Has the MAGA Madness Finally Out-Trumped Trump in Pennsylvania?
Hello Hackaroos!
Well, the primary madness continues with the big Pennsylvania race coming up in less than a week. What does the rise of Steve Bannon favorite Kathy Barnette mean for Trump and the GOP? Plus, our quick takes on the latest round of subpoenas from the January 6th committee and a special Mailbag edition responding to your suggestions for which state deserves to beat Iowa in the first in the nation race.
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Let’s begin…
The Power of the Subpoena?
GIBBS: Big news from the January 6th Investigative Committee yesterday as they issued 5 subpoenas to GOP Members of Congress, including likely Speaker in waiting Kevin McCarthy. These 5 have been in the news about the events of that day, they clearly talked to Trump and some were at his rally before the insurrection and they all had refused to voluntarily answer questions from the Committee. But, this is a big deal, even if it may seem like the obvious next step. Republicans are already threatening to subpoena Democrats when they take up investigations next year into a myriad of topics they're mad about. The reality, though, was that was always going to happen so why not take this step now of digging deep enough to find out all you can about January 6th (and what these Members knew) even if it's an unprecedented move for a non-ethics related case. Good for them!
MURPHY: Let justice be done!!!
The Pennsylvania Primary Palooza Continues
PA GOP Senate candidate Kathy Barnette earlier this week (Credit: Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images News)
MURPHY: So Gibbs, when is that big vote on abortion coming up in the Senate?
GIBBS: Well, Murphy, I can’t blame you for missing it, but it actually already happened.
MURPHY: Ahh, shocking. Nice work, Schumer! You really know how to light a barn on fire don't you? As I wrote in our last issue, there should have a been a big build-up for this vote, a march on DC, the works! Instead, we got the electricity of a vote on national plywood day. No wonder the D’s are losing. But that said, the Senate midterms situation is quickly getting more interesting, eh Gibbsie?
GIBBS: Well, Murphy, speaking of lighting a barn on fire, what do you make of the rise of MAGA favorite Kathy Barnette in Pennsylvania? Is this the classic multi-candidate field with two people attacking each other that makes way for a third candidate or is this something about what she's saying that’s actually making a difference with the primary voters?
MURPHY: Well, Gibbs, rumbles of fear started to move through even the MAGA establishment about a week or so ago when public polling showed her surging in the PA Senate primary; in a near statistical tie for first place. Because late in the campaign polls are essentially a still photo of a moving train, the message was clear. She’ll pull into first place in a few days and according to double secret tracking I’ve seen, it’s happened. So, it's not certain, but quite likely, MAGA to the 50th power grassroots activist Kathy Barnette is going to steamroll both Trump's endorsed candidate (and televised miracle vitamin pitchman) Dr. Oz and Wall Street Master of the Universe turned rental costumed MAGA Yahoo David “You know better than this pal” McCormick. Barnette, with a history of crackpot statements, is so far on the MAGA/loon scale that even Trump is now dropping statements attacking her. But it’s almost surely too late. The primary voters could smell fake on both McCormick and Oz (who have been busy enhancing that suspicion with multi-million dollar attack campaigns aimed at each other) and have now found the real deal. It all reminds me of the sci-fi movie where the mad scientists are experimenting with a deadly virus in act one and the audience is all thinking, “Uh oh, careful what you wish for…”. And sure enough by act three the virus escapes the lab and puppies start turning into huge spider-like killing machines. Well here at GOP Inc. our deadly lab rats have escaped! We may nominate a loon in a key Senate race (like we’ve done before. Google “Delaware/I’m not a witch.”). Not to say the Dems are exactly on their game either. The national Dems snubbed totally electable Rep Conor Lamb for Bernie/Jesse Ventura hybrid Lt Gov John Fetterman, so this general election is gonna be something else. And the stakes are high; the screams of rage and the unmistakable sound of a crystal whiskey tumbler shattering against an ornately paneled wall you hear coming from Capitol Hill is surely due to an open window in Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell’s office. This nomination, should Barnette surge to victory, could screw up a must win GOP Senate seat. Oh well, reap the whirlwind and you eventually wind up in the hellish vortex.
GIBBS: My official response, Murphy: laissez les bons temps rouler! Let the good times roll! This sounds awesome. We mentioned this a while ago Murphy, but it’s the idea that while the House looked fairly cooked for Republicans, the Senate was going to depend on the quality of the nominee, on the Republican side particularly. And, what undoubtedly was keeping McConnell and others up at night were flashbacks to 2010 with Christine O'Donnell (the not a witch from Delaware), Sharron Angle in Nevada and Ken Buck in Colorado or 2012 with Missouri’s Todd Akin. Undoubtedly, the Republican Party, in those two election cycles alone, left maybe three or four Senate races on the field they easily could have won were it not for nominees that didn’t fit the state or the times or said something monumentally stupid in the election. Obviously, it's dangerous, and it gives the Democrats an important advantage in an important race, but I think the fear you have Murphy, and I do as well, is that the political environment is so bad and has slid so far in favor of Republicans, that it could be that a couple of really wacky GOPers both get nominated and make it through to winning the general election. And it just shows you that in a year like this, there aren't a lot of political brakes on what could happen.
Source: Real Clear Politics
MURPHY: Yeah, two bad outcomes are looming. First, Barnette costs the GOP a seat it has been holding. Or two, a totally unserious person is elected to the Senate. Though you pretty much get that with Fetterman too, but not at the Barnette level.
GIBBS: Yeah, Pennsylvania is going to be fascinating to watch. And, again, as a reminder, it's just a few days away.
MURPHY: Yup and it’s not only a madhouse in the Senate race, you’ve also got the far too clever by half Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Attorney General Josh “super cynic” Shapiro, putting up a million dollars attacking whack-job Republican candidate Mastriano as too pro Trump and too strong on questioning the 2020 election results. In other words, Shapiro has become extreme Mastriano’s largest donor by far, actually helping him win the GOP nomination. Here is the ad Democrat Shapiro is running.
It’s a venerable tactic, but it's very irresponsible when you're not just trying to get the other party to nominate a less competitive candidate, but actually helping an election denying maniac in a big Republican year get a valuable nomination. Careful what you wish for Josh…
GIBBS: While we all wait to see with bated breath what happens in PA, we saw West Virginia and Nebraska provide Trump his first split decision (we know he's a big boxing fan) on primary night earlier in the week. He saw a win in West Virginia for Trump against somebody he attacked for voting for the Bipartisan Infrastructure bill in a state that long has admired its members and senators for bringing back federal dollars for infrastructure, but lost in Nebraska, where even his endorsement couldn't get someone accused by eight different women of sexual misconduct over the line for the nomination. It was a big win in that state for outgoing Governor Pete Ricketts, who had endorsed Jim Pillen. So, a split decision for Trump on Tuesday with some big bets coming up including Dr. Oz in PA, David Perdue in GA, among others there. It will be fun to watch over the next few weeks.
MURPHY: Yeah, what interests me about West Virginia and Nebraska was the local angle. In West Virginia, two congressmen were redistricted into the same seat and David McKinley, the venerable Member who had represented most of the district, had the full support of Joe Manchin and popular Governor Jim Justice. The other member, a recent carpetbagger from Maryland (Alex Mooney) only had Trump. Yet he won by double digits (McKinley’s vote to establish a Jan 6 Commission was a lucky break for Mooney as well.) McKinley’s big loss also punches a significant dent in the conventional wisdom fable that Joe Manchin has godlike power over the voters of West Virginia. Score this for The Donald. In Nebraska, you had GOP Governor Ricketts machine versus Trump Inc. in an interesting three-way race featuring a Trump candidate, a Ricketts candidate and more traditional Republican named Brett Lindstrom. The Ricketts man won. (And Lindstrom, like Matt Dolan earlier this month in Ohio, got to a strong third by running up big numbers in larger more metro counties.) So it's quite fair to say that only one out of around three Nebraska primary voters voted the straight Trump path, which is a telling sign. My take away from both races is that Trump remains very formidable in Republican primaries, but no longer has complete supremacy.
GIBBS: I don’t disagree with that, but I'm still of the belief that while he might not have supremacy and may lose a few races, if the nominating primary for President was held today, he’d still be the nominee in 2024.
MURPHY: Thankfully it isn’t!
A Special Mailbag First In The Nation Sweepstakes
GIBBS: Two weeks ago, we wrote about the Democratic National Committee’s decision to potentially open up the nominating calendar for future Presidential contests. Anyone with an even passing interest in politics is familiar with the problems encountered on Caucus Night 2020 in Iowa. As I’ve said before, I love the place and with good reason – Obama’s win their launched his rise to the Presidency later that year. It’s a place where you have to work voters one-on-one at the State Fair, in countless town hall events across the state all in the effort of building a grassroots army to show up on a cold night in January. The DNC has now received proposals from 18 states to be in the lineup of the first four states.
So, we asked, where do you think we should start?
We received votes from you for Pennsylvania, Nevada, Minnesota and New Hampshire. Frankly, all good picks. New Hampshire, by state law, probably ends up first if the DNC eliminates caucuses, as looks likely. Nevada probably goes second, followed by South Carolina and, finally, another state likely TBD. I must admit Pennsylvania is growing on me as a pick. It looks a lot like the country’s overall Democratic coalition and it’s a swing state, which is a must for me.
A couple of you left comments we have included below. Thanks for sharing your thoughts with us!
John Douglas Reid
In no way does Iowa deserve the attention of the press nor the resources of the candidates to be the first state in the Union for the Presidential Primary. The state doesn’t look like America, as it has little diversity among the voters AND it doesn’t even let the voters vote! It is a caucus process and Americans vote for its leaders it does not caucus. First three states should honor tradition and be from Northeast, South, and West: New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. I admit NH doesn’t look like America either but it does have a good mix of political diversity.
Sharon Pugh
At this point is it really going to matter whether we have presidential primaries or not? I live in a red state and after 2022 it will not matter what Democrat runs against Trump or a Trump acolyte. The Secretary of state will only allow Republican electors. Unless we elect people who believe in democracy and the Constitution to positions that oversee elections, we are done for.
GIBBS: So Murphy, what do you think? Will it be photo ops of ordering cheesesteaks in February?!
MURPHY: Thank you mail bag writers! My only bet is the new big primary state, if there is one added to calendar, will sure as Hell not be Pennsylvania. Not now.
We’ll be back next week with our Hacks take on whatever ends up happening in the Pennsylvania primaries. Have a great weekend!
Murphy and Gibbs