Hacks Special Mailbag Edition Part II
Hello Hackaroos!
Well, Boris Johnson finally took the hint and is calling it quits. Here in the US, it’s Jobs Day with President Biden getting some good economic news as separately he tries to respond more forcefully two weeks after the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade. Plus, former White House Counsel Pat Cipollone testifies before the January 6th Committee.
All in all, a busy holiday week in Washington as we head into the weekend. We start by weighing in on the politics of the Boris resignation before answering more of your submitted questions.
Next week, we’ll have more on the reaction to the shocking scenes and news out of Japan where former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated while campaigning for a parliamentary election last night.
For now, we’ll leave you with the words of our Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel:
Let’s begin…
BYE BYE BORIS
MURPHY: As we noted a few weeks ago, this was going to happen. Far too many Tory MP’s voted thumbs down on Boris during the no-confidence crisis a few months ago and at that point the die was cast. I think the most remarkable thing is how long cagey Boris fought it out. In the end, it became a UK parliamentary version of Monty Python’s classic Black Knight “Tis But a Scratch” bit…
Now the real skullduggery starts as the Tories pick a successor. The race starts without a clear frontrunner, so stay tuned for our Yankee Hacky analysis as the race heats up.
GIBBS: Exactly right, Murphy. We pointed out when Boris went through the formal “no confidence” vote that the end was now foreseen. Both Theresa May and Margaret Thatcher won “no confidence” votes, but still failed to survive the next few months. So, the writing on the wall around his tumultuous tenure has been obvious. The tumult seems destined to continue until the moment he walks out of Number 10 on Downing Street as he’s now pledging to stay until a successor is picked, even as some are, well we say, ready for quicker change! It’s been a remarkable chain of events from Johnson’s leading Conservatives in December 2019 to the largest majority they’d enjoyed since 1987 and giving him a Brexit mandate. Just a few months later, COVID struck and missteps piled up, leading to this. Will be fascinating to watch what comes next for America’s closest ally.
Now for some more of your questions. Thanks for sending! Always keep the coming!
Roxie Karpen: In a world of vilifying the other side, how have you maintained an open mind, pushed against name-calling and accusations, and remained friends?
MURPHY: My secret is a tiny, high-tech set of highly effective ear plugs that I pop into my head whenever Gibbs or Axelrod start winging on about with lefty foolishness! Also, see your political opponents as fellow Americans, and never enemies. Respect them and their passion for doing what they think is best for our great country.
GIBBS: As my old boss said you can disagree in this business without being disagreeable. Too simplistic? Maybe, but Mike is right that we can’t start from the premise that everyone you disagree with is your mortal enemy. Generally, I’ve found that the more you talk to one another, the more you find you can agree on or at least co promise on to make some needed progress.
Ross Meister: After the mass shooting in suburban Highland Park and the Roe v. Wade ruling, my sisters and I got into a discussion about how they perceive getting policies done on gun control (expanded background checks and an assault weapons ban) and getting Roe v Wade codified into law. Their frustration is that they don’t believe our laws and ways of making laws is broken, because the minority has too much power and elections can be swung by dark money. I countered that a Democratic supermajority would be needed to get the right to an abortion codified and that type of gun control legislation passed. I also said that people need to get their friends and family involved to vote in off year elections. Is the truth somewhere between our arguments? What say you
MURPHY: I’m more with you Ross. Persuade people, organize, win elections. It’s fine to blame it all on dark money and gremlins and minority power, but whining won’t win any elections. The minority having too much power is a tricky argument. Our federalist system allows states to make a lot of their own decisions and Montana is not New Jersey. The whole trick to Democracy is balancing majority and minority rights. Over time, our political system does reward majority views however and I believe that will be the future outcome of Roe.
GIBBS: I’m also with you on this Ross. The way you make laws is to win elections. Winning elections involves persuading a majority of people about what you’re for and gives you the ability to implement it. And, you’re so right about off-year elections. All too often, people vote in a Presidential election contest, but don’t vote two years later when the person they supported for President needs their help in Congress to have the support to get their agenda done. Also, I agree with Murphy that over time it’s really hard to see something so unpopular like the Roe reversal being able to sustain itself. But, to make that happen means needing more who see it that way in Congress and State legislatures around the country.
David Schrantz: Never before in the last 100 years has there been a pandemic that killed over 1 million Americans, and this was not helped by President Trump not acknowledging the fact it was here, and here to stay and vaccines were the only way out. Then we had supply side issues when China shut down and most of our products are sourced from that country and the docks shut down. Then we had Russia invade Ukraine for its political gain and its natural resources. Where in all of this, is the ability for Democrats to spread the word that what is happening has never happened in a century? Why is it that nothing seems to be said that US companies have not done a good job of keeping supply side closer to home and instead chose to have it overseas to make more profit? The Democrats have done a POOR job of communicating what is going on. Why? And do you believe it could change the November election if they got their best spokesperson out (Pete Buttigieg) and started making some noise about the factors behind what is real and what is not real?
MURPHY: The Democrats are not good communicators, but their problems are deeper than that. The messages you mention probably work well with you, but don’t assume – as people too often do in politics – that everybody else responds to the arguments that move you. Pre-pandemic plenty of people were happy with the global supply chain since it meant cheaper goods in many instances. Put a fine American-made lawnmower (if you can find one) next to one made in Asia or Mexico at a 25% lower price at your local hardware store or Home Depot and you’ll get a fast lesson in pricing economics. (I’d buy the American one, but I grew up in Detroit.) The bottom line is people vote their economic interest (not their economic class, sorry Bernie), so to win more elections the Democrats need to compete in that arena in a far more effective way.
GIBBS: David, all that is true and much of it is compelling. The challenge though for any President is people expect you to see around corners, anticipate some of those challenges, respond quickly and effectively and help avoid those pitfalls. Now, we know with a global pandemic that’s impossible. The American people think the President has superpowers they just don’t have in the ability to simply get something done with the snap of their fingers. Some of the challenges, like supply chains overseas, have been moving that way for decades so fixing something like that isn’t ever going to be easy. What makes this patch likely harder on the Biden presidency is he ran on restoring a sense of calmness, security and order out of Trump’s chaos. It worked well through about this time last year when COVID spiked again and the exit from Afghanistan began. Lastly, as one of those (ahem!) Democratic communicators Murphy, I can tell you the challenges go far beyond communications in the sense of how to solve this. What you mention are big, global challenges and trends. Americans’ anxiety is not likely to be assuaged with better communications whether it's Biden or a GOP comms whiz like Ronald Reagan.
Christopher Michael Bodewell: Regarding Biden’s issue…some thoughts for y’all...
MURPHY: I think my wise old pal Jeff Greenfield is on to something here. He lays it out well; the Democrats have big choices to make and they are all painful. Biden’s age is a big problem, and Kamala is a clumsy candidate. But… how do you work the internal politics of the Democratic party against a Black candidate in the traditional on-deck job? (This is one reason I’ve written that Stacey Abrams made a poor decision to run for Governor again in this tilt GOP year. Another loss (which I think is likely) and she’ll badly dull the once shiny appeal that could have put her seriously into the Democratic Presidential primaries.) A final factor in support of Greenfield’s observation; once the Democratic Presidential primaries leave the white electorate of the NH primary, the contest (pending potential calendar changes for 2024) heads south, the Democratic primaries chock full of Black voters. This makes the theoretical Operation Dump Kamala even harder and may give a Harris Presidential candidacy a bit more resilience than current CW is assuming. The whole thing is a real pickle for the Democrats. (Although the GOP’s pickle of “our frontrunner is a madman” still reigns supreme…)
GIBBS: First, 2024 is complicated, so let’s stipulate that. From the macro view of this, I remember when Bill Clinton was left for dead after 1994, only to be re-elected overwhelmingly in 1996. Barack Obama had a terrible midterm in 2010 and his numbers sank even lower through a good part of 2011, only to be triumphant in 2012. On the GOP side, Reagan’s story around 1982 and 1984 are similar. Midterm elections don’t predict the outcome of a future re-election campaign. Second, let’s see how any of these candidates perform before we either bury them or crown them. If Biden decides not to run, I don’t think that should cause panic on the Dem side. Campaigns have a way of showing one’s capacity to do the far harder job of President. If Kamala Harris runs, she’ll likely have a crowded field, will have to overcome her poor campaign performance in 2020 and earn the nomination. So, too, will others who run for the nomination. No one will be coronated and no one will be dumped. The voters will pick the winner.
We also conducted a highly unscientific poll of all you esteemed Hacks on Tap subscribers on who you think should be on the '24 presidential ballot in either party. Here is some of what you replied with … which says a lot about both parties’ current leaders:
- Andrew Stone replied, "God save us."
- Interestingly, no one suggested Biden, Kamala or Trump.
- DEMS: Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, Roy Cooper, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders
- REPUBS: Ron DeSantis, Glenn Youngkin, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence
MURPHY: Where’s Gina?! I do think there is going to be real energy for a generational change candidate in both parties. Keep an eye on CA Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is making highly unsubtle early moves toward a potential 2024 candidacy (triggering quite a backstage rumpus between CA Democratic pols who may be forced to choose between Newson and his fellow Californian Kamala Harris if the Democratic race breaks open). The other names above on the D side are also legit contenders, with Pete Buttigieg in the lead. Illinois moneybags Governor J.B. Pritzker (fresh off dollar bombing a GOP crank into the Illinois Republican nomination against him, and thus guaranteeing an easy reelection) also recently visited New Hampshire. On the GOP side, the Trump Lites (DeSantis, Sen. Tom Cotton, Sen. Josh Hawley) are one faction with more old school conservatives like Cruz and Pence also lurking about. Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who is sort of a Lite anti-Trumper, is sniffing around (enough to earn a nasty social media slap from the Orange Menace last week) as is hard core anti-Trumper Gov. Larry Hogan of MD. Others will join the list, with mega state Governor Ron DeSantis the clear GOP muscleman at this very early stage.
GIBBS: If Biden doesn’t run, there will be a HUGE number of people who jump in the race. Murphy will start printing his Gina t-shirts again! But, the likelihood that anyone can handicap the winners this far out is foolish. For one, a national campaign is hard and it requires a lot of skill and stamina. We have no clue how almost all the competitors running will fare in that environment and that limelight. As I said/ranted recently on the podcast, the world is littered with Presidents to be that never happened because they ran terrible campaigns. President Scott Walker anyone? I remember going to dinner with a famed political pundit and prognosticator in October of 2007. As I sat down at the table, I had my points ready for why, though lagging in the polls, Obama had a great shot at the nomination. After just a minute or so of my talking about it, my dinner companion told me to save the spin as we were destined for… Hillary vs. Rudy in 2008.
Laura M: What do you think of the latest Hershel Walker drama? Will it matter with the voters in Georgia?
MURPHY: On paper, Herschel Walker should win (and Gov Kemp too), it’s a GOP year. But… GOP Hacks have been worried about Walker since he announced. Why? They fear Walker is not built for the heavy weather of a tough political campaign, especially in the high wire period after Labor Day. This Daily Beast story from this week is a scary tell that the welds on the Walker for Senate airplane wing might be dangerously cracked. The question now is will Herschel’s apparent addiction to fibbing continue and become a “thing” in the campaign that breaks through. The whole key for Democratic Sen. Warnock’s survival is finding a way to move the focus off punishing Joe Biden and onto Walker’s problems. Easier said than done, but Walker has given them plenty to start working with. So It might be time for Team Walker to fake a coma for a while, until like Nov 2nd. (Relax, I’m kidding.) But they do have a real candidate problem and while wave years are very forgiving to weak candidates, I’m sure the whiskey sales near the Walker Campaign HQ are quite brisk.
GIBBS: And, let’s not forget, Walker had a cakewalk of a primary. He’s simply not been tested. He skipped the debates, which I believe was a huge mistake. This is a new arena for him. It’s not football and his offensive line isn’t in shape to block well for him and he’s not ready for the other side (sorry, had to work in a sports analogy!). Why not get a feel for what’s coming by participating in debates for a race you were likely to always win. I bet I’m not the only person who thought that and if his campaign still shielded him from those exchanges, they know he wouldn’t fare well in them. But, unlike a House race, he isn’t going to be able to hide in a statewide race. The continued drip, drip, drip of bad news and poor performances can easily make the small difference at the end. Before I end, I need to give some credit to Sen. Warnock and his campaign team. They’re tested and they're sharp. In a race like this, the campaigns and the candidates will matter. This is going to be a close race and, as Murphy said, should be one the GOP wins, but right now it’s their biggest concern.
Cole M: Are you Hacks more of a lager or IPA type? What's the Hackiest tap favored by Hacks on Tap?
MURPHY: Guinness here…
GIBBS: I like a good amber myself. So Fat Tire or Dale’s Pale Ale for me, please!
Thanks again for all the questions. We’ll see you next week!
Murphy and Gibbs