big foreign policy. Now to be fair, I’ll give her solid credit for always being on the right side of the Chinese Communist thug issue, but now is not the time for a silly PR stop in Taiwan that will not move any meaningful needle. Instead it just makes trouble for zero strategic gain. (Plus it makes Biden look weak, AOC style.) Apparently nobody in Pelosi world understood that Chicom Top Number One Supremo Xi has his own huge domestic political moment coming up: the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party is just weeks away and Xi has big, big plans afoot to use that party Congress to deeply lock in his power. It’s not a moment when he can look weak, or wait for it… lose face. So her timing on this Trump level blundering Amateur Hour is awful. I’m all for putting the needle to the misbehaving Chinese (there is much to do on that front), but this is not a smart nor effective way to do it. Still, now that she has willingly blundered into this mess, she has to go. The Chinese have told us they forbid it so we cannot back down. Like President Xi, we cannot show weakness in this moment; the world’s leading Democracy can never back down to dictators. But this whole mess is an unforced error by Speaker Pelosi. The Chinese will retaliate; and the net winner will be Putin and other enemies.
GIBBS: This one is a tough call. I applaud the Speaker’s constant support of a democratic Taiwan and for speaking out forcefully on human rights, something low on China’s list of concerns. That being said, I worry that this trip will unnecessarily provoke China now and cause it to do something stupid and dangerous in response. That simply isn’t in our best national interest. American intelligence is worried that China has begun to accelerate its plans for reunification and Xi is watching closely the events in Ukraine. At this point, however, the Speaker has to go. China can’t dictate American movements in and around Taiwan. I fear, however, what the Speaker hoped to get out of this trip isn’t likely to be worth what could happen if China acts recklessly or begins to feel cornered and thinks it should invade sooner. The best outcome for the United States is to continue to provide political and military support to the maximum extent possible so when Xi does decide it's time to invade, Taiwan has the weaponry arrayed to make him think long and hard about becoming bogged down like Putin.
MURPHY: Honorable Gibbs, as the great Chinese people say: “Beat the drum inside the house to spare the neighbors.”
TIDBITS:
MURPHY: Big Primaries today. A short take. Trump jumped on the Tudor Dixon bandwagon in Michigan gubernatorial race. (She is one of those weak candidates who can win. Ironic since she’s been attacked by her main opponent for not being MAGA enough.) Arizona is a big one; Trump vs. Pence and the GOP regulars. It’s close; with conflicting polls. Trump’s crazy candidate Kari Lake is the favorite, but she has a credible challenger who has a shot at an upset. A win for team sanity would be a big Georgia-like loss for Trump. (And unlike IL, MD and PA avoid throwing the Governor’s mansion to the Dems.) I’m happy to report that World Class creep (and disgraced for GOP Governor) Eric Greitens is thankfully circling the drain in the Missouri Senate primary. Finally, keep an eye on Congressional primaries in Michigan and Washington state where Hero GOP House Members Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA) and Peter Meijer (MI) are fighting off serious Trump-backed challengers. Both voted to impeach Trump.
GIBBS: Lots and lots on the ballot today in the way of candidate races we’ll be watching, but don’t forget in Kansas today, abortion is literally on the ballot. The outcome will tell us a bit about how this issue could play out politically (it’s a pretty conservative red state after all) and will have huge consequences for women in the state. More on all of this later in the week.
MURPHY: In other news, I could not resist tweeting this one yesterday since it’s a delicious case study of a story designed to make highly entertaining trouble.
See you on Friday!
Murphy and Gibbs