Five Big Questions With Five Weeks To Go
Hello Hackaroos!
Well, we are officially five weeks out until the big day and with lots of questions remaining around what is going to be the outcome on Election Day, we choose five that are top of mind for us and try to come up with some answers.
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Let’s begin…
QUESTION 1: IS THE DEMS’ SUMMER FANTASY OF “NO WAVE” MELTING AWAY?
GIBBS: You can sort of guess who had the pen on the first question?! Murphy, something tells me you’re going to say, you were right!?
MURPHY: I was right. Alas. Red wave, blue wave… the key point is it’s really a MIDTERMS wave. That’s why it has mightily zapped both Republican and Democratic Presidents over the years. Americans just like to push the “punish” button two years into a new President’s term. Add surging inflation to that trigger happy instinct, a shaky stock market, fast-rising mortgage rates and a POTUS who seems to turn into a malaprop comic:
....every other speech… well I’m just not surprised that the situation is reverting to the mean as the election comes in for a landing. That’s more than enough to melt all that summer polling happiness that had the Dems happily wallowing in a big, sweet confirmation bubble. It’s turning into Situation Normal, and that’s grim news for the Democrats. Now all that said, a depressing squadron of chuckleheaded GOP Senate candidates and a likely surge of young pro-choice voters could help the D’s pull out a few close ones, but don’t bet the ranch on it. As we go to press, there is yet another big blow up in the Hershel Walker race in Georgia. (It appears Hershel went undercover, apparently fighting against abortion rights from the inside…). What do you think Gibbsie? Is it enough to sink Walker? I’m far from sure.
GIBBS: To be clear, Murphy, I thought this question should be “Is it still the economy, stupid?” Given that the two sides are running quite different campaigns - with one side focusing mostly on the economy with a side of crime and immigration and the other on abortion rights and democracy – whose issue set is likely to carry the day in 5 weeks? In the House, I still think the GOP has the edge and likely to take control come November. While the GOP will be in the majority, I don’t think we are looking at a “shellacking” like 2010 or 1994. The Senate, as of this writing, I believe is more likely to go to the Dems than I thought just 24 hours ago. Yes, Pennsylvania has tightened for several weeks now and is going to be a very close race (as we’ve been saying for a while). Wisconsin is looking like a tougher road for Dems. But the big news out of Georgia last night around Herschel Walker, the story about his paying for a girlfriend’s abortion in 2009 and his son’s Tweets about all of it, means the GOP absolutely MUST win the PA race to have any real chance at Senate control. If the Dems take PA, they can split GA and NV and still have 50 seats. Keeping at least Georgia in the Democratic column looks more likely to me now than it did at this time yesterday (though I still think Georgia will be close). If the entire election for Senate control comes down to the Keystone State (it’s always been one of the reasons we focused on it and Georgia starting months ago), I still like Fetterman’s chances more than Oz’s, given the strength of the Josh Shapiro campaign for Governor and Oz’s tougher unfavorable ratings. Look at the Suffolk/USA Today poll from this morning and, yes, you see the race tightening from a couple months ago and Fetterman’s fav/unfav at 45/44, but Oz popularity sits at 34 fav/51 unfav. With 5 weeks to go, I’d rather be Fetterman.
QUESTION 2: WHAT SHOULD BIDEN AND TRUMP DO WITH FIVE WEEKS TO GO?
MURPHY: The Trump answer is simple. Hide. Better yet, fake his own death. “A nation mourns today, after a bizarre meat loaf eating contest cost the life of an American President. Love him, or hate him, Donald Trump was a towering figure…”. But we know he needs attention like a lizard needs warm sunlight, so he’ll put himself in the middle of the race anyway he can. With President Biden, the challenge is more complicated. Is it time for a lengthy personal inspection of the Navy installations on Guam? There is a good argument that is the best play. I thought for a long time that Biden out hammering the R’s on obstructing the popular stuff he’s done (that nobody knows much about, ask the WH Communications Office about that) could move the needle. But I’ve lost faith that he can execute that. So if it were my call now, I’d go to Operation Low Profile.
GIBBS: It’s clear Trump isn’t going anywhere, in fact very much the opposite. He was in Michigan for a rally and let’s just say the AP headline isn’t exactly what you want as a GOP candidate hoping to win over enough independents to get elected.
And the drip, drip, drip you hear is the continual storyline out of Mar-a-Lago around classified documents. So, buckle up Mitch McConnell!
As for Biden, I don’t think they’ll be a lot of campaigning in most places over the next 5 weeks, as most Dem candidates are outrunning the President’s approval rating and eager to keep the focus on the issue choice (no pun intended) I mentioned above rather than reverting to a referendum on President Biden. Raising money and motivating the base with some strategic appearances in bluer states makes sense but, like Obama in 2010, there won’t be a lot of heavy lifting expected here in swing states.
@hacksontapnewsletter: Confidence in the face of implosions, from both parties.
QUESTION 3: WHAT NEWS CYCLE WINS THE DAY?
GIBBS: Let’s start by welcoming back to the Supreme Court for their next session and using it as a reminder of what they did in the Dobbs decision last June. But I still think that if you're a Democrat or Republican, you're thinking about both how people are feeling about the economy and what's the chatter out there about its direction. Consumer confidence got a nice bump last week, showing Americans are more optimistic about where the economy is heading. And while real voters don’t read government reports to decide how they feel about the economy (that happens when they’re buying gas and groceries, paying bills and getting their paycheck), I do think the upcoming Consumer Price Index report on Thursday, October 13th is likely to drive coverage one way or the other about the direction of inflation in an important way, given how close that is to the election. What follows that data will be a reaction in the stock market and endless commentary, so it’s an important date to circle on the calendar. Also on that day? The likely final televised hearing of the January 6th Commission in Congress. It’s why, Murphy, I know you’ve said show me the polls in the middle of October. Well, we’re almost there!
MURPHY: I think ears are quickly closing to Washington squabbling. Are you better off economically now than you were just a few years ago? I think that more than anything will drive the election.
QUESTION 4: WILL CAMPAIGN OR CANDIDATE QUALITY MATTER MOST?
GIBBS: This is a trick question and the answer is both, though candidate quality has the edge here in 2022. I have no doubt some races that should very much be in play for the GOP are struggling in an environment (hello, a first term Dem President polling in the low 40s and inflation at a 40-year high!) where they should be in a much, much stronger position. Doesn’t mean some of those candidates won’t win, but I think there is a real ceiling on what the GOP can do in the Senate given some of their nominees. That’s in no small part due to the imprint of Trump on this race and why McConnell has worried about his candidates for months. How will top of the ticket GOP struggles (Gubernatorial and/or Senate races) hurt down-ballot chances in the House? Again, there’s a lower ceiling here than there ought to be. As a former campaign hack, I also think in super close races having a better on the ground campaign can really matter. No, it can’t outrun the surge of a big wave, but I believe it can absolutely mean the difference between being on the right end of 50.5% to 49.5% and the wrong end.
MURPHY: I’ll get a nasty note from my brothers in the Amalgamated Bipartisan Union of Campaign Consultants for this, but… campaigns are over-rated. Important, and once in a while vital, but usually impactful only at the margins. I think the Democratic campaign edge in the Senate races is worth something, but in a wave midterm, well, every seen a hurricane pick up a house and move it down a street? I have, and recently. So we’ll see. But without their candidate edge, and mostly better campaigns, have no doubt the D’s would be in even deeper trouble and the Republicans would be easily running the table in the Senate races.
QUESTION 5: WHAT COULD THE OCTOBER SURPRISE BE?
MURPHY: Gibbs finally comes clean and announces he’s been with Trump the whole time…. Barring that, who knows. My best wild guess is something in foreign policy, maybe a scary Putin move if his army continues to disintegrate in Ukraine. There could also be headline legal developments in Trumpland. Or, God Forbid, bad health news affecting a SCOTUS Justice or key Senate candidate. A huge Dow plunge. We will just have to see…
GIBBS: To me, the likeliest possibility is a big stock market collapse given the uncertainty globally around markets as well as fears on whether the Fed is doing enough or too much (please note I said possible not probable). Also, there have been far too many Putin and nuclear weapons articles for anyone’s liking in the past few days, but I’d hope even he isn’t that stupid. Locally, we just saw one of those surprises happen in Georgia less than 24 hours ago and the Walker campaign has its work cut out for them over the next five days, let alone the next five weeks, just to survive. I’m also guessing there is more to come in other important races too as the opposition research files get emptied (no sense leaving good material unused this year)!
See you on Friday!
Murphy and Gibbs